T20 World Cup 2024 scenarios: What do South Africa, England and West Indies need to make the semis?

If England and West Indies win

For England to go past South Africa’s NRR, the sum of margins of the two results will have to be 10 runs (assuming first-innings totals of 160). That means, if England win by 10 runs, they will go ahead on run rate even if South Africa lose in the Super Over. If the margin of result is under 10, South Africa will stay ahead and qualify with four points.

If USA and South Africa win

South Africa will top the table with six points, while the other three teams will finish on two points each. If England lose in the Super Over chasing 160, West Indies will have to lose by 43 or more runs for their NRR to drop below that of England. If England lose by a bigger margin, West Indies will have more leeway, which means in such a scenario South Africa and West Indies are the likely semi-finalists.

USA’s poor run rate means they’ll need two huge results to stand any chance of finishing in the top two: they will first need to beat England by at least 56 runs (assuming a total of 160) to go past them on NRR, and then hope that West Indies lose by at least 91 runs for their run rate to drop below USA’s.

If USA and West Indies win

In this case, West Indies and South Africa will qualify with four points, while England and USA will finish on two.

If England and South Africa win

South Africa, with six points, and England, with four, will be the semi-finalists.