10 world conflicts Trump will take on in 2025

As the countdown to a tumultuous year winds down with just three weeks until President-elect Donald Trump returns to office, the incoming U.S. leader is set to inherit an array of open-ended conflicts abroad that will test his election night promise to “stop wars.”

In vowing to oversee a more peaceful tenure than his successor-turned-predecessor, President Joe Biden, Trump has also voiced a desire to reduce the United States’ involvement in foreign disputes, particularly those in which he saw greater risk than value for U.S. intervention.

But given the potential for some of the most volatile of these ongoing conflicts to directly impact U.S. interests at a time when the nation is engaged in a global great power competition with rivals such as China and Russia, the stakes are high in the second Trump administration’s efforts to revamp foreign policy in order to “Make America Great Again” on the world stage.

Expanded Hamas-Israel War

The war that began with an attack led by the Palestinian Hamas movement against Israel on October 7, 2023, has expanded across the Middle East, drawing in Iran and its Axis of Resistance coalition. It’s one of the most complex and volatile conflicts Trump will likely face.

Trump, a traditional ally of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has openly warned that the roughly 100 hostages still held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip must be released before his inauguration, or else “there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.” But as the president-elect has also voiced his demands for an end to the conflict altogether before he takes office, he has at the same directed some criticism toward Netanyahu for his handling of the protracted war.

Conflict still rages in Gaza despite some apparent progress in Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks, a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement that is set to expire days into Trump’s second term and the shocking downfall of another key Iran ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, at the hands of a lightning rebel offensive.

Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthi movement, continues to fire missiles and drones at Israel from abroad, while also attacking vital shipping routes, all in defiance of strikes from Israel and the U.S. Another Iran-supported faction, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, has also struck Israel from abroad and targeted U.S. troops in the region.

While Trump may be openly averse to bringing the U.S. into another “forever war,” he has frequently threatened to wield more intensive military action as a deterrent. How he will navigate the precarious fault lines of a fast-changing Middle East in which today Iran and Saudi Arabia have maintained a China-brokered partnership even amid the chaos of multiple conflicts and open discussions in Tehran of rethinking an official ban on nuclear weapons, could prove the first major test of the incoming administration.

Russia-Ukraine War

Like the war gripping the Middle East, the bloody clash between Russia and Ukraine soon approaching the three-year mark has the potential to upend the regional and even global balance of power. Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II also marks one of the most significant divides in U.S. foreign policy when it comes to the approaches heralded by Biden and Trump.

Biden has adopted a steadfast, yet costly strategy in supporting an unconditional victory for Ukraine. Russia, meanwhile, has slowly but steadily advanced on the battlefield with maximalist goals of its own in seeking to demand international recognition for its disputed annexation of large swathes of Ukrainian territory, along with its demilitarization and neutrality, among other stipulations.

Trump, a longtime proponent of better U.S.-Russia relations, has expressed support for a swift diplomatic solution he has claimed could be achieved within 24 hours of his inauguration. Although he has yet to release any official outline for his plan, Vice President-elect JD Vance has hinted that the proposal would include effectively freezing the current lines of control, where Russian forces occupy around 20 percent of the neighboring nation.

Neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have publicly indicated any willingness to waver from their positions. Rather, they have separately voiced their hope that Trump, who has often bragged of having good relationships with both leaders, would more closely align with their respective visions.

Meanwhile, European allies who have been largely united under Biden’s doctrine will likely also face tough questions over the future of support for Ukraine if Trump opts to cut a deal. They may also face a reckoning if Trump comes through with his demands for NATO member states to significantly increase defense spending.

Syria Civil War

While Assad’s downfall marked perhaps the most significant turn in Syria’s civil war that first erupted from clashes between government forces and an array of insurgents in 2011, the rebel victory has brought with it new potential risks.

After half a century of Assad family rule, reigning over Syria today is the former Al-Qaeda offshoot of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, now going by his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, pledges to oversee a freer and more inclusive future for his country. While Golani has officially rescinded links to extremist jihadi ideologies, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led faction in control of nearly a third of the nation, has expressed skepticism toward the new leader’s intentions, especially as clashes erupt between the SDF and the HTS-allied, Turkey-backed Syrian National Army.

Trump has expressed admiration for what he considers to be Ankara’s prevailing role in the rebel victory, remarking that “Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria.” While the events unfolded, he argued that “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT,” while Vance voiced skepticism of Golani’s victory, linking past Islamist advances in Syria to “the mass slaughter of Christians and a refugee crisis that destabilized Europe.”

During his prior time in office, Trump had called for the total withdrawal of U.S. troops in Syria, of which there are around 2,000, according to the most recently released Pentagon figures that appear to double previous estimates. Since winning the election, the president-elect has continued to signal doubts as to the utility of maintaining U.S. troops in the crosshairs of multiple warring factions.

Adding to the complexity of Syria’s civil war is a large-scale incursion by Israel into the United Nations-patrolled buffer zone of the disputed Golan Heights hours after the fall of the government. In 2019, Trump broke with traditional U.S. foreign policy in recognizing Israel’s annexation of the stretch of the strategic region it first seized back in 1967 and his reaction to the latest moves may have a significant effect on his relationship with the rest of the Arab world, which collectively demands respect for Syria’s territorial integrity regardless of its leadership.

Myanmar Civil War

While the events in Syria appeared to take the world by surprise, another massive shift looms in an even longer running civil war taking place across the world. The rebel alliance known as the National Unity Government and a coalition of ethnic militias have seized scores of territories, including strategic cities, from Myanmar’s ruling Tatmadaw military junta, which has received military aid from China and Russia.

Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has technically been in a state of civil war since first gaining independence in 1948, becoming one of several former colonies of the United Kingdom to become quickly mired in armed conflicts that continue to have serious global consequences. Violence in Myanmar has been largely fueled by rival ethnic nationalist movements and political uprisings, such as that which took place after the military-led State Administration Council seized power from democratically elected State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021.

The rebel People’s Defense Force was established by opponents of the coup to challenge the Tatmadaw’s rule. A number of ethnic armed organizations such as the Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Army and Karen National Liberation Army have also launched anti-government offensives in their respective areas of de facto control, putting the military in an increasingly difficult position as it is forced to spread its technological and firepower superiority on multiple fronts.

Meanwhile, the most powerful non-state actor in the country, the United Wa State Army, a close ally of Beijing, remains largely on the sidelines. China remains wary, however, over the risk of the conflict spilling over, a concern also expressed by other neighbors with stakes in Myanmar, including Bangladesh, India and Thailand.

While the U.S. has mostly limited its role in the conflict to imposing sanctions on the Tatmadaw and offering humanitarian aid to affected civilians, further destabilization could further draw major powers into competition over Southeast Asia.

Sudan Civil War

Sudan marks yet another example of a nation in which a recent transition to democratic rule was upended by a military takeover and internal conflict. Two years after the fall of longtime President Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, toppled a short-lived civilian government in 2021, only to face a 2023 insurrection by the Rapid Support Forces, headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti.

The large Arabic-speaking Northeast African nation has since been engulfed in violence between the former allies, with even the capital, Khartoum, divided. Both sides have been accused of human rights abuses and nationwide battles have spurred the world’s largest refugee crisis today, along with a worsening famine that threatens to further compound the suffering of the Sudanese people.

Sudan’s civil war has also attracted shadowy international intrigue, with foreign powers rarely advertising their links. Egypt and Iran are allegedly among the nations to have provided the Sudanese Armed Forces with military assistance, while Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates have been accused of aiding the Rapid Support Forces. Russia, which seeks to establish a Red Sea port in Sudan, has been reported to have provided assistance to both sides at one point or another.

Before the outbreak of the civil war, the U.S. had been steadily lifting long-standing sanctions imposed on Sudan during the reign of Bashir. In 2020, Trump removed the country from the state sponsors of terrorism list as Sudan agreed to normalize relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords.

Trump remarked at the time that Sudan had been long “ruled over by brutal Islamic dictatorships” and had been “a place of terror, genocide and many other tragedies,” but praised Burhan and short-lived Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok for overseeing the ultimately short-lived democratic administration that succeeded Bashir. The return of strife in Sudan, however, once again puts the U.S. in a difficult position as it strives for stability without finding a convenient partner on the ground.

Horn of Africa Conflict

With civil war raging in Sudan, neighboring Ethiopia also suffers from violent internal conflict stemming from the government’s simultaneous clashes with various ethnic militia movements such as the Fano movement in the Amhara region. Ceasefires with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Ogaden National Liberation Front have been tested by rising tensions as well.

Also fraying as a result of regional frictions are Ethiopia’s peace agreements with Eritrea and Somalia, which accused Ethiopian troops of conducting a deadly border attack against Somali forces earlier this month. The battle came less than two weeks after a deal brokered by Turkey promised to bring an end to a bilateral dispute sparked by landlocked Ethiopia’s suspected plans to recognize the independence of Somalia’s breakaway Somaliland region in exchange for securing access to the Red Sea.

Egypt, meanwhile, signed a defense pact with Somalia in September that reportedly included the deployment of up to 10,000 Egyptian troops to the East African nation. Cairo remains locked in its own dispute with Addis Ababa over the latter’s decision to build a massive dam on its stretch of the Nile River.

During his previous time in office, Trump expressed criticism of Ethiopia over its dam project that began in 2011 and echoed Cairo’s grievances. As for Somalia, he ordered the withdrawal of U.S. troops engaged in operations against the powerful Al-Qaeda-allied Al-Shabab and the local affiliate of the Islamic State militant group (ISIS).

Worsening insurgencies and the risk of another interstate war erupting in the Horn of Africa could threaten to spark yet another crisis in a region already flanked by Sudan’s civil war and Yemeni Ansar Allah strikes against trade vessels in the Red Sea in line with the war in Gaza.

Afghanistan-Pakistan Insurgency

While the U.S. formally ended its longest-ever war in Afghanistan in August 2021, a withdrawal planned by Trump and overseen by Biden, the Taliban‘s return to power after two decades has been marred by an increase in Islamist insurgent activity that has spanned beyond the country’s borders. Pakistan has witnessed a particularly severe uptick in militant attacks at a time when the country was already undergoing serious economic and political woes along with lingering tensions with India.

Among the most potentially dangerous groups to take advantage of the regional unrest is ISIS and its Khorasan branch, known as ISIS-K or ISKP. In addition to conducting attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the group has expanded its international outreach and operations, claiming two of the deadliest-ever attacks in Iran and Russia earlier this year and also directing a deluge of threats toward the West.

Although it appears to hold little territory within its base country of Afghanistan, ISIS-K has established a sophisticated online media presence, including multilingual magazines advertising acts of violence, commenting on world events and seeking donations via encrypted blockchain networks. The group has particularly sought to recruit Muslims in Central Asia, raising concerns in China, whose nationals have already been targeted by militants in Pakistan.

Now, another Islamist group known as the Turkestan Islamic Party, composed of ethnic Uyghurs seeking to establish a separatist “East Turkestan” in China’s northwestern Xinjiang province, has emerged victorious among rebel factions in Syria after supporting the Taliban’s victory over the government in Afghanistan three years earlier.

Trump, who delisted the Turkestan Islamic Party’s predecessor, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, from the Terrorist Exclusion List and has taken credit for defeating ISIS “in record time,” has regularly blamed Biden for mishandling the U.S. pullout from Afghanistan. But if the various militant groups active in the region continue to gain traction, Trump may be forced to once again become entangled in the kind of conflicts to which he has sworn to put an end.

African Sahel Insurgency

In addition to staging a resurgence in Afghanistan, ISIS has also found fertile ground to grow across numerous parts of Africa. Insurgencies involving affiliates of ISIS, Al-Qaeda and various other rebel movements in the sprawling Sahel in particular have already begun to reshape the region’s geopolitical allegiances.

After a series of coups from 2021 to 2023, new military-led governments in the neighboring nations of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger established a new confederation last year known as the Alliance of Sahel States. The bloc was organized to coordinate in their shared counterterrorism efforts as well as fortify their mutual push for breaking ties with France and other Western powers they accuse of pursuing neo-imperialist policies.

The shifts brought the region to the brink of an even bigger war in 2023 as the Nigeria-led Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued an ultimatum to Niger’s ruling junta. While the threat of armed intervention ultimately subsided, the collapse of ties between the Sahel trio and the West has been accompanied by a greater Russian presence in the region.

Moscow’s moves follow a broader trend among crisis-stricken African nations extending also to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique in which governments frustrated with the lack of progress in security assistance provided by European powers and the U.N. have instead turned to Russia.

With China and Russia investing heavily in Africa, the U.S. has long struggled to find its strategic footing on the continent beyond security partnerships, some of which also appear to be waning amid the current geopolitical trends, and commercial dealings.

Haiti Gang Violence

Far closer to U.S. shores, a crisis is swelling in the Caribbean nation of Haiti, where powerful gangs seized parts of the capital Port-au-Prince in 2020 and have since stepped up attacks on police, journalists and civilians. The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021 and the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry in February of this year have also deepened political turmoil in the nation now led by a transitional council.

Henry’s decision to step down came amid demands issued by two major gang coalitions known as the Revolutionary Forces of the G9 Family and Allies and the G-Pep, which this year set aside their rivalry to more frequently coordinate in operations. Beyond acting as mere street gangs, the two blocs have displayed military and political prowess, while being accused of vast human rights abuses.

As is the case with Afghanistan, Somalia and Sudan, the primary concern voiced by Trump on Haiti, to which he has referred as a “failed state,” has been in regard to the influx of migrants to the U.S., many of whom have fled poverty and violence at home. Trump has frequently expressed derogatory views of the Haitian community, sparking backlash among activists, some of whom have pointed out that the overwhelming majority of firearms wielded by gangs in Haiti originate from the U.S.

The conflict has already brought cross-border disruptions, with an incident involving gunfire directed toward a passenger flight last month prompting major U.S. airlines to suspend service to Haiti. A rampant drug trade also continues to flourish despite U.S. sanctions on alleged traffickers and regular patrols by U.S. warships in the Caribbean.

Mexico Cartel Violence

When it comes to the issue of illegal migration, a cornerstone of Trump’s campaign, no issue has been raised more frequently than the southern border. In addition to vowing mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, Trump has gone so far as to say he would “absolutely” consider U.S. military action against powerful drug cartels in Mexico.

As Mexico braces for hard-line immigration and trade policies promised by the incoming Trump administration, America’s southern neighbor is also contending with a fresh swell of violence rooted in a power struggle within its most dominant transnational criminal organization, the Sinaloa Cartel. The virtual civil war is believed to have been sparked by the arrest of two top leaders, Joaquín Guzmán López and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, by U.S. authorities in July.

Other top groups, such as the Jalisco New Generation, Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas, also remain active despite heavier handed tactics reportedly pursued under recently elected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

In Washington, Democrats and Republicans have long struggled to find a mutually acceptable solution on immigration reform. The challenge has proven particularly elusive as domestic troubles plaguing not only Mexico but also the so-called “Central Triangle” of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras along with rising violence in Colombia and other Latin American nations continue to prompt scores of asylum-seekers to undertake grueling journeys to the U.S. despite the inherent risks.

With Trump likely to push for more aggressive measures early on in his second tenure, their impact on net migration figures, the strain on federal resources and the effect on the economy will be key metrics to determining the success of the next administration’s policies.