Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/12 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/Seattle Storm Under 155 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ION

These are two elite defensive teams, with Minnesota 2nd and Seattle 4th in points allowed, along with 1st and 3rd, respectively, in opponent shooting percentage. And they’ve played like it so far this season in three meetings, combining for 153, 156, and 147 points in regulation. But Lynx star Napheesa Collier played in all three games, putting up a total of 68 points, and Minnesota is going to miss that scoring tonight. But the Lynx can still defend without her as they’ve shown in the past two games allowing just 67 points in each, and they’ve held the Storm to just 70.7 regulation PPG this season. I think the pace will be slower and defense the storyline tonight, keeping this one under the total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury/Indiana Fever Over 174.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

This is a rematch of two weeks ago when these teams combined for 170 points. But I think we get a few extra points tonight from two teams who can really score when they want to, and have issues on the defensive end. That first meeting saw both teams shoot an identical 8-for-28 from deep, for a percentage that is well below the season-long numbers for both of them.

Neither defense is good against the three, so there’s positive regression coming here. And a second-half collapse from Phoenix allowed the Fever to erase a 15-point lead and steal the win, so more consistency from the Mercury will help boost scoring. These are two relatively up-tempo teams with defenses near the bottom of the league, so I expect plenty of points in this rematch.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins -1.5 @ SF Giants (+130; Odds via Caesars): 9:15 PM CT on Bally Sports North

It’s Joe Ryan Day, against a mediocre opponent, who’s trotting out a lefthanded starter, and the Twins are guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats. What more do you want? I think that creates a serious mismatch here, and this price is pretty surprising given how far apart I view these teams. Ryan should have an easy time against a Giants team that is poor against righties compared to lefties.

If he does, then the offense should give him plenty of support against lefty starter Kyle Harrison, as the Twins are 1st in batting average and OPS, plus 2nd in wOBA versus lefthanded pitching. The last trip to the west coast for the Twins saw them go 6-3 with all of those wins by multiple runs, and I think they continue that here at a juicy return.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Garrett Crochet Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+139; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNet PT

The strikeout prop market for Crochet is tough to navigate straight up because of excess juice, so I don’t want to lay a heavy price at the standard number of 7.5 tonight. So I’ll go one rung up the ladder on the alternate number here to get a nice plus-money return. Crochet has been much filthier at home this season, averaging 1.49 K’s per inning compared to 1.29 on the road so that’s a boost. And in 8 of his 11 home starts he has logged at least 8 strikeouts so that’s a great floor. Considering he’s facing a Pirates team that can’t hit and has the 5th-highest strikeout rate against lefties, I think Crochet gets to this alt number and perhaps beyond.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2373-2188 ATS (+88.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.