Recession Fears: What the Skift Travel 200 Is Telling us Now

Skift Take

To hear most travel executives tell it, there is reason for optimism across the travel industry. But travel stock prices are flashing warning signs. Who will be proven right?

Seth Borko

Travel stocks were the best performers Monday, a day when the broader U.S stock market had its worst day in years – but don’t get too excited.

Fact is, travel had front-loaded the pain. While it was Monday’s best performing sector, the travel sector has been the worst performing group of stocks over the past week and past year. 

The wider selloff was the result of growing concerns about an economic slowdown and a middling earnings season. As most travel spending is optional, it is seen as one of the sector’s most vulnerable to a recession. 

That concern is clear in the performance of the Skift Travel 200, our own index of travel stocks.

It traded down 8.2% over the past week, underperforming the broader S&P 500, which fell 5.1% over the same period. That would make travel the second worst performing group of stocks alongside the related consumer discretionary sector. 

Breaking the travel sector down even further into its subsectors shows large imbalances within our industry. The ground transportation sector has fallen 35% in 2024, driven by Hertz’s devastating 64% decline.

Airlines have also pulled down the travel industry. but perhaps that’s no surprise given some very well publicized investor displeasure with Southwest and other major airlines. 

On the other hand, cruise lines have been the best performing travel sector in 2024, followed by accommodations. Even though these businesses outperformed their travel peers, there is still no major travel subsector in the green so far this year. 

It’s clear that recessionary fears are spooking investors and travel sits at the center of those concerns.

Skift Travel 200 by Sector

Updated daily by 10pm ET, following the closure of all global trading markets.

The Skift Travel 200 (ST200) combines the financial performance of nearly 200 travel companies worth more than a trillion dollars into a single number, making it easy to track travel industry performance for the first time ever. See more on travel company stock performance.