Global population to peak within this century as birth rates fall, United Nations report says

The world population is on course to peak earlier than expected this century as some of the world’s largest countries face declining birth rates, according to the United Nations.

According to the organization’s biennial World Population Prospects report, global population is projected to peak at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s from the current 8.2 billion. It is expected to gradually decline to 10.2 billion by 2100 — 6% lower than anticipated a decade ago.

The UN in 2022 had estimated the world population would peak at 10.4 billion by the 2080s. 

“In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions,” UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, Li Junhua, said in a statement. 

“The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption,” Li added.

Globally on average, women are having one child fewer than they did in 1990. In over half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman has fallen below 2.1, which marks the level required for a population to maintain a consistent size without migration. The UN cited that countries such as China, South Korea, Spain and Italy have “ultra-low” fertility rates.

As of 2024, the population has already peaked in 63 countries including China, Germany, Japan and Russia. The total population of these countries is stipulated to fall by 14% over the next 30 years.

However, in nine countries including Niger, Somalia, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo, “very rapid growth” is projected where total population of this group is set to double between 2024 and 2054.

For 126 countries including the United States, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan, population is expected to peak in the second half of the century or later.