2024 Sun Belt Conference Football Preview and Best Bets

The Sun Belt is the Fun Belt for a reason. It’s one of the last truly regional conferences at the FBS level, and the games tend to be a bit more wide open. Actually, ‘Wide Open’ is a great way to describe the 2024 Sun Belt Conference. Here is my 2024 Sun Belt Conference preview and best bets!

The Troy Trojans won the Sun Belt Conference last year, but their coach left, and they went through a transfer portal raid. While Troy always has a chance to compete for the Sun Belt West, the odds of a repeat aren’t looking great.

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2024 Sun Belt Conference Football Preview and Best Bets

Sun Belt Conference Favorite: Appalachian State +275

Appalachian State enters 2024 as the odds on favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference, but the Mountaineers come at a 3-to-1 odds. Is this worth taking? Actually, it is.

The Mountaineers enter just about every season as a potential conference champion. Since joining the FBS ranks in 2014, The worst Appalachian State has finished since making the jump is 6-6 in 2022. They’re always in it.

This year’s team is led by senior quarterback Joey Aguilar and has a host of weapons to help him out. Both of the Mountaineers’ top pass catchers from last year are back, and the top running back is slated to be ‘star-in-the-making’ Kanye Roberts.

On defense, Appalachian State had to start many underclassmen last year, and most of them are back for 2024. Top pass rusher Nate Johnson and interior lineman Santana Hopper should give the Mountaineers teeth up front, while junior defensive back Ethan Johnson is expected to step up. This is always a solid group, but they return many guys who earned valuable experience last year.

On the schedule this year, the Mountaineers do have one back-to-back road spot. It comes when they go to Marshall on October 5th and follow that with a trip to Louisiana on October 12th. However, they do miss Troy and Texas State.

Appalachian State’s only other in-conference road games come at Coastal Carolina and at Georgia Southern to end the season. Coastal enters 2024 with their weakest roster in three years, and Georgia Southern is a 50/50 for the Mountaineers at worst.

The Mountaineers need to avoid the back-to-back road game land mine, pick up the win at Georgia Southern, and only manage to lose one game or go undefeated at home. This team is talented and experienced enough to make it happen.

Appalachian State is worth a sprinkle for the Sun Belt Conference championship, but they’re also +130 to win the Sun Belt East. Back up any conference title win with a division win. The division at plus odds makes sure you break even, and the conference championship is pure profit.

Sun Belt Conference Contender: Texas State +400

Texas State may have the best offense in the Sun Belt Conference this year. Wait, what? The Bobcats lost quarterback T.J. Finley to the transfer portal. Finley threw for 3,439 yards and posted a 24:8 TD: INT ratio. How is this offense going to be better?

They replace Finley with the 2023 Sun Belt Player of the Year, Jordan McCloud. The offense also returns starting running back Ismail Mahdi and two of their top three pass catchers. Texas State also brought in Boston College transfer Jaden Williams to round out their receiver room.

The Bobcats offense should absolutely fly in 2024.

On defense, Texas State returns a senior-laden group that’s led by pass rusher Ben Bell. Bell looks to improve upon a 10-sack season last year.

The Bobcats’ conference schedule doesn’t include back-to-back road games, and they miss Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, James Madison, and Marshall.

The only obvious loss is an October 3rd match up at Troy. Other than that, Texas State doesn’t have any conference games that are worse than a 50/50. They have road spots at Old Dominion, ULM, and South Alabama.

Texas State should make it out of the Sun Belt East and challenge for the Sun Belt Conference championship. Before the season kicks off, make sure you have a share of the Bobcats at 4-to-1 odds.

Sun Belt Conference Dark Horse: Arkansas State +1500

This is bordering on longshot, but why not Arkansas State? Sophomore quarterback Jaylen Raynor started as a true freshman for the Red Wolves and didn’t look completely overmatched. He only threw 2,550 yards, but his TD: INT ratio was only 17:7. Raynor also ran for 373 yards and five touchdowns.

Raynor is back to lead Arkansas State offense and has most of the same supporting cast around him. The Red Wolves also added former Arkansas quarterback Malik Hornsby in the transfer portal as a wide receiver. Hornsby only appeared in a few games for Texas State, but should be better in his second year at receiver.

On defense, it would be impressive to see Arkansas State play worse than they did in 2023. The Red Wolves allowed 32.3 points per game, good for 107th in the nation, but four Sun Belt teams allowed more points against. That means the Red Wolves weren’t really that bad in context, right?

Arkansas State added a lot to their defense through the transfer portal. Defensive lineman Micaiah Overton, edge Noah Collins, and defensive back Jordan Mahoney figure to see significant time on the field in 2024 for the Red Wolves.

On the schedule, the Red Wolves have two back-to-back road spots in conference. However, they miss James Madison, Appalachian State, and Marshall this year.

The Red Wolves would need to split both back-to-back road spots and sweep their home games. The only game that’s worse than a 50/50 is on October 26th when Troy comes to Jonesboro. They’ll need that game if they want to win the Sun Belt West and make it to the conference championship.

It’s long odds, but we’ve seen seasons that have been even more unusual in the Sun Belt.

Must-Bet Win Total: Old Dominion Under 4.5 Wins

Old Dominion will struggle in 2024, and it will be challenging to find five wins on their schedule.

The Monarchs return quarterback Grant Wilson and two of his top pass catchers from last year. They don’t return much else in terms of offensive weapons, and their offensive line lacks experience.

On defense, the Monarchs have replaced their entire defensive backfield through the portal, and one of their top linebackers graduated. The defensive line has a bit of juice, but the back eight has the potential to be rough at the start of the season.

The Monarchs’ non-conference slate includes South Carolina, East Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Bowling Green, which is four losses.

Old Dominion starts conference play with back-to-back road spots at Coastal Carolina and Georgia State. They could clip Coastal Carolina in a rebuilding year, but they’re losing at least one of those games.

They also have trips to Appalachian State and Arkansas State. Both of those games look like losses.

The Monarchs get Texas State, Georgia Southern, James Madison, and Marshall at home. Georgia Southern and Marshall are potential wins, but Texas State and JMU are, at best, 50/50 games and, at worst, losses.

That’s maybe four wins and a cover that doesn’t appear to be all that sweaty. Look to fade the Old Dominion Monarchs in the Sun Belt Conference this year.

Do You Need More College Football Season Previews?

If you’re gearing up for the 2024 college football season and want to know about more than just the Sun Belt, SGPN has you covered. The Sports Gambling Podcast has in-depth conference previews for every conference, even the PAC-2.

Also, The College Football Experience goes even deeper on every single FBS team with win total picks and college playoff best bets. Check out our previews, take our best bets, and let it ride!