Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/15 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Under 4 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on FS1

The Twins were smart to push Bailey Ober’s start from yesterday to today. Ober gets crushed by the Royals, but he should have a much easier time tonight against a Rangers team that’s been struggling. They’re just returning home from a long road trip with no rest, so likely won’t be on top of their game here.

Plus, they actually hit worse at home and have been awful against righties like Ober, who’s been excellent in recent weeks in allowing just 4 total runs across his past 4 starts. And sadly, this patchwork Twins lineup just isn’t cutting it. Texas starter Cody Bradford, who has been strong at home with a 2.35 ERA and .167 opponent on-base average, is likely to keep Minnesota’s backup bats quiet here and create a low-scoring start tonight.

WNBA (1 Unit) NY Liberty/LA Sparks Over 164.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

I can’t figure out why this total is so low aside from some injuries to mid-level role players on both teams. Yes, Cameron Brink is sadly out for the season, but these teams played twice already this season and both games came after Brink’s injury. Those games saw 173 and 186 points, with no crazy statistical outliers powering either result, and tonight’s total is lower than the closing totals for those games.

The only other factor I can think of would be Olympics fatigue for Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart, but I can’t see why that would warrant such a drastic change in the number here. It might actually help drive scoring if New York’s defense suffers, so look for the league to re-start its season with a bang on national TV here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +99.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.