Forever Entertainment S.A.’s (WSE:FOR) Stock Has Seen Strong Momentum: Does That Call For Deeper Study Of Its Financial Prospects?

Forever Entertainment’s (WSE:FOR) stock is up by a considerable 16% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company’s financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. In this article, we decided to focus on Forever Entertainment’s ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder’s equity.

View our latest analysis for Forever Entertainment

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Forever Entertainment is:

13% = zł5.7m ÷ zł44m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The ‘return’ is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every PLN1 of its shareholder’s investments, the company generates a profit of PLN0.13.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company’s future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or “retains” for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don’t necessarily bear these characteristics.

Forever Entertainment’s Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

To start with, Forever Entertainment’s ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company’s ROE is similar to the industry average of 14%. As you might expect, the 7.4% net income decline reported by Forever Entertainment is a bit of a surprise. Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven’t been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company’s growth. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

So, as a next step, we compared Forever Entertainment’s performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 7.9% over the last few years.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you’re wondering about Forever Entertainment’s’s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Forever Entertainment Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Looking at its three-year median payout ratio of 27% (or a retention ratio of 73%) which is pretty normal, Forever Entertainment’s declining earnings is rather baffling as one would expect to see a fair bit of growth when a company is retaining a good portion of its profits. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

In addition, Forever Entertainment only recently started paying a dividend so the management probably decided the shareholders prefer dividends even though earnings have been shrinking.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like Forever Entertainment has some positive aspects to its business. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn’t the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that’s hampering its growth. While we won’t completely dismiss the company, what we would do, is try to ascertain how risky the business is to make a more informed decision around the company. You can see the 3 risks we have identified for Forever Entertainment by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com