Tom Krasovic: AJ Preller has turned Padres’ payroll crunch into World Series contention

It’s laughable that anyone would speculate about A.J. Preller’s job security anymore.

The Padres’ president of baseball operations has done so well cutting $90 million from payroll that Scott Boras and MLB’s players union might fear that other teams’ owners will ask their GMs to do the same.

Preller was desperate to find players who would outperform their salaries.

It’s called surplus value. Think of it as baseball helium.

Preller found enough to float a blimp.

No one in baseball would’ve guessed last November the Padres would show as much pitching aptitude as they have.

Not with 2023 Cy Young winner Blake Snell and stellar starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha departing because Preller couldn’t afford to pay them.

Not with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, the veteran holdovers, coming off injuries that ended their 2023 seasons.

Adding to the strain, the Padres’ top two pitching prospects, as rated by various media, would regress in this season’s first half.

Taking everything into account, it’s extraordinary where things stand on the mound.

The Padres are 69-53 entering Friday’s series opener against the Rockies. They boast starting pitching that would seem to compare well with the rotations of most World Series contenders.

Preller found salary-exceeding bargains in trades for starters Dylan Cease, Michael King and now, through three starts, his old Rangers colleague Martín Pérez. For relatively modest sums of $3.14 million and $8 million, King and Cease boast strikeout rates that eclipse most contenders’ top tandem.

Low-cost knuckleballer Matt Waldron ran with the opportunity Preller gave him. Making it a quintet, Musgrove returned to the rotation this week. Darvish would be an exciting addition, if his personal situation allows for it.

Preller seems to have hit a home run as well by moving Mike Shildt into the manager’s job that opened up after Preller and Bob Melvin butted heads too often.

Giving Shildt a chess edge, Preller recently supplied him a second closer who’s having a dominant season — Tanner Scott, now tagging out with Robert “Four-Seam” Suarez, the man who dares opponents to hammer his fastball and seldom regrets it. All told, the bullpen now appears to have better depth and “wow” pitches than many teams do.

Like so many teams, the Padres are hoping the volatility of pitching doesn’t wallop them in the coming weeks. To appreciate the high-stakes precariousness, they need only consider the contrasting fortunes of their co-aces with those of Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Healthy, Cease and King have thrived under coach Ruben Niebla. (Per former pitchers Mark Grant and Dan Plesac, Cease has benefited this season from a change to glove-side arm action.)

Meanwhile, the Dodgers invested $400 million last winter in Yamamoto — including posting fee, luxury-tax overage and insurance — only for manager Dave Roberts to let him throw 43 pitches in his first official inning. The MLB newcomer’s needlessly high-stress launch came in the Seoul Series/Money Grab in mid-March; Yamamoto rebounded well, but exited a game this summer with a reported shoulder ailment and hasn’t pitched in two months. He’s expected to return soon, but will not be fully built up.

On the hitting side, the Padres have evolved a contact-driven approach that’s stretched dollars long distances. Along with the hitters, Shildt and new hitting coach Victor Rodriguez deserve free local craft beer for the offense being both more entertaining and less exasperating this year.

Instead of imitating the Swingin’ Friar, who nearly busts out of his sandals in pursuit of the upper deck, the Padres are banging line drives at MLB’s highest rate and striking out at its lowest rate.

Preller reaped a helium bonanza by holding on to Jackson Merrill two summers ago after Nationals GM Mike Rizzo tried to get him in the Juan Soto talks, and by buying low on Jurickson Profar, whom he knows better than any other GM.

Undervalued Donovan Solano and Luis Arraez arrived early this season. Preller got Solano for a minor-league contract, and the Marlins paid all of Arraez’s salary in return for three Padres prospects, none of whom Preller will regret trading, per a neutral MLB scout.

Arraez and Solano can hit a variety of pitches. They can take them, too: Arraez watched a second strike so catcher Kyle Higashioka — another bargain addition — could steal second base.

Later in the at-bat, Arraez whacked a righty’s pitch for a run-scoring hit.

That’s something Arraez does better than anyone else, as evidenced by his MLB-best .338 batting average against right-handers since 2019. (Yes, for all his contact-making, Arraez could stand to earn more walks.)

Solano has a super power too: against both lefties and rights, he raps hits at a brisk rate. His averages of .313 and .288, respectively, put him among only six hitters to place in those two top 20s since 2019. The others: Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve and Padres teammate Xander Bogaerts.

Forced to stretch dollars, Preller passed on the more expensive Tommy Pham before signing Solano for baseball pocket money.

It’s been that kind of ride so far. The Padres stand to eclipse their 2023 team that stood third in payroll, while several other contenders are underperforming oddmakers’ projections.

Told to do a whole lot more with a whole lot less, A.J. Preller has out-GM-ed many of his competitors.

Originally Published: August 15, 2024 at 4:07 p.m.