Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 06/29 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (1 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Washington Mystics Over 173.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on MNMT

The Aces seem to slowly be getting back on track, at least offensively, and that should help fuel plenty of scoring today. Vegas has averaged 91.0 PPG the past 7 games, which is an easy way to put totals like this within reach. But they’ve also allowed 89.3 PPG in that stretch, which is another easy way to put this total in play.

The Aces have really struggled to guard the perimeter, ranking last in the league for opponent three-point percentage. Washington is a three-happy team that shoots it pretty well, and they’ve been filling it up lately against weaker defenses like they’ll see here. This total has been rising for a reason, and I think we see another shootout today.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Wings/Seattle Storm Over 167 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on NBATV

If the Dallas Wings are playing, I’m just about auto-betting the over. The Dallas defense can’t stop anything and don’t have any interest in it either, allowing 87.1 PPG this season and 89.7 in June. Even an inconsistent Seattle squad can take advantage of that, and they showed they can in a 92-84 win in the previous meeting a couple weeks ago.

The hope is that Dallas also figured out some of their offensive issues on Thursday because they’ll face a tough defense here. But if the Wings set the tempo tonight and bring their usual lackadaisical defense, I think this total is easily reached.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pablo Lopez Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 9:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Let’s be honest, Pablo has not been the Pablo of last year. The Twins ace has struggled with consistency, having wildly varied results in all his stats from game to game, strikeouts included. But he was filthy in his last start, recording 14 K’s against Oakland, which admittedly is a team that strikes out a lot.

But there’s only one team with a higher strikeout rate than the A’s, and Lopez faces them tonight. Seattle’s dead last strikeout rate actually gets even worse against righthanders, so if Lopez carries anything over from last game, he should be fanning plenty of Mariners tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2359-2166 ATS (+95.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.