2024 Week 5 NFL point totals, over-under picks, Vegas betting lines, odds: Model unveils 25-1 parlay

There’s just one Monday Night Football game in the Week 5 NFL schedule. The Saints will visit the Chiefs, and there’s a discernible trend with the six MNF games so far. The Over is 5-1 in these games, as teams have been lighting up the scoreboard with the entire sports world watching. The latest Week 5 NFL betting lines have this game’s total at 43 after opening at 45. New Orleans boasts the No. 1 scoring offense, while any team with Patrick Mahomes under center can score quickly. However, the Saints’ scoring has dropped considerably over the last two weeks, while Kansas City’s point total has decreased every game this season.

Perhaps that’s why this Week 5 NFL over/under has dropped, and you may want to cast NFL best bets on it before it falls even further. Before you make any Week 5 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. It’s also 8-5 on top-rated over/under picks since the start of that season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it for NFL betting is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 5 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL over/under best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 5 NFL total picks at SportsLine.

Top Week 5 NFL total picks

One part of the five-line NFL totals parlay we can reveal: The model says the Over (48.5) hits in Ravens vs. Bengals. These AFC North rivals played each other four times during the 2023 calendar year. All four matchups went over, notably the two divisional contests from last season. The one in Cincinnati saw 51 points scored, eclipsing the over-under of 45.5, and the matchup in Baltimore saw 54 combined points, going over 46.5.

The success of the Over stretches beyond 2023 for these fierce rivals, as seven of the last 10 meetings, both regular and postseason, have gone over. In 2024, Cincinnati has seen its last three games go over the point total, while Baltimore saw its first three go over. Its most recent matchup with Buffalo would have likely as well had the Ravens not pulled their starters with a big lead. The model recognizes the overwhelming trends in this matchup and has the Over hitting well over 60% of the time, projecting 57 combined points. See which other NFL over/under parlay picks to make here.  

How to parlay Week 5 NFL over/unders

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the over-under is way off, including an A-rated pick that hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s Week 5 NFL best bets and over/under parlay picks at SportsLine.  

So how many points are scored in each game, and which over-unders should you include for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 5 NFL total picks from a model on an 188-131 run on top-rated picks, and find out.