2025 World Junior Hockey Championship predictions: A new gold medal favorite emerges

By Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, Max Bultman and The Athletic NHL Staff 

How much could have changed in just over a week?

Well, at the 2025 IIHF World Junior Championship, the answer is a lot.

Our pre-tournament pick for gold in our World Juniors predictions, Canada, was upset by Latvia and lost an important matchup with rival USA in the preliminary round. One of our picks for the top 2025 NHL Draft-eligible player, Matthew Schaefer, suffered a tournament-ending injury.

What else changed? Before the tournament’s quarterfinals, The Athletic polled 19 NHL staffers between Dec. 31 and Jan. 1 on the same set of questions we asked pre-tournament, plus their picks for the quarterfinal matchups. All those polled answered each question in the staff team picks portion of the survey.

Here’s how our staff’s expectations for the tournament have already evolved, with expert analysis, critique and player picks from prospect experts Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman.

Note: Voting result percentages in tables are rounded.

Preliminary round standings

Staff team picks

Which team will win the quarterfinal matchup of Sweden vs. Latvia?

Wheeler: The results here aren’t a surprise. Sweden is the only team that went 4-0 in group play, and Latvia has never made the semifinals at the tournament.

This is Latvia’s second quarterfinal in the past three years, though, and this team has exceeded expectations every step of the way. It beat Canada and Germany and played tight, responsible hockey in losses to the U.S. and Finland (midway through the USA game, Latvia was leading in shots on goal). Eriks Mateiko (WSH) has been one of the top players in the tournament, and goaltender Linards Feldbergs has been excellent. The Swedes are the heavy, heavy favorites, though.

Bultman: Latvia has been impressive. Even in its 5-1 loss to the U.S., it was right in the game and had some chances to put a scare into the Americans. I picked Sweden like everyone else, but the Latvian team isn’t going to come into this game just happy to be there. It’ll put up a fight.

Which team will win the quarterfinal matchup of Finland vs. Slovakia?

Wheeler: This matchup is probably a little closer than the splits here, but the Finns are the favorites, especially with how well goaltender Petteri Rimpinen has played. Sometimes all you need in this tournament is a few core guys you can play the hell out of when it matters most, though, and nobody has leaned on their guys more than Slovakia has with Dalibor Dvorsky (STL), Juraj Pekarcik (STL) and Maxim Strbak (BUF). I’d expect them all to play 25-30 minutes, and if they rise to the challenge, the Slovaks could win.

Pronman: This is closer to 50/50 for me as well, even if I would lean toward Finland, which has a deeper lineup and a better goalie. Its best player, in theory, Konsta Helenius, has had a disappointing tournament, though, compared to Dvorsky.

Bultman: It scares me a bit that Finland managed only 10 goals through four games of pool play, but Slovakia wasn’t much different, and the Finns are a notoriously tough out.

Which team will win the quarterfinal matchup of the United States vs. Switzerland?

Wheeler: I might pick any of the seven other teams in the quarters against the Swiss. They have a couple of interesting young players, but their top guys have been a mixed bag and they weren’t convincing in any of their games (even their 7-5 loss to Sweden doesn’t tell the full story, as that game was played on the power play). The only thing that could undo the U.S. in this matchup would be discipline or getting “goalied” by Christian Kirsch (SJS). It’s more likely to be a blowout.

Which team will win the quarterfinal matchup of Canada vs. Czechia?

Wheeler: These odds are pretty close. I get a slight lean toward Canada because it might be the favorite on paper. It’s been less of one on the ice. This Czech team has a goalie who can steal a game, Michael Hrabal; four forward lines; and a strong blue line. If Canada doesn’t stay disciplined and continues to struggle to score, the Czechs could win a close game.

Pronman: I would argue Czechia is the mild favorite based on how the tournament has gone. It has scored more goals than Canada, and its older players have been more impactful in general, showing a lineup that has quality depth even if it lacks star power.

Bultman: The deciding issue will be whether Canada — which has struggled mightily to score — can solve Hrabal, who at this stage might be the favorite for the tournament’s top goalie. I picked Canada on the belief it will eventually figure it out, but I don’t feel good about it after how pool play went.

Which country will be relegated?

The two last-placed teams play a Relegation Round game. The winner plays again at the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship, and the loser is relegated to the 2026 IIHF Ice Hockey U20 World Championship Division I Group A. 

Wheeler: This is a weak German team that is susceptible to losing this game, but it’s hard to pick Kazakhstan to win at this level.

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Which team will win gold?

Wheeler: You should be taking Canada if these were Vegas odds, but it has wholly earned our voters’ hesitation.

Bultman: Sweden has been the most impressive team, so its jump here is well earned. I changed my pick to Sweden, too. But we haven’t seen it against the U.S. or Canada, and if Trey Augustine can keep up the form he showed against Canada (but notably didn’t have early in the tournament), the U.S. will be a tough out.

Unlike the U.S., Canada has struggled to break through offensively in the tournament. (Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)

Which team will win silver?

Wheeler: Wow. Between the 5.3 percent for gold and the 5.3 percent for silver, few people are picking Canada to make the final after nearly 87 percent of voters picked it to be there pre-tournament.

Bultman: It’s going to take more than a couple of goals to beat Sweden, and we just haven’t seen Canada break through offensively in this tournament.

Which team will win bronze?

Wheeler: I’d love to see the Czechs medal for a fourth straight year!

Panel player picks

Who will be the leading scorer?

Wheeler: I almost went with a defenseman. Cole Hutson and Axel Sandin Pellikka have a 2-point lead over our pick of James Hagens, with 8 points to his 6, and if they each get 1 point in the next three games, which seems realistic, I wonder if 11 is enough in the end. It’ll be an American or a Swede, though. They have the softest quarterfinal matchups and the greatest opportunity to add to their tallies.

Bultman: The Hagens line will break through in the knockout round, and if it does, Hagens is well positioned to grab the scoring crown.

“I saw my chance and I took it.”
– James Hagens (probably) #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/3qoviz6Obd

— USA Hockey (@usahockey) December 26, 2024

Who will be the MVP?

Awarded to the most valuable player at any position, as selected by media representatives at the end of the tournament.

Pronman: It’s anyone’s guess who will emerge as the best player. There isn’t a clear candidate right now (hence, us all picking someone different). Through the round-robin, this has been a World Juniors without a standout performer, even if several players have played well.

Wheeler: If Hutson lights it up against the Swiss and makes another big play or two in the semifinal and the final, it’ll be his to lose.

Bultman: I changed my gold medal pick to Sweden, so going with its leading scorer felt like a natural switch as well.

1, 2, 3 for ASP! 🎩

Axel Sandin-Pellikka nets a hat trick in his first game of the 2025 #WorldJuniors! pic.twitter.com/vGoETMFJeT

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) December 26, 2024

Who will be the best goalie?

Awarded to the best goalie, as selected by the Directorate of the IIHF at the end of the tournament.

Wheeler: Carter George, Hrabal, Rimpinen and Feldbergs have been among the standouts, but George has been beaten only three times in three starts, and they were all on the power play. He’s locked in right now; I picked Canada to beat Czechia against my best judgment, and if it does, he’ll win this award handily.

I take it you two picked Czechia to beat Canada?

Bultman: It is tough to win one of these without making the final four, but Hrabal’s been good enough that he can contend for this award with a strong performance in a low-scoring loss, too. But George is a contender, and if Augustine rallies and leads the U.S. to gold, I wouldn’t count him out, either.

Who will be the best defender?

Awarded to the best defender, as selected by the Directorate of the IIHF at the end of the tournament.

Wheeler: It’s funny that I picked Sandin Pellikka before the tournament and am now the one who has switched, but Hutson has been lights out and USA had the tougher group.

Cole Hutson with a beautiful setup to Nelson for the 🚨 #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/YzGzU7EC6M

— USA Hockey (@usahockey) January 1, 2025

Who will be the best forward?

Awarded to the best forward, as selected by the Directorate of the IIHF at the end of the tournament.

Wheeler: It’s not going to be any of the Canadians! I thought about USA’s Danny Nelson here.

Who will be the top 2025 NHL Draft-eligible player?

Pronman: Hagens has been excellent, but Schaefer was playing at such a high level. Had he not gotten injured, he probably would have been my vote.

Wheeler: Yeah, this could have been a great story in the tournament but has become Hagens’ by default due to Schaefer’s injury and Porter Martone’s scratches. Rimpinen has had an excellent tournament as well.

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(Top photo of Canada’s Caden Price and USA’s James Hagens: Sean Kilpatrick / The Canadian Press via Associated Press)