Box-office Bumrah will give India edge in T20 World Cup final against South Africa | Mark Ramprakash

A washout in Guyana on Thursday, for the semi-final between England and India, would have been disastrous for this T20 World Cup. It really isn’t ideal that one semi-final, played between South Africa and Afghanistan, had a reserve day and the other didn’t. The ruling that the side that topped their Super Eight group advanced to the final in case of an abandonment is also unconvincing. It must also seem strange to people that India knew before the tournament where their semi-final would be held if they got that far. I’m just glad the match got played.

The conditions on offer were probably the most difficult this England side could have faced. The pitch didn’t suit their natural style of cricket and was more like one you would find in India as opposed to England. Given that India got a score that was 15, possibly 20, runs above par, England were right to go hard in the powerplay. But it is a high-risk policy, and it was unfortunate their shots didn’t come off. Axar Patel was the star man for India, but Kuldeep Yadav bowled beautifully. He has improved so much, particularly in the past two years, with his variations of pace, and Jasprit Bumrah’s wonderful cutter to get rid of Phil Salt set the tone.

Naturally, when England exit a global tournament there’s the question of who to blame. This team shouldn’t come in for too much criticism, having performed reasonably well and got to the semi-finals without being quite at their best. Yes, expectations are high with a side who have so much talent, and after a disappointing 50-over World Cup last year, Rob Key, England’s men’s managing director, will have to review where this white-ball outfit sit currently. Jos Buttler spoke maturely after the loss about taking some time away to reflect on his side’s display. But there is no need for root-and-branch reform and wholesale changes. Ultimately, they were up against the best team in the tournament who were more adept at playing on that type of surface.

I must admit to having a little soft spot for South Africa. You have to as a cricket fan, having seen their historic struggles to get to a men’s World Cup final before finally conquering that hoodoo in this tournament, and they were well worth their win over Afghanistan. The pitch in Trinidad was not befitting of a World Cup semi-final – when you bring that amount of uneven bounce into a game it’s not right, turning it into a bit of a lottery. That being said, South Africa were outstanding, with their fast bowlers steaming in and doing their job to bowl Afghanistan out for 56. It was a shame in one way, because Afghanistan were brilliant in the tournament, but South Africa have been so consistent with a well-balanced side that, like India, enter the final unbeaten.

South Africa have got powerful batters and – again, like India – they can rein it in too, recognising that a knock of 25 off 23 is fine if it gets the team over the line. David Miller will be particularly important for them in the final, alongside Quinton de Kock, as the two left-handers in their batting lineup. De Kock will aim to get them off to a flyer but Miller has the crucial task in the middle overs of taking on India’s left-arm spinners.

But I’m leaning towards India taking the trophy at the Kensington Oval, having seen the way they turned it on against England under the pressure of a semi-final. The obvious man to watch from their side is Bumrah, who has 13 wickets in the tournament at an average of 8.15 while going at an economy rate of 4.12. I remember travelling to India in 2017 to watch a couple of Indian Premier League games and this guy walking past me with his glasses on at the hotel reception, no earrings or tattoos, resembling a student. It was Bumrah.

He wasn’t strapping, as you might expect from a fast bowler, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t box office. He has unorthodoxy with his trajectory, sheer pace to go with his wonderful change-ups. I played a little bit with the former Pakistan spinner Saqlain Mushtaq at Surrey and he had that bit of magic where he could make something happen even when the pitch was flat. Bumrah has that too. When he comes back for the last couple of overs at the death, I mean, where do you start on how to play him? You can’t go around playing ramp shots because of his slower-ball variations, and his quick ball is really quick. He’s surrounded by good bowlers, but he is India’s X factor.

Hopefully, we have a pitch in Bridgetown that is worthy of a final, one with pace and bounce that aids exciting strokeplay. But sure enough, with both sides possessing canny slow bowlers, spin is definitely going to have a say in where the trophy ends up.