2024 Breeders’ Cup Live Longshots and Value Bets for All 14 Races

While some people fixate on the Kentucky Derby each year, my favorite horse racing event has long been the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. I just love rapid-fire elite races across two days with every million-dollar stakes another chance for a big score.

If you had a truly rancid opinion in one race, just put it behind you and move onto the next golden opportunity to cash a big ticket in about 30 minutes.

If you prefer grass races to dirt, there are plenty of options on the turf. Prefer stamina tests rather than sprints, you are in luck at Breeders’ Cup. If you are a chalk player, you might get 3-1 or 7-2 on the most likely winner instead of 8-5 or 2-1 on a normal raceday. There is something for all types of bettors Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.

This yearly feature is all about big prices: double-digit value bets and 20-1 or 30-1 longshots. I’m not predicting longshots will win every race, or even the majority of the 14 championship races, but upsets frequently happen at the Breeders’ Cup and I’m on the lookout for longshots in every race that might lead to a hefty reward.

Let’s get to it …

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

FRIDAY

$1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 5:45 p.m. ET

Eight of the 12 runners in the main body of this field are shipping in from other countries. I had hoped for a better price than 7-2 on Japan’s #8 Ecoro Sieg, the tepid morning-line favorite, but apparently, he’s no secret. My longshot play in here is #4 Magnum Force (15-1).

Magnum Force has finished in the top three in all four starts and enters off a third-place finish in a Group 3 race in September at Doncaster behind two runners he’ll face again here, #2 Aesterius (9-2) and #3 Big Mojo (4-1). He was beaten by 1 ½ lengths in that race in his fourth career start and is triple the price of both runners.

$2 million NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, 6:25 p.m. ET

Favorites have won this race at a 47.5% clip in 40 editions, so it’s not typically a great spot for value, but 20-1 on #1 Vodka With a Twist jumped out to me as a terrific price on the morning line. She enters off back-to-back runner-up finishes on this track in the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes and Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Del Mar Debutante Stakes and has tactical speed for a very good trainer in Phil D’Amato. I think she can win.

$1 million John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, 7:05 p.m. ET

Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten multiple Group 1 winner #1 Lake Victoria (8-5 favorite) appears formidable, but with two short-priced fillies – local hope #7 Thought Process is 5-2 – there is value all over among the other entrants. U.S.-based runners have historically fared well in this race, so I’ll try #9 Kilwin (20-1) and #12 May Day Ready (20-1) to spice things up. Kilwin is stretching out in distance but enters off an impressive stakes win at Kentucky Downs in which she closed in the stretch on a course that favored speed all meet. May Day Ready improved to 3-for-3 with a well-timed win under Frankie Dettori in the Jessamine Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales.

$2 million FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, 7:45 p.m. ET

I would be surprised if one of #1 East Avenue (5-2) or #10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1) did not win this race, but the post-position draw did neither any favors. American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse runner-up #2 Getaway Car (20-1) fits my historical profile of a longshot winner in a race that has produced 10 double-digit odds winners in the last 25 years. If it’s not one of the favorites, I think Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s longest shot from among his three entrants can pull the upset.

$1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, 8:25 p.m. ET

Much of the focus in this race will be on bet365 Summer Stakes winner #11 New Century (5-2) and runner-up #4 Al Qudra (4-1), who shipped over from Europe for the quality barns of Andrew Balding and Charlie Appleby, respectively, for their final prep race. I think that could allow a couple of other international runners to fly under the radar. Japan-based #1 Satono Carnival (20-1) is 2-for-2 and most recently led from start to finish in a Group 3 race in his native country. He could find himself all alone in front and be tough to catch late. I also like Irish Group 1-placed #7 Seagulls Eleven (15-1) to outrun his odds for trainer Hugo Palmer on the firm ground in Southern California.

SATURDAY

$1 million PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, 3 p.m. ET

The logical win candidates look tough in here, but #10 Scylla (10-1) has been very good this year for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. The Juddmonte homebred filly by leading sire Tapit out of champion Close Hatches had been running around two turns, including a second-place finish to now-retired Adare Manor in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes Presented by Oak Tree Racing Association on this track. She cut back in distance when second in the Grade 1 Ballerina Handicap Aug. 24, and should be rested and razor sharp in her second try at this seven-furlong distance.

$1 million Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 3:41 p.m. ET

Trainer Charles Appleby is 10-for-20 in the Breeders’ Cup and you get 10-1 morning-line odds on #6 Star of Mystery. She’s made her last three starts in the U.S. with a graded stakes win and top-three finishes in her other two races in a Grade 1 and a Grade 2. I’d be thrilled with 6-1 odds or higher on an accomplished 3-year-old filly with five wins and five seconds in 12 starts. Where do I sign?! My best bet of the weekend.

$2 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, 4:21 p.m. ET

Well, I’m either going to look really, really dumb or like a genius for this selection but, heck, it’s Breeders’ Cup. Let’s swing for the fences.

Japanese invader #4 Alice Verite (20-1) is a true wild card in the Distaff. She initially was pointed to the Maker’s Mark Filly and Mare Turf and cross-entered here, but even though she would have drawn into that race, her connections opted for the 1 1/8-mile Distaff and the Kizuna filly’s her first start on dirt. She’s a Group 3 winner on grass in her native Japan and what jumped out to me in watching her last three races was the tactics. She opened up a huge early lead every time and dared the rest of the field to come and catch her.

Twice, she held on to win at 1 ¼ miles on the grass and most recently, she was passed late. Having never experienced dirt being kicked back in her face, I assume jockey Kyle Frey will be instructed to send her to the front and see how long she can hang on. With speedy champion Idiomatic retired, Alice Verite could find herself all alone in front entering the stretch with a shot at a massive upset in a race an eighth of a mile shorter than she has been running.

$5 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf, 5:01 p.m. ET

If you are starting to notice a trend, yes, I think Japan could have a big weekend Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar. #3 Shahryar (10-1) finished third in this race a year ago. While winless in two starts in 2024, he was second fellow Turf contender Rebel’s Romance in the $6 million Longines Dubai Sheema Classic in March. The 6-year-old by Deep Impact was fifth in his return from 4 ½ months off in August in his native Japan, but I view that as a steppingstone to this target. I’ll bet Shahryar to win and box him in the exacta with #5 Jayarebe (4-1) and  #11 Rebel’s Romance (5-2).

$7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, 5:41 p.m. ET

So much focus has been on DraftKings Travers Stakes winner #9 Fierceness (3-1), English classic winner #3 City of Troy (5-2), and a formidable Japanese trio that Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes winner #2 Highland Falls (20-1) has flown under the radar in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. A regally bred Godolphin homebred for two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, Highland Falls has really come into his own as a 4-year-old with two wins and two seconds in his last four starts. He has tactical speed, proven class, and terrific form. Highland Falls earned a very good 5 ¾ on the Ragozin sheets in the Jockey Club Gold Cup – by almost every speed figure a career-best effort – and with nine weeks rest, he is poised to take a step forward in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Highland Falls is “in fine fettle” as Wilmington (Del.) News Journal handicapper Rick Smyth was fond of saying.

$2 million Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, 6:25 p.m. ET

I did not like #2 Full Count Felicia’s (12-1) chances in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile, a race unkind (to be charitable) to speed horses, but I think she fits nicely here. She should be all alone in front in the Filly and Mare Turf with a chance to lead them a long way, coming off back-to-back pacesetting wins in a Grade 2 and Grade 1 at Woodbine. I’ll play her to win-place and key her in my exacta and trifecta bets with #3 Cinderella’s Dream (4-1), #7 Content (6-1), and #10 Moira (8-1).

$2 million Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint, 7:05 p.m. ET

Raging Torrent (10-1) rides a three-race winning streak into the Sprint for trainer Doug O’Neill, and I believe his morning-line odds offer very good value for an improving 3-year-old colt who has shown in the past the ability to rate off the pace and finish. He’s set the pace in his last three wins. I don’t see that happening here, but if he can tuck in just behind the early leaders, Raging Torrent should have something left for the final furlong. He looks like the type that fits right into that double-digit odds sweet spot – nine Breeders’ Cup sprint winners in the 9-1 to 23-1 range in the last 25 years – and will anchor my exacta with #10 Mullikin (7-2) and #4 Nakatomi (6-1).

$2 million FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF, 7:45 p.m. ET

This race looks like the deepest on the two-day World Championships cards. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the odds as we get close to post time and would love to get a square price on one of the two European 3-year-old fillies – #1 Ramatuelle (5-1) and #7 Porta Fortuna (4-1) – if bettors are scared off by the prospect of them facing older males here. I’m not. In terms of longshots, there really aren’t any I love in the Mile but I do think there is a good amount of speed in the race and it could set up for a closer like #8 More Than Looks (20-1) or #10 Win for the Money (30-1) to fill out the trifecta (or maybe even the exacta) at a monster price.

$1 million Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, 8:25 p.m. ET

While the Breeders’ Cup Mile is my favorite from among the Breeders’ Cup races, the Dirt Mile holds the spot at the other end of the spectrum. In terms of value, #12 Mufasa (12-1) sure fits the bill coming off a terrific 4 ¼-length in the Vosburgh Stakes. The post position with a short run into the first turn did not help his cause … or #14 Skippylongstocking’s (4-1) for that matter. If you are looking for a true bomb in here to spice things up, try #7 Tumbarumba (30-1). He’s finished in the top three in his last eight races against quality competition and no worse than second in five races in 2024. He’s also versatile enough to set the pace, press, or stalk and should work out a decent trip under Luis Saez.