Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/12 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers Team First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+125; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

I will keep taking this approach every time Brayan Bello takes the mound at Fenway. I don’t care what team is in town, there is usually a juice mismatch like the one today that can be exploited. Bello is expected to give up runs like he always does, with his 10 home starts seeing the visitor go 7-3 over his 2.5 earned runs prop tonight. So that is juiced heavily at -130, and I’ll gladly take a shot that the Rangers get their runs early at a 55-cent price advantage. Bello is returning from the paternity list for this start, so his rest and focus aren’t likely to be 100% and I think the Rangers are able to capitalize.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

I’m not surprised to see a low total here considering the names taking the mound here, but it’s still far too low a number considering the offenses involved. The Brewers might be the most underrated offense in the league, and are certainly capable of getting to Clayton Kershaw here. The Dodger lefty has had two good home starts since returning from injury, but the road has been a different story.

And Freddy Peralta is just not a name I trust despite him having plenty of talent and some elite level starts this season. Peralta tends to blow up in weird spots, has an elevated ERA at home this season, and is facing a Dodgers team with a top-5 offense versus righties. These teams put up plenty of runs in their first series against each other this season, and overs have been the dominant trend in MLB lately, so look for another here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves @ SF Giants First 5 Innings ML (-105; Odds via Fanduel): 8:45 PM CT on NBCS-BA

This looks to be an excellent matchup of elite lefty starter versus elite lefty starter, but digging down a little further shows the Giants have the advantage here. Even Chris Sale should be vulnerable against a Giants team that has been top-5 against lefties over the past several weeks, and Sale has been tagged for more runs that usual in his past several starts.

It might only take a single run from San Fran to cash this the way Blake Snell has looked lately. He had the typical letdown spot last game after his no-hitter, but should pick up where he left off. His past 6 starts have seen him post a ridiculous 1.15 ERA and 0.59 WHIP. He should be able to shut down a Braves team that can’t hit lefties, or anything right now, and is dissembling before our eyes. A tie game after 5 nets a refund here, but I think the Giants take the lead in this sneaky-good matchup for them.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +101.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.