2026 World Cup futures odds: Brazil, France favored to win expanded tournament

Now that Euro 2024 and the 2024 Copa América have completed, the 2026 World Cup is on the clock. Argentina and Spain are fresh off triumphs this summer, but Brazil and France are the co-favorites for the greatest prize in the international game.

World Cup qualifying hasn’t even started for many countries (and won’t start until March in Europe), but all the major favorites, and the three host countries for 2026, competed this summer in continental play. Brazil and France were not particularly impressive this summer, but both lead the way with +600 odds on BetMGM to win the 2026 World Cup.

Even after scoring just one goal in open play across six matches at Euro 2024, France still probably has the most talented squad on paper. France also has Kylian Mbappé, arguably the best player in the world right now. The French played defensively and didn’t have Mbappé at full strength, but did still make a semifinal. Recency bias aside, France is a logical co-favorite.

Brazil is more of an enigma as a co-favorite. The Brazilians are enduring one of their worst runs in recent memory. Brazil has failed to finish in the top three at the last five World Cups, which is an insane standard but also has never happened before. Brazil has gone out in the quarterfinals in four of the last five World Cups. The lone semifinal appearance was the embarrassing 7-1 defeat to Germany at home in 2014. More recently, Brazil went out in the quarterfinals of the Copa América and is only sixth out of 10 teams through six matches in Conmebol World Cup qualifying. That said, it’s still Brazil, and no one would be surprised to see this group improve in two years. Plus, 17-year-old Endrick is viewed as one of the top prospects in the sport.

Euro 2024 champion Spain comes in next in the odds at +650, which includes a minor move after La Roja’s summer success. Spain brought a mostly young team to the Euros. Pedri, Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal could star for Spain for the next decade (maybe even two decades for the newly-turned 17-year-old Yamal). Dani Olmo and Rodri both had standout Euros and are in their 20s. This team could be even better in two years.

Euro 2024 runner-up England is +700. England made it to a second straight Euros final, but were defeated again and trying to evaluate this team is a difficult task. England was a tough watch most of the tournament and squeaked by in a lot of close matches only to get outplayed in the final by Spain. Is England a genuine contender to win after making the semifinals in three of the past four major tournaments, or just a talented team that doesn’t quite have enough to lift a trophy? Like Spain, England brought a mostly young team to the Euros so they won’t get overlooked in the odds.

Argentina won the Copa América and has +800 odds to win the 2026 World Cup. This group has been on an unbelievable run, but how different will La Albiceleste look in two years? Ángel Di María is retiring from international play. Defender Nicolás Otamendi will be 38 in two years. Then, of course, Lionel Messi will turn 39 during the 2026 World Cup. Will he still be able to star for Argentina? Argentina always has more talented players to call upon, but there won’t be anyone replacing Messi any time soon.

The last back-to-back World Cup winner was Brazil in 1958 and 1962.

2026 World Cup odds

Odds as of July 15. Go to BetMGM for live odds.

The rest of the top contenders are more or less the same as they are for every World Cup. After all, only eight countries have ever won the World Cup and only six have won since 1970. Interestingly, those six countries (Brazil, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Argentina) have each won one World Cup in the 21st Century. Will we get a seventh different winner or will we see one team from this group win again?

As for the three hosts, all are viewed as long-shot winners. The U.S. (+4000) and Mexico (+5000) both went out in the group stage of Copa América, which cost U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter his job. Canada (+10000) made the semifinals with American manager Jesse Marsch leading the way for the first time. All three made the 2022 World Cup, but only the Americans made it out of group play and the U.S. went out immediately in the knockout stage.

The 2026 World Cup will be the first to feature 48 teams. There will be 12 groups of four teams each and the knockout stage will feature 32 teams. All three hosts will play group matches at home, but the knockout stage will be played mostly in the U.S. with Canada and Mexico hosting three knockout matches each. From the quarterfinals on, every match will be in the U.S.

(Photo of Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal: Javier Soriano / AFP via Getty Images)