3 things to know about the Big Ten: Is this the year Ohio State finally breaks through?

Winning your conference is very important in the era of the expanded College Football Playoff.

The top four conference champions will receive byes to the second round of the 12-team postseason. With just four power conferences remaining following the demise of the Pac-12, a conference title is essentially a guaranteed off week.

With the 2024 season quickly approaching, here’s a look at the Big Ten. Ohio State has a lot of pressure entering the season and a few teams that could be right on its heels.

• Ohio State (+150)

• Oregon (+200)

• Penn State (+500)

• Michigan (+600)

• USC (+2200)

• Iowa (+4000)

• Washington (+5000)

• Nebraska (+5000)

• Wisconsin (+8000)

• Rutgers (+10000)

• Maryland (+12500)

• Michigan State (+12500)

• Northwestern (+15000)

• Illinois (+15000)

• UCLA (+20000)

• Minnesota (+20000)

• Purdue (+20000)

• Indiana (+20000)

A make-or-break season for Ohio State

The last three years have built toward the 2024 season for the preseason favorites. A third consecutive loss to Michigan led to Ohio State missing the College Football Playoff a year ago. QB Kyle McCord transferred in December, and Devin Brown got injured in the Cotton Bowl loss to Missouri.

Ex-Kansas State quarterback Will Howard arrives to upgrade the quarterback room for his final season. He should also add a rushing threat Ohio State didn’t have with McCord starting. The running back room could have the best 1-2 punch in college football with the arrival of former Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins. He rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his two seasons at Ole Miss and will team with TreVeyon Henderson. Emeka Egbuka is back to lead the receiving corps, and watch out for five-star freshman Jeremiah Smith.

The defense is loaded too. Edge rushers Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau return up front and the secondary brings back defensive back Denzel Burke. Star safety Caleb Downs arrives from Alabama and should step into the starting lineup right away.

Simply put, the ingredients and expectations are there for a national title season. If Ohio State doesn’t earn a top-six seed in the playoff and at least advance to the semifinals, it’s reasonable to consider 2024 a disappointment.

The Buckeyes have some serious challengers in the Big Ten, however. Oregon could be just as good as it was a season ago with Dillon Gabriel arriving from Oklahoma to succeed Bo Nix. The offense also added former Texas A&M wide receiver Evan Stewart and the secondary has been bolstered by a host of transfers. How quickly they gel together may be the key to Oregon’s Big Ten title chances. The game of the year in the conference (outside of Michigan vs. Ohio State) could be when the Buckeyes visit the Ducks on Oct. 12.

Penn State has serious playoff hopes after back-to-back 10-win seasons. Drew Allar returns for his third season at quarterback, and the duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen isn’t far behind Ohio State’s running backs. The defense brings back four of its top five tacklers, and the secondary added a pair of SEC transfers in AJ Harris (Georgia) and Jalen Kimber (Florida).

It may be overly simple, but Allar’s performance against top teams in 2024 is what will put Penn State over the top. He failed to complete 50% of his passes in each of the Nittany Lions’ three losses last season.

Michigan, the defending national champions, are looking to rebuild and reload for another title run following a 15-0 season in 2023. Offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore takes over at head coach from Jim Harbaugh, and Michigan had the most players drafted from any school in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The defense still has plenty of talent along the line and in the secondary. Getting S Rod Moore back after he missed all of 2023 will be vital.

The biggest questions are on offense, where nearly every key contributor is gone. Donovan Edwards takes over as the lead back after a 2023 that wasn’t very good until the end of the season. Alex Orji is in line to start at QB after seeing limited playing time in special packages in 2023.

The offensive line also needs to replace four starters, but the unit’s identity should be a lot like it was a season ago. Expect a lot of power running with a passing game to complement it. We’ll have an idea of how good Michigan is in Week 2 when Texas visits.

Who emerges from the middle tier?

There seems to be a clear top four in the conference. Who will be the best of the rest?

Iowa is a serious sleeper candidate to get to the Big Ten title game. The Hawkeyes defense should be stellar again — it’s an annual tradition at this point for Iowa to give up fewer than 20 points per game. The biggest question is on offense, but there’s reason to believe Iowa will be better with a coordinator change and injury luck.

Former Western Michigan coach Tim Lester takes over as offensive coordinator for Brian Ferentz and ex-Michigan QB Cade McNamara should be fully healthy. McNamara suffered a season-ending knee injury in his first season as the Hawkeyes’ starter. TE Luke Lachey should also return from a knee injury he suffered early in 2023 and running backs Leshon Williams and Kaleb Williams are both back. Simply an average passing game will open up the offense for the run game.

USC has a new defensive coordinator in D’Anton Lynn as it looks to field a solid defense that isn’t entirely reliant on turnovers for the first time in Lincoln Riley’s tenure. The Trojans were ripped apart in 2023 and the offensive line also struggled. That’s not a recipe for excellence, even with Caleb Williams at quarterback. Miller Moss is the favorite to start as Williams’ replacement over former UNLV QB Jayden Maiava.

The Trojans’ schedule does them no favors this season, however. USC opens with LSU and then visits Michigan in Week 4. Penn State, Washington and Notre Dame are also on it.

Teams with better chances than their odds indicate

You can do far worse than Rutgers as a long-shot futures bet this season. Seriously. The Scarlet Knights return a lot of talent from a team that went 7-6 a season ago. RB Kyle Monangai rushed for 1,262 yards last season and linebacker Mohamed Toure is one of the best in the conference.

After spending years in a Big Ten East with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, Rutgers doesn’t have any of those teams on the schedule this season. And Iowa isn’t on it either. The Scarlet Knights’ toughest game could be a trip to USC in October. Rutgers may not play the most exciting football to watch, but it could better its win total from a season ago.

Indiana is also an intriguing team despite its bottom-of-the-conference odds. After parting ways with Tom Allen — now Penn State’s defensive coordinator — the Hoosiers hired James Madison coach Curt Cignetti. He’s never had a losing season as a head coach.

Indiana also added former Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke via the transfer portal. He didn’t have a great year in 2023 after his late-season knee injury in 2022. But he was stellar before the injury. If Rourke is fully healthy, he’ll be one of the better QBs in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers do have both Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule, but not until November. Indiana could be bowl-eligible in October given its early schedule.