Reform predicted to win 18 seats in new MRP poll

Rishi Sunak and a swathe of senior ministers would lose their seats, including Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, and Oliver Dowden, the Deputy Prime Minister.

A number of Tories tipped to run for the party leadership in the event of an election defeat were also forecast to lose their seats. They include Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary, and Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons.

Senior Tories on course to survive the Labour landslide include James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, Tom Tugendhat, the security minister, and Laura Trott, the chief secretary to the Treasury.

Suella Braverman, the former Home Secretary, is predicted to be ousted by Reform in Fareham and Waterlooville.

She said last month that she would “welcome” Mr Farage joining the Conservatives, a prospect which he dismissed because of what he said were “high tax, high immigration” Tory policies.

The survey represents Reform’s best polling return to date. Their previous best was on June 15 when Survation predicted the party would win seven seats.

Mr Tice, the party’s chairman, said the “bombshell poll” represented an “election bloodbath”.

‘Vote Reform, get Reform’

Rupert Lowe, the former Ukip MEP who was predicted to win in Great Yarmouth, said: “Another mega-poll just out. Reform winning in EIGHTEEN seats. Great Yarmouth is one of them.

“A vote for the Tories here is a wasted vote. Only Reform can beat Labour. Vote Reform, get Reform!”

Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “The Conservatives are predicted to be in third place in terms of both votes and seats. That would be a disaster for them.

“Labour look set for a massive landslide, but with about one million fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn got in 2017.

“More than one voter in every three is going to vote for a party other than Labour or the Tories, which shows many people want change but are not thrilled by Labour.”