Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 06/30 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Dream @ NY Liberty -4.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN

Last we saw the Liberty, they were choking away a big lead and letting the Lynx steal the Commissioner’s Cup. So in the first game off that loss, I’m expecting New York to come out motivated and angry, especially at home on national TV. Coincidentally, the game right before that was in Atlanta where the Liberty ran up an 11-point first quarter lead on their way to a blowout of the Dream. With Rhyne Howard still out and now Aerial Powers possibly missing today’s game, Atlanta just doesn’t have the backcourt to keep up with a Liberty team that has dominated first quarters all season and should again today.

MLB (1 Unit): Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:35 PM CT on NBCS-PH

This Phillies lineup is elite, at least when it’s healthy. That’s simply not the case right now with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber both dealing with injury. The result has been the Phillies struggling to score since they were hurt, scoring just 4 total runs in the past 2 games without them, and this number is not a big enough adjustment to their absence. I don’t see the Phils managing much early today against Yonny Chirinos who has had 2 strong starts to begin his season.

The Marlins meanwhile will be lucky to get anything across against Ranger Suarez today. The leading NL Cy Young candidate has been close to unhittable at home, posing a 1.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in Philly. He has also dominated Miami in his career, with their bats owning a cumulative .172 batting average and .541 OPS against Suarez. The Marlins are truly awful against lefties in general, so look for both teams to be quiet at the plate early today.

MLB (1 Unit): NY Yankees/Toronto Blue Jays Over 8 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:37 PM CT on YES

I’m finding this total very strange given how these teams have played so far this season. The season series is 7-2 over this total with 10.9 runs on average, with the current series getting pretty wild with 11, 12, and 21 runs. The number today is low because of Gerrit Cole starting, but he’s been far from his usual self returning from injury, and both games he has started flew over.

With the Toronto lineup finally awake, scoring 7.2 runs per game the past 6 games, I think the Blue Jays can get plenty on the board today. And they’ll need to because the powerful Yankees lineup is likely to tee off on Kevin Gausman in this one. The Jays righty has been awful at home with a 6.43 ERA and .315 opponent on-base average, and the Yankees lead baseball in scoring, weighted runs created, and wOBA against righties. This could turn into a slugfest and make such a low total laughable.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2361-2167 ATS (+95.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.