We ran 100 simulations on College Football 25. How often did Utah make the College Football Playoff?

Call it the “Doctor Strange meets college football” project.

Utah football is seen — both by local reporters and national pundits — as a strong contender to break into the College Football Playoff as it debuts its new 12-team format this season.

It’s a season full of change for the Utes, who moved from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 Conference this offseason. In their new home, Utah is already viewed as one of the top teams in the league.

That got me thinking, as the much-awaited release of EA Sports College Football 25 neared last month, does the College Football 25 video game view Utah as a CFP contender?

To figure that out, once I picked up my copy of the game, I set out on a mission — simulating 100 seasons to see how Utah would fare both in the Big 12 and in the playoff.

Sure, it’s not the 14,000,605 possible outcomes Doctor Strange ran through his mind in Marvel’s “Avengers: Infinity War” when determining if the Avengers could defeat Thanos, but ain’t nobody got time to calculate that many simulations.

After 100 simulations, though, it became clear that if a lot of what was happening in these video game simulations ended up happening in real life, Utah fans would be satisfied with the 2024 season.

How each of the 100 simulations was carried out

I used the game’s “Dynasty Mode” feature to simulate a season, did not change any settings and made Utah the team I coached. And then I did that 100 times.

There were a couple ground rules in place:

Each time, I skipped recruiting and the offseason entirely and simulated to the end of the regular season to see conference standings, bowl and College Football Playoff matchups and which players won individual national honors.

If Utah played in the Big 12 championship or a College Football Playoff game, I would enter the game as a user, then play a couple of plays, for a couple reasons.

No. 1 was so I could grab screenshots from the play or two that I actually played — otherwise there wouldn’t be highlights to get screen grabs, which I used as art for this story, from — and No. 2 was so I could then use the Super Sim feature to track the progress of the game and better follow the action.

In most scenarios, I only played one or two plays before getting the screenshot I needed (the max was four, when I was on defense and the team I was playing was in hurry up mode, and I didn’t want to waste a timeout), and in turn, my impact on the overall game was minimal and wasn’t a factor in who won or lost.

How many times did each Big 12 team win the conference championship?

The overall numbers here are reflective of the the teams who are projected to be conference favorites this year, with Utah — who was the Big 12 favorite in the preseason media poll released in July — winning the Big 12 championship most often in these simulations.

Here’s how many times each Big 12 school won the league championship during the simulations:

• Utah — 24 times
• Kansas State — 20
• Oklahoma State — 16
• Texas Tech — 13
• UCF — 10
• Cincinnati — 4
• Colorado, Iowa State — 3
• Arizona, Baylor, West Virginia — 2
• Kansas — 1
• Arizona State, BYU, Houston, TCU — 0

How many times Utah made the Big 12 championship: 51 times.

These simulations gave Utah a just-better than 50% chance of making it to the Big 12 championship this year, and the Utes won in 47% of the time in those simulations.

It also became clear that if there was a rival that might develop for Utah, it would be Oklahoma State.

While the Cowboys won the Big 12 championship third-most among league programs, Oklahoma State beat Utah six times in the Big 12 championship game. The Utes, conversely, beat the Cowboys four times in the conference title game.

How realistic was this?: Honestly, this feels mostly right with Utah, Kansas State and Oklahoma State leading the odds to win the Big 12 title.

The number of times Texas Tech and UCF won the Big 12 felt a bit high — and so did Cincinnati winning it in four simulations, one year after the Bearcats won three games total.

Perhaps the Red Raiders and Knights won so many because, surprisingly, Arizona and Kansas were not big factors in the Big 12 title race throughout the majority of simulations, which seems a bit off for two programs who are in the “real world” preseason Associated Press top 25 rankings.

How often did Utah reach the College Football Playoff?

In the 100 simulated seasons on College Football 25, this is how often Utah qualified for the College Football Playoff and what kind of berths and seeds the Utes received:

How many times Utah appeared in the College Football Playoff: 46 times.

Automatic CFP berths for Utah: 24.

At-large CFP berths for Utah: 22.

CFP seeds Utah received:

• No. 1 seed: One time.
• No. 2 seed: Five times.
• No. 3 seed: 10 times.
• No. 4: Six times.
• No. 5 seed: No times.
• No. 6 seed: Two times.
• No. 7 seed: Three times.
• No. 8 seed: Four times.
• No. 9 seed: Four times.
• No. 10 seed: Six times.
• No. 11 seed: Three times.
• No. 12 seed: Two times.

First-round CFP byes Utah received: 22.

Of Utah’s 22 at-large berths in the playoff, four of those came even though Utah did not qualify for the Big 12 championship game. In the other 18 at-large berth simulations, Utah was the runner-up in the Big 12.

How realistic was this?: Utah’s most common seed was the No. 3 seed, which is believable considering they are the favorite to win the Big 12. No. 3 or No. 4 seeds make up 22 — or 34.7% — of the Utes’ seeds in these simulations, while another 19 — or 41.3% — are eight to 12 seeds, a range where Utah would likely be an at-large bid.

Those numbers overall seem realistic.

One thing that seemed unrealistic at times in these simulations was how many times three or more Big 12 teams made the CFP in a given season. There were 17 times three Big 12 teams made the CFP and four more where four teams made the playoff, while there were two times no Big 12 team qualified for the CFP, when two Group of Five schools made it instead.

Those 23 simulations, in particular, edged into unrealistic territory, considering the parity of the Big 12.

By comparison, 36 times only one Big 12 team made the College Football Playoff — the most likely scenario in real life — and 41 times, two league teams did.

How did Utah fare in the College Football Playoff?

Of those 46 times Utah made the playoff, the Utes won at least one game 20 times, or 43.4% of the time.

Here’s a look at their by-year records in the CFP:

• 0-1 record: 26 times.
• 1-1 record: 15 times.
• 2-1 record: Four times.
• 3-0 record: One time.

Yes, you read that right — in one simulation, the Utes won the national championship (there’s more information on that season at the end of the article, I promise).

Number of times Utah reached the CFP semifinals: 10 times.

Utah had a 5-5 record in CFP semifinal appearances in the simulations — all of those came after the Utes received a first-round bye in the CFP playoffs.

Number of times Utah reached the CFP National Championship: Five times.

In the one simulation where Utah won the national championship, the Utes, as a No. 4 seed, beat No. 3 seed Texas A&M to win the national championship.

In the other four simulations where Utah made the CFP National Championship but lost, they fell 30-25 to Miami, 25-13 to Georgia, 31-13 to Florida State (when Utah was the No. 2 seed and the Seminoles the No. 1 seed) and 42-9 to Oregon.

How realistic was this: Sure, it may sound unrealisitc on a case-by-case basis to think that Utah made the national championship game five times. But considering that equates to giving Utah a 5% chance to make the title game, that could seem believable, considering the coaching leadership at Utah and the players they have returning this season.

Also, giving Utah a 10% chance to make the CFP semifinals seems reasonable as well, given the hype surrounding the team this season.

Utah ended the season ranked in the top 10 on 41 occasions, and 55 times the Utes won 10 or more games.

Again, those are numbers that don’t seem far-fetched if things go as planned for Utah this year.

Which Utah players won national awards?

Not surprisingly, Utah seventh-year quarterback Cameron Rising was a popular name that kept popping up when national individual awards were handed out at the end of each regular season.

Rising won the Heisman Trophy in two different simulations, and several times he was awarded the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award and Best QB honors.

Others like tight end Brant Kuithe, wide receiver Dorian Singer, kicker Cole Becker and defensive tackle Junior Tafuna won individual national awards on multiple occasions.

How realistic was this?: Kuithe has a realistic shot at the Mackey Award — given to the nation’s top college tight end this year, and while Rising could get himself into the Heisman conversation, it would be a shock if he actually won it.

While I didn’t keep track of this, the names I most often saw winning the Heisman were these three quarterbacks: Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Ohio State’s Will Howard.

How often did Utah beat BYU?

In 100 simulations, the Utes defeated the Cougars 80 times.

In those wins, Utah outscored BYU by an average score of 34.3 to 20.5. In BYU’s 20 wins, the Cougars outscored the Utes by an average score of 31.4 to 24.4.

How realistic was this?: To be honest, Utah’s win percentage here seemed low — given that this is BYU’s second year in the Big 12 and the Cougars are still developing better depth across the board, and BYU has plenty of question marks surrounding its quarterback situation.

Who won the national championship most often?

There was a tie when it came to which school won the national championship the most often. Here’s a look at the top five:

• Oregon — 20
• Ohio State — 20
• Georgia — 11
• Michigan — 8
• Alabama — 6

The Buckeyes made it to the national championship more times than the Ducks — Ohio State went 20-10 in national title games — though Oregon won the national championship 85.7% of the time it made the title game in the simulations, at 20 of 26.

Six other schools won a national championship multiple times while 15 others won once.

Three Big 12 teams in total won a national championship — Utah, Oklahoma State and Kansas State. All three teams made it to the national championship game multiple times, led by seven times by the Cowboys, who went 4-3 in the title game.

How realistic was this?: The reality is that blueblood programs won the national championship the majority of times, but there were some head-scratchers along the way.

Fans from schools like Boise, Liberty and Louisiana would be ecstatic to hear their team won a national championship during these simulations, though reality would beg to differ. Texas State almost won one, though Ohio State outlasted them in overtime.

As for the Big 12, having Oklahoma State reach the national championship seven times seemed excessive, as did NC State winning the national championship in five simulations.

Those two led the way among non-SEC or Big Ten Power Four schools.

It was clear early on in the simulations that Oregon and Ohio State were well-favored in College Football 25, and these numbers just proved it. They match up well with 50 simulations from Fox Sports, where Oregon (18), Michigan (seven) and Ohio State (five) won the national title the most often.

How Utah won its lone simulated national championship

In Simulation No. 24, the Utes won the national championship, beating Texas A&M 21-10 in the national title game.

Utah ended up going 15-1 in its championship-winning simulation and beat Colorado 35-27 in the Big 12 championship.

Here’s the path the Utes, as the No. 4 seed, took through the College Football Playoff in their winning scenario:

• Fiesta Bowl (CFP quarterfinals): Beat North Texas, 35-17
• Orange Bowl (CFP semifinals): Beat Ohio State, 28-22
• CFP National Championship: Beat Texas A&M, 21-10

How did North Texas end up being Utah’s first CFP opponent? The Mean Green, as the No. 12 seed and the Group of Five conference champion representative, upset defending national champion and No. 5 seed Michigan 35-31 in the first round, setting up a matchup with Utah in the Fiesta Bowl.

How Utah won the Fiesta Bowl

The Utes got out to a 21-3 halftime lead over North Texas in cruising in their quarterfinal matchup.

Rising completed 77% of his passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns and added 57 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, while Micah Bernard carried the ball 12 times for 90 yards in the win.

Karene Reid had a team-high eight tackles and Nate Ritchie added six tackles and an interception for the Utes.

How Utah won the Orange Bowl

The Utes knocked off the Buckeyes by building a 21-14 halftime lead, then held on in the fourth quarter to fend off Ohio State.

Utah forced the Buckeyes into two turnovers — both interceptions — and did not turn the ball over themselves, while converting three red-zone attempts into touchdowns. Ohio State, meanwhile, reached the red zone just once, scoring a TD on that drive.

Rising completed 22 of 30 passes (73%) for 290 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Both TD passes went to Money Parks, who had nine receptions for 130 yards.

Defensively, Georgia Tech transfer cornerback Kenan Johnson had five tackles and an interception for the Utes.

How Utah won the CFP National Championship

For the third straight game, Utah won the turnover battle — forcing two and losing one — in beating Texas A&M for the national title.

The Utes took a 14-10 lead into halftime and added a fourth-quarter touchdown to pull away for the victory.

Unlike the first two CFP games, Utah outgained its opposition in the CFP title game, with 269 yards for the Aggies compared to 353 for Utah.

Rising was efficient again, completing 14 of 17 passes (82%) for 209 yards and two touchdowns, while Bernard added 67 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.

Munir McClain led the Utes with 79 receiving yards on three catches and caught a touchdown pass.

Linebacker Lander Barton came up big for Utah defensively, finishing with a game-high 10 tackles and a sack, while Ritchie added four tackles and his second interception during the CFP run.

In conclusion

Overall, this experiment seemed to be a strong representation of the expectations that surround Utah into the 2024 season.

If the Utes don’t have to deal with nearly as many injuries as they did during the 2023 season, Utah could well break into the playoff, as many of these simulations suggest.

Now, don’t mind me as I FINALLY get the chance to play a full game on EA Sports College Football 25. It’s been a fun project, but I am ready to stop doing simulations and actually start playing the game.