Services PMI® at 51.4%; July 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 54.5%; New Orders Index at 52.4%; Employment Index at 51.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 47.6%

TEMPE, Ariz., Aug. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector expanded in July, a trend that has been interrupted only three times — though twice in the last four months — since early in the coronavirus pandemic, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The Services PMI^® registered 51.4 percent, indicating sector expansion for the 47th time in 50 months.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In July, the Services PMI^® registered 51.4 percent, 2.6 percentage points higher than June’s figure of 48.8 percent. The reading in July marked the fifth time the composite index has been in expansion territory in 2024. Before April, the services sector grew for 15 straight months following a Services PMI^® reading of 49 percent in December 2022; the last contraction before that was in May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 54.5 percent in July, which is 4.9 percentage points higher than the 49.6 percent recorded in June and a return to expansion after one month of contraction. The New Orders Index expanded to 52.4 percent in July, 5.1 percentage points higher than June’s figure of 47.3 percent; however, the index’s current reading is its fourth-lowest since early in the pandemic. The Employment Index expanded for just the second time in 2024; the reading of 51.1 percent is a 5-percentage point increase compared to the 46.1 percent recorded in June.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 47.6 percent, 4.6 percentage points lower than the 52.2 percent recorded in June. The index returned to contraction territory — indicating faster supplier delivery performance — in July after two months in ‘slower’ territory. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 57 percent in July, a 0.7-percentage point increase from June’s reading of 56.3 percent. The Inventories Index contracted for the second consecutive month in July, registering 49.8 percent, an increase of 6.9 percentage points from June’s figure of 42.9 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (63.2 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from June’s reading of 64.1 percent) expanded for the 15th consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index returned to expansion territory for the fifth time in 2024, registering 50.6 percent in July, a 6.6-percentage point increase compared to the June reading of 44 percent.

“Ten industries reported growth in July. The Services PMI^® has expanded in 17 of the last 19 months dating back to January 2023, and the July reading is only 0.9 percentage point lower than the average of 52.3 percent over that period of time. Also, the PMI^® has not recorded back-to-back months in contraction since April and May 2020, another indication of sustained growth for the sector.”

Miller continues, “The increase in the composite index in July is a result of an average increase of 5 percentage points for the Business Activity, New Orders, and Employment indexes, offset by the 4.6-point drop in the Supplier Deliveries Index. The last time Supplier Deliveries was in contraction (faster) territory while the other three indexes registered expansion was in November 2023. Survey respondents again reported that increased costs are impacting their businesses, with generally positive commentary on business activity being flat or expanding gradually. Comments continued to express a wait-and-see attitude regarding the upcoming presidential election, with one respondent expressing concern over potential increases in tariffs. Many panelists noted a return to more stable supply chain performance, albeit with higher costs.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 10 services industries reporting growth in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Utilities. The eight industries reporting a decrease in the month of July — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Educational Services; and Other Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING 

• “As was the case in June, restaurant sales and traffic remain flat compared to last year. A heat wave in California, rising gas prices and general angst about menu prices have tempered consumer demand.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “Business in 2024 has been steady. The length of our busy season — typically March to mid-June — has extended into mid-July. Volumes have not increased considerably, but the consistency of shipments has been a benefit to our supply chain.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• “Business is strong in our industry, water treatment. Prices have been fairly flat, but there’s some pressure from increasing costs.” [Construction]
• “While interest rates on home loans continue to change dramatically at times, the number of members requesting loans has remained relatively steady.” [Finance & Insurance]
• “Inflation markups have been issued from suppliers.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “Business conditions seem to be stable at this time.” [Educational Services]
• “Our main market is the U.S. Due to the election year, new projects are not moving forward as expected. Many of our customers are waiting for the election results to develop new projects.” [Information]
• “High interest rates continue to affect long-term buying decisions.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Cost of construction services continues to be above predicted budget. Materials deliveries are reliably on time.” [Public Administration]
• “High food costs are having an impact on customer demand and resulting in flat business overall. Business activity stable. Supplier costs also flat in general.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (3); Construction Contractors (7); Beef; Food; Fuel; Labor (44); Labor — Construction; Labor — Contract; Labor — Technical (3); Natural Gas Products; Office Supplies; and Vehicles.

Commodities Down in Price
Copper; Lumber (3); and Steel Products (3).

Commodities in Short Supply
Construction Contractors; Construction Subcontractors; Electrical Components; Electrical Equipment (2); Labor (6); Syringes (3); and Transformers (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

JULY 2024 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^® 
In July, the Services PMI^® registered 51.4 percent, a 2.6-percentage point increase compared to the June reading of 48.8 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the July Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is expanding after contracting in June. Miller says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for July (51.4 percent) corresponds to a 0.8-percentage point increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 54.5 percent in July, 4.9 percentage points higher than the 49.6 percent recorded in June, returning to expansion after contracting in June for the first time since May 2020. The Business Activity Index has been in expansion territory for 49 of the 50 months since its coronavirus pandemic lows. Comments from respondents include: “Seasonality” and “Business activity is still good, but there are some signs of challenges ahead.”

The 11 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The three industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, and Scientific & Technical Services.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 52.4 percent in July, 5.1 percentage points higher than the reading of 47.3 percent registered in June. The index returned to expansion after contracting in June for just the second time since May 2020. Comments from respondents include: “Many projects in our queue” and “Additional data center projects are coming out for bid.”

The 10 industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; and Educational Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of July — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector indicated growth in July for the second time in 2024, with five months of contraction following the previous expansion in January. The Employment Index registered 51.1 percent, up 5 percentage points from the June figure of 46.1 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Have many open requisitions to fill and personnel to train for the fall and 2025 ramp up” and “Higher productivity instead of replacing turnover.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in employment in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Public Administration. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in July, listed in order, are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Supplier Deliveries
In July, the Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster performance, a reversal after two consecutive months of slower deliveries. The index registered 47.6 percent, down 4.6 percentage points from the 52.2 percent recorded in June. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Distribution appears to have recovered, finally, from the long lead times during the pandemic” and “No delivery performance issues; sufficient supply on goods and services.”

The six industries reporting slower deliveries in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Educational Services. The seven industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of July — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; and Utilities.

Inventories
The Inventories Index contracted for the second consecutive month after two straight months of growth, which was preceded by contraction from December to March. The reading of 49.8 percent was a 6.9-percentage point increase compared to the 42.9 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 44 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Intentionally working down inventory” and “Extreme drought conditions halted fertilizer top-dress on corn, beans and hay crops.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in July — in the following order — are: Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease in inventories in July are: Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; and Utilities. Six industries reported no change in inventories.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in July for the 86th consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 57 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than the 56.3 percent recorded in June. The July reading is the 25th in a row near or below 70 percent (including 14 of the last 15 months at or below 60 percent), following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent from September 2021 to June 2022.

Eleven services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of July, in the following order: Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; and Utilities. The three industries reporting a decrease in prices paid in July are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Construction.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index expanded in July for the fifth time in 2024, following a contraction in the previous month. The reading of 50.6 percent is 6.6 percentage points higher than the 44 percent reported in June, as well as 2 percentage points higher than the index’s average of 48.6 percent going back to January 2023. Of the total respondents in July, 41 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Orders have come (in) at more traditional levels, and out-on-time percentage has increased” and “More projects started.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in July — in the following order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Information; and Retail Trade. The seven industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in July — in the following order — are: Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies increased in July for the third consecutive month after contracting in April and expanding for 11 of the 12 months before that, with the lone contraction in October. The New Export Orders Index registered 58.5 percent, a 6.8-percentage point increase from the 51.7 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 71 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S. Respondent comments include: “Continuing and steady increase in business in Europe and Asia” and “New projects in emerging markets like Colombia and Brazil have provided the company with new business opportunities, while projects in the U.S. have remained steady.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in new export orders in July — in the following order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in July are: Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Retail Trade. Seven industries reported no change in new export orders in July.

Imports
The Imports Index expanded for the first time in three months in July, registering 53.3 percent, 9.3 percentage points higher than the 44 percent reported in June. The index has indicated expansion in 18 of the last 23 months, with contractions in June and May of this year, March 2023 and December 2023, and an “unchanged” status (a reading of 50 percent) in May 2023. Sixty-eight percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials. Respondent comments include: “Had to place orders for seasonal products from Europe” and “Low-cost country (LCC) sourcing to China is coming in at half the price and faster lead times.”

The six industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of July — in the following order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in imports in July are: Other Services, Educational Services, and Retail Trade. Nine industries reported no change in imports in July.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the 15th consecutive month in July after one month of contraction in April 2023, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction from August to November 2022. The index registered 63.2 percent, a 0.9-percentage point decrease from June’s figure of 64.1 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The 11 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Retail Trade; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. No industry reported feeling that its inventories were too low in July. Seven industries reported no change in inventory sentiment in July.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of July 2024.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^® 
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM^® Report On Business^®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January, the report is released on the fourth business day of the month.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring August 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, September 5, 2024.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management