2024 Mountain West Conference Football Preview, Picks, and Best Bets

College football season is only five Saturdays away from kick-off, and it’s time to start to start research for 2024 season long plays. The Mountain West Conference will add Oregon State and Washington State as satellite members. They’ll play a Mountain West Conference schedule, but the games won’t count in the conference standings.

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2024 Mountain West Conference Football Preview, Picks, and Best Bets

2024 Mountain West Conference Favorite: Boise State +100

It seems like Boise State is always one of the top contenders in the Mountain West. However, this year, the Broncos are the favorite for 2024.

Boise State returns six starters on offense. That list includes star running back Ashton Jeanty and three of five offensive linemen.

The Broncos also added former five-star recruit Malachi Nelson at quarterback through the transfer portal. Nelson enters Boise as a redshirt freshman with three total pass attempts with USC. He’s penciled in as a day one starter and has a chance to rank among the best quarterbacks the Broncos have ever had if he stays for a few years.

On defense, the Broncos return 11 starters on a defense that was fourth in the Mountain West in scoring last year. They also added depth to their defensive line and secondary through the transfer portal.

Boise only has seven conference games this year. However, they get Utah State, San Diego State, and Nevada at home. They have two back-to-back road spots, but the first one has a bye week between the games. The other back-to-back road spot includes trips to San Jose State and Wyoming.

The Broncos went 6-2 in-conference last year, and they feature a better offense and what should be one of the top defenses in the conference. 6-1 isn’t out of the question, and that should be good enough to get Boise State into the conference championship.

Boise State is one of the safest bets on the board, and, at even money, it’s playable.

2024 Mountain West Conference Contender: Fresno State +400

Sadly, the Fresno State Bulldogs are in an odd place. Head coach Jeff Tedford just stepped down due to medical concerns, and Tim Skipper is taking the reigns for the 2024 season.

Skipper was the assistant head coach/linebackers coach. He was acting head coach for last season’s New Mexico Bowl, and he’s been elevated to interim head coach for this season.

It’s awful that Tedford had to step down before the start of the season, but the Bulldogs made the right call. They need a defensive guy who can tap into emotion and get his guys motivated. Skipper is that kind of guy, and he should be able to keep Fresno State on the right track even with Tedford stepping down.

Fresno State returns starting quarterback Mikey Keene, four offensive linemen, and a couple of skill position guys on offense. They also added depth to their receiver corps through the transfer portal.

On defense, the Bulldogs return five starters, including top tacklers linebacker Malachi Langley and safety Dean Clark. They also added a few nice pieces through the portal. The biggest get was defensive end Korey Foreman from USC.

When it comes to the schedule, Fresno State has a really nice conference slate. The Bulldogs only have one back-to-back road spot, and it comes in September against New Mexico and UNLV. Fresno State has to go to Colorado Springs to play against Air Force.

They should end the year with only one or two losses and in conference, and should end up facing Boise State in the 2024 Mountain West Conference championship game.

2024 Mountain West Conference Dark Horse: Air Force +1200

If you’re looking for a team with long odds to sprinkle a few bucks on, Air Force is the team to target. This is more of a system play than a ‘they-added-a-ton’ play, but it makes sense as a long shot.

Air Force doesn’t really lose guys to the portal, but they don’t use their portal to improve, either. The Falcons build from within, run the same systems, and maintain continuity. They only return a few starters on offense and defense, but that’s not unusual. Every starter is a junior or senior that has been in the system for multiple years.

The schedule for the Falcons is incredibly favorable. Air Force avoids Boise State and UNLV. They get home spots against San Jose State, Colorado State, and Fresno State. All three are winnable.

The Falcons get road spots against Wyoming, New Mexico, Nevada, and San Diego State. Wyoming and San Diego State are tough spots, but they’re not unwinnable. Even if they lose both of those games, they can still hit 5-2 by winning out in Colorado Springs and picking up wins against New Mexico and Nevada.

At 12-1 odds, Air Force is a long shot play that is always in play simply because of the quality of the coach and the system the Falcons run.

Must-bet wins total: Hawaii over 4.5 Wins

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are coming off a 5-8 season, and their win total is only 4.5. What? The bookmakers are asleep on this one.

Hawaii has two FCS schools on their schedule and home matchups against New Mexico and Nevada. That’s four wins right there. All the Warriors have to do is pick up another win one of their other seven games and they cash.

Hawaii returns their starting quarterback, several capable receivers, and most of their offensive line from last year. They also return seven starters on defense. All seven are linebackers or defensive backs, but they picked up a few key pieces for the defensive line through the portal.

There’s a bit of juice on the over, so don’t be surprised if the books move this total to five wins by the start of the season. Jump on it now, take the over on 4.5 wins, and set yourself up for a cash.

Discover more college football content

The College Football Experience podcast is working their way through team previews. Check out the latest episodes as Colby, NC Nick, Patty C, and a host of others run through the roster changes, the schedule, and betting odds for each team. Listen to TCE, take our expert college football gambling picks, and let it ride!