NFL Preseason Week 1 Preview, Picks, and Best Bets

The NFL has a full slate of games this weekend! Eleven weekend games and three on Friday, and not only do we get to see players take the field, but we can bet it!  Will the third-string defense have a stud we didn’t know about? Let’s take a look at the NFL preseason Week 1 preview, picks, and best bets by breaking down five different bets I feel good about.

Betting the preseason can be tricky because you never know how many reps any given player is going to get. Will the second-string quarterback end up facing the third-string defense? These are the unpredictable things that make betting the preseason tougher but fun. We all love a good challenge, right?

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NFL Preseason Week 1 Preview, Picks, and Best Bets

First Half Unders

Before we get into individual games, I’d like to start with something I always bet. First half unders. I know you’ve heard the Sports Gambling Podcast guys talk about that in March Madness. NFL preseason can be similar, especially in Week 1. The first game jitters. The rust you need to shake off and take your first big hits can start the game a little bit slow.

Last year, this bet didn’t pan out very well. However, to this day, parlaying first-half unders is still one of the biggest bets I’ve ever hit. Despite last year not panning out, it’s still one of my favorite NFL preseason Week 1 bets. The Hall of Fame game started differently. The Texans started fast, scoring 17 points in the first half. The Bears and Brett Rypien then took off in the second quarter, scoring 14.

However, despite the Bears-Texans starting this off on a sour note, Thursday’s games followed suit. Both hit their first half under easily. 2-1 is a good start, and I think the other games will follow the pattern.

I’m not saying to bet the mortgage on this, but taking first-half unders can be lucrative as teams start. Starters normally see one series, but backups haven’t had as many reps. This is one of my favorite preseason bets.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens (+1.5)

NFL Preseason Week 1 Best Bet: Ravens +1.5

Chicago bears (+2.5) @ buffalo bills

On paper, you’re going to think you should immediately take the Bills. It makes sense. The Bills are a far more talented team and, in a regular season game, would likely get a win. However, as you already know, this is the preseason. One of these teams has already hit the field.

Despite not finishing the Hall of Fame game, the Bears got three quarters of play in, which can make a huge difference. The Bears are my next best NFL Preseason Week 1 bet, just on the principle that they’ve already played a game. Sure, it’s the second road game for the Bears, but I think they’ll be ready.

Bears backup Brett Rypien looked like he was fighting for his job. Tyson Bagent didn’t get much playing time, but we’ve seen him have success already at the NFL level. Bears also saw some standouts where it wasn’t expected, such as receiver Collin Johnson.

Then there’s quarterback Austin Reed, who only got a few reps in before the game was called. However, he had a decent college career and will be looking to develop.

On the Bills side, Josh Allen and starters will get some reps in according to Sean McDermott. You could always go with the revenge angle of their backup, Mitch Trubisky, getting reps against his old team. Sure, Allen and Trubisky could start running up the score against the Bears, especially if Bears starters aren’t in long. However, then they’ll turn to third-string quarterback Shane Buechele.

The SMU quarterback had an okay college career, transferring from Texas to SMU. However, this will be his first in-game reps. Something the Bears hold over him. People may call it homerism, given my Bears fandom. However, the Bears almost notched a win in the Hall of Fame game and are now hungry for a win.

NFL Preseason Week 1 Best Bet: Bears 2.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

Apparently, Doug Pederson takes preseason seriously, much like John Harbaugh. Anyway, he did last year, as the Jaguars finished with a 3-0 record after playing the Dolphins, Lions, and Cowboys.

Only the Cowboys game was close, ending 28-23. They beat the Dolphins by 13 and the Lions by 18. I expect the Jaguars will approach this year’s preseason games with the same intensity and a focus on winning.

On the other side of the ball is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have also turned in some preseason wins. However, this is the returning Super Bowl champs.

The starters don’t need many reps, if any, this week against the Jaguars. I’m not even sure we will see much of Carson Wentz. Therefore, the quarterbacks we will likely get are small-school Chris Oladokun and Saints castoff Ian Book.

Even if we see some of Trevor Lawrence, it likely won’t be extensive action. That means the Jaguars will feature more of Mac Jones. Mac Jones is playing with a massive chip on his shoulder after all the hype in New England and then getting traded away this offseason.

Behind him, Iowa Hawkeye star CJ Beathard will also get action. He’s a veteran who has had some valuable NFL snaps already.

The Chiefs may be Super Bowl favorites this year, but Andy Reid won’t be too concerned with preseason. While Doug Pederson may not necessarily be worried about it either, he seems to have the backups prepped well.

NFL Preseason Week 1 Best Bet: Jaguars (-1)

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

This one is more of a gut feeling for me. The Colts’ and Broncos’ seasons have very different expectations. The Colts have their returning quarterback and are set to prove themselves. The Broncos are rebuilding with Sean Payton and living life post-Russell Wilson. For preseason, though, so many times a game comes down to the quarterback play.

Anthony Richardson may not get any reps. If so, like most starters, it will be a series or two. I also don’t envision Joe Flacco getting many reps. Flacco has been around the league more than long enough that they know what they have in him. Therefore, we’ll likely see heavy doses of Sam Ehlinger and Kedon Slovis.

I’m a fan of Sam Ehlinger, don’t get me wrong. However, I don’t know if he’s going to have a ton of NFL success. I also like Kedon Slovis. He’s got a lot of raw talent coming out of BYU. These will be his first NFL reps, though, and with first reps, there are always hiccups. The Colts have some question marks in offensive line depth, defensive depth, and wide receivers.

The Broncos quarterback room will be a very interesting one to watch. They currently have Jarrett Stidham listed as their top quarterback. However, Zac Wilson will have a chip on his shoulder and want to impress.

Even more importantly, Bo Nix, who I’m much higher on than most, will want to prove he doesn’t belong at the third quarterback spot on the initial depth chart.

The Broncos have a lot of young talent who should be hungry and excel as well. Behind Javonte Williams in the running back room, there is veteran Samaje Perine. They also have Jaleel McLaughlin, who showed a lot of flashes last year.

Finally, there is Audric Estime, the rookie out of Notre Dame who may be the best suited for Sean Payton’s offense. The Broncos may be a team that’s better than their low expectations.

NFL Preseason Week 1 Best Bet: Broncos (+1.5)