2024 Shriners Children’s Open Preview

The PGA Tour FedEx Cup Fall swing heads to Sin City! It’s the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, NV. As always, here is your early deep dive on the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open and a preview of how to bet.

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The Golf Course

TPC Summerlin first opened in 1991 on the outskirts of Las Vegas. It was designed by Bobby Weed. Bobby Weed is a Pete Dye protégé. Bobby Weed is a very respected golf course architect and is noted for several high-profile golf courses. Some of his work includes TPC River Highlands, the Dye Valley Course at TPC Sawgrass, Grove XXIII (Michael Jordan’s golf course in Jupiter, FL), and renovations to Medalist Golf Club and Timuquana Country Club.

While Bobby Weed did a nice job blending the golf course with the surrounding desert landscape, it’s about your standard run-of-the-mill PGA Tour venue.

Rocky waste areas are utilized as either forced carriers or as natural hazards around greens. There is also a good use of elevation changes around the golf course. TPC Summerlin has a variety of uphill and downhill holes, along with some elevated green complexes. This can be challenging for the mere mortals who play it every day.

But not for those on the PGA Tour. At altitude and a short cut of the rough, players can take pretty much all the trouble off the tee out of play. That shortens the golf course significantly and yields a ton of short approach shots. Players then fire into huge, relatively flat greens for great looks at birdie.

And birdies are plentiful in this tournament. Tom Kim won this tournament last year at -20. The year before that he won it at -24. Sungjae Im also won the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open at -24. And the two tournaments before that resulted in a playoff where everyone sat at -23 after 72 holes.

The only time the tournament showed teeth was in 2017 when Patrick Cantlay won the event at -9. That year, the golf course was unseasonably cold and windy, which was the only defense it had against the players. However, the forecast once again calls for dome-like conditions. Temperatures will hover in the mid 70’s and low 80’s all week. The only chance of significant wind will come on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, conditions should be ripe once again for another birdie fest.

Betting Strategies

Here is some general information about TPC Summerlin. This will assist in optimizing betting strategies for the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open.

Par: 71

Length: 7,255 Yards

Architect: Bobby Weed (Fuzzy Zoeller Consultation) – 1991

Average Green Size: ~7,400 sq. feet

• TPC Summerlin features some of the largest greens on the PGA Tour. As expected, the green in regulation rate is comically high every single year at this tournament.

Agronomy: 

• Fairways: Bermuda
• Rough: Bermuda – 2.25″
• Greens: Dominator Bentgrass
  • This particular strain of bentgrass was featured last week at the Black Desert Championship.

Scoring at TPC Summerlin

• Average Scoring
  • 2023: -1.94
  • 2022: -2.25
  • 2021: -2.00
  • 2020: -2.51
• Cut Line
  • 2023: -3
  • 2022: -4
  • 2021: -5
  • 2020: -7

TPC Summerlin yields some of the easiest scoring conditions of any PGA Tour golf course. The altitude of Las Vegas significantly shortens the golf course. The greens are massive and typically have very high green in regulation rate. And the greens themselves are relatively flat. Players will have tons of birdie opportunities all week.

Recent Champions (W/ Closing Odds)

• 2023: Tom Kim (-20) – 11/1
• 2022: Tom Kim (-24) – 22/1
• 2021: Sungjae Im (-24) – 32/1
• 2020: Martin Laird (-23) – 250/1
• 2019: Kevin Na (-23) – 70/1

The last three winners of the Shriners have been some of the tournament favorites. Recent years have seen a significant decline in field quality. And the cream has risen to the top. However, Martin Laird came out of nowhere in 2020 to win in a playoff over Austin Cook and Matthew Wolff. And while Kevin Na is a highly accomplished PGA Tour pro, his odds had slipped to 70/1 in the year he won.

Other notable great finishes from top favorites include Patrick Cantlay (former winner and multiple time runner up), Bryson DeChambeau (2018 champion) and Matthew Wolff (two-time runner up).

Off-The-Tee

Since 2015, TPC Summerlin ranks 88th out of 96 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty off-the-tee. In 2023, the tee shots ranked 43rd out of 45 golf courses in terms of difficulty. With firm fairways, altitude that boost driving distances, the lack of hazards off the tee, and non-penal rough, there is very little adversity at TPC Summerlin off the tee.

Since 2015, all measured drives at TPC Summerlin average 299.2 yards in length. That ranks 13th out of 96 golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015 in terms of length. In 2023, the average measured drive at TPC Summerlin was 303.3 yards, good for 5th longest out of 45 golf courses on the PGA Tour. As mentioned earlier, the altitude, firm conditions, and the inability to take drivers out of players’ hands are why the driving distances are so long at TPC Summerlin.

Since 2015, the average driving accuracy at TPC Summerlin is 61.0%. That ranks 49th out of 96 golf courses in terms of driving accuracy of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015. However, there has been a significant jump in driving accuracy rates since 2018. The field average has been at least 64% in five of the last six Shriners Children’s Open.

Overall, it’s not all that penal to miss a fairway at TPC Summerlin. It ranks slightly above average in terms of the difference in score between tee shots that find the fairway and those that find the rough. While the 2.25″ bermuda rough isn’t that thick, it can promote some flyer lies. And because birdies are plentiful, the ability to control spin with wedges to stick short approach shots from the fairway is key.

It should be noted, however, that the miss fairway penalty was much higher in 2023 and 2024 than in prior years. It seems as though the rough was either grown out a little more, or it didn’t go dormant like it typically does in the fall. As such, the 2.25″ bermuda was trickier to hit out of than other years. It’ll be interesting to see if that’s a continuing trend in 2024, or if those two years were primarily attributed to the newly surfaced greens that firmed them up.

Approach

Since 2015, TPC Summerlin ranks 62nd out of 96 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty with the approach shots. In 2023, the approach shots ranked 31st out of 45 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in the 2023 season in terms of difficulty.

Players absolutely pepper the greens at TPC Summerlin at high rates. That’s what happens when the average green size is almost 7,400 square feet in area. Even though they’re on the firm side (particularly after being resurfaced prior to the 2022 tournament), players have very little trouble finding the putting surface in regulation.

Since 2015, the average green in regulation rate at TPC Summerlin is 72.4%. That’s the 11th highest green in regulation rate of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015. In 2023, the green in regulation rate was 73.3%, which ranked 6th out of 45 golf courses in terms of GIR % during the 2023 season.

Finally, here is the approach shot distribution chart from the 2023 Shriners Children’s Open (per DataGolf):

Per a review of prior years of distribution charts, this allocation is very representative of the historical percentages at TPC Summerlin. This is a test of the short irons this week, specifically from between 100-150 yards.

Around The Green

If there’s anything that’s tough about TPC Summerlin, it’s around the green. Since 2015, TPC Summerlin ranks as the 12th most difficult out of 96 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty around the green. It is annually one of the tougher golf courses around the green on the PGA Tour.

It’s particularly tough scrambling from the short grass. TPC Summerlin ranks as the 7th toughest conditions from short grass around the green. PGA Tour Live discussed this topic before the 2023 tournament. Per the crew, the bermuda around the green is really, really grainy. It’s not easy to chip off of grainy bermuda. Experience chipping off of bermuda could be a big plus this week.

The bunkers are also difficult to try and get up and down from out of them. Since 2015, TPC Summerlin has featured the 24th most difficult greenside bunkers of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour. This isn’t too dissimilar from other Bobby Weed and Pete Dye golf courses, as golf courses like TPC River Highlands and TPC Sawgrass feature similarly difficult bunkers.

However, the bunkers were renovated in 2018. Since then, they haven’t played nearly as tough. In both Shriners Opens in the 2023 season, the bunkers played 22nd and 20th toughest, respectively. While still more difficult than average, they don’t have as many teeth as they once had.

However, with such high green in regulation rates, players don’t have to get up and down often at TPC Summerlin. If anything, the ability to navigate the conditions around the green could mean the difference between a win or a runner up finish, or an appearance on the weekend or a trunk slam on Friday. Don’t weight this too heavily in models this week.

Putting

Since 2015, TPC Summerlin ranks as the 68th out of 96 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty. It’s annually one of the easiest putting venues on the PGA Tour.

While the greens are huge, they don’t have a ton of undulation to them. That’s why it doesn’t feature any particular range of putts that are overly difficult. As long as players find their line and hit it solid, putting is a fairly easy chore at TPC Summerlin.

Typically, the greens run around 11.5 on the stimpmeter. That’s a little slower than the PGA Tour average.

Predictive Skillsets

Here’s the predictive skillset chart of what types of players are expected to do well at TPC Summerlin (per DataGolf). This will preview what types of players are expected to do well at the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open:

There’s almost no correlation between success at TPC Summerlin and what one does best off the tee. Because the golf course is so forgiving off the tee, and because even long hitters can bomb it pretty far, there’s no heavy concentration of predominantly long hitters or accurate hitters at the tops of leaderboards at this event. It’s typically a mixed bag.

Case in point – consider the 2020 Shriners Children’s Open. That was a three-way playoff featuring Matthew Wolff (one of the longest and most inaccurate drivers in the world), Austin Cook (one of the shortest but more accurate drivers on the PGA Tour), and Martin Laird (who possessed above-average length off the tee and elite accuracy). All of them are vastly different drivers off the tee. And all of them had an equal shot to win the Shriners Children’s Open in the playoff.

However, there is a slightly positive correlation between those who are good iron players (particularly from under 150 yards), good scramblers, and good putters. While anyone from all walks of life off the tee can show up to TPC Summerlin and do well, it does seem like you have to be pretty good in at least two of the three other areas of the game to succeed in this tournament.

In Tournament Strokes Gained

Here is a distribution chart of the variance in total strokes gained based on tournament performance. This chart demonstrates what forces have an influence on how a player separates themselves from the field (per DataGolf):

Similar to the non-predictive nature of off-the-tee performance, one’s performance in a tournament off the tee doesn’t matter as much as other golf courses on the PGA Tour. Drilling down further, the last two Shriners Children’s Opens has seen a much stronger than average correlation of driving accuracy influencing ones total Strokes Gained – Off-the-Tee on the week. Given the last two Shriners have featured a much higher penalty for missed fairways than other editions, this isn’t a surprising revelation.

However, it’s slightly more important with the approach shots around the green and on the greens than the average PGA Tour venue to separate oneself on the leaderboard. These types of tournaments are ideal for gamblers who can properly match a player’s strengths to the golf course, as the more predictive attributes of a player are able to translate into separating oneself on the leaderboard. As such, it’s vital to properly assess golfers’ strengths and weaknesses in this field, as that will preview what to expect at the 2023 Shriners Children’s Open more than it would at other golf courses.

Lastly, here are other golf courses with a similar course fit model (per DataGolf):

• La Quinta Country Club (the AmEx)
• TPC Craig Ranch (CJ Cup Byron Nelson)
• Pebble Beach Golf Links (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
• Hamilton Golf & Country Club (2019 & 2023 RBC Canadian Opens)
• Silverado Resort (Procore Championship)
• Monterey Peninsula CC (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
• The Renaissance Club (Genesis Scottish Open)
• August National Golf Club (The Masters)
• Memorial Park Golf Course (Texas Children’s Houston Open)
• Port Royal Golf Course (Butterfield Bermuda Championship)
• PGA National (Cognizant Classic)
• Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
• St. George’s G&CC (2022 RBC Canadian Open)

With a few exceptions, most of these golf courses are on the shorter side, feature lots of short approach shots into greens, and have some of the easiest scoring conditions on the PGA Tour. That pretty much sums up TPC Summerlin in a nutshell.

Follow the tips in this preview, and one should put together a solid betting card or DFS lineup for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship