Genius Sports Projects 20% Growth With NFL, EPL Deals Locked Up

Data and analytics provider Genius Sports posted better-than-expected revenue of $95.5 million in the second quarter of 2024, and it told Wall Street it predicts annual growth of 20% for the foreseeable future thanks to its exclusive, multiyear data rights to the NFL and English Premier League.

“The focus that we’ve had over the last couple of years on execution is really looking to drive both revenue and margin growth over the coming period, so we’re feeling good,” Mark Locke, Genius founder and CEO, said on a call with analysts Tuesday. “We’ve got everything on the right side—we got probably the two most important global rights locked up for a really long period.”

Genius Sports has exclusive rights to U.K. soccer into 2029, while it holds rights for the NFL, one of its largest shareholders, into 2028.

In the quarter ending June 30, typically Genius’ most predictable given a seasonal decline in U.S. sports betting, the company sales figure beat Wall Street consensus slightly. The business did miss net loss expectations, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, posting a net loss per share of nine cents, while the average of 13 analysts expected a loss of three cents. On the top line, Genius’ sports betting segment saw sales rise 18% to $67.1 million in its largest operating division, while two other divisions, media and sports technology, saw sales decline.

Despite the mixed results compared to expectations, Wall Street seemed heartened by Genius’ outlook, sending shares up more than 7%, to $6.43, on heavy volume in the first hour of Tuesday trading. Genius raised its projected sales for the full year to $510 million—analysts had been projecting about $500 million—while also saying it expects an expansion of its gross margins and positive cash flow for 2024.

For the longer term, the company said its focus on technology continues to allow it to expand product offerings for clients and partners, which underpins expected growth. For example, Genius’ extension of data rights to the top divisions of English and Scottish soccer included the recent launch of the first fantasy app for the English Football League, which covers the divisions below the Premier League. The company said the EFL fantasy app was the leading download on Apple’s U.K. app store and the second-most popular free app overall in the country.

For much of the emergence of sports betting data providers, including Genius, as publicly traded entities, the cost of official data rights has long been a focus of skeptical investors. Without detailing price expectations, Locke allowed that the competitive field for sports data rights has shrunk to essentially two players—Genius and Sportradar—which suggests pricing pressure on acquiring and extending rights in the future should ease with few bidders.

“As we sit here today, all the major global data rights sit with only the two largest players for the balance of the decade. This was not the case a few years ago,” Locke said. “We expect reduced competitive tension moving forward, which should support a more stable and predictable operating landscape.”