UFC 305 gambling preview: Can Dricus du Plessis retain his middleweight title against Israel Adesanya?

This Saturday, the UFC returns to Perth, Australia for UFC 305, headlined by a middleweight title fight between Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. It’s a fight that looked like it may have been derailed entirely with Adesanya’s shocking upset loss to Sean Strickland last September, but now that du Plessis is the champion, the matchup is back from the dead, and it brings with it 11 other fights for the Perth fans.

So let’s dive into the best bets for this weekend.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Dricus du Plessis (-105)

I have a larger breakdown of this fight over on SBNation, so we don’t need to get into too much detail for the main event, but it’s a pretty simple bet: I believe Israel Adesanya is past his prime, perhaps by a decent amount.

Adesanya is 35 years old and has 145 fights (that we know about) to his name. That’s a lot of mileage for anyone. Too much mileage. I think we saw his decline manifest pointedly in the Sean Strickland fight and that’s not something that gets better. Add in that du Plessis is a cagey fighter (I’ve comped him to Yoel Romero) at the peak of his powers and that lines up for a “DDP” win.

Dan Hooker (+270)

Dan Hooker takes on Mateusz Gamrot in the featured bout of the evening as a heavy underdog. Too heavy, in my opinion.

Coming off the Jalin Turner war, I was prepared to fade Hooker in his next bout, because that’s the type of fight that changes fighter’s careers. But then he got this matchup, and while in a straight head-to-head I might pick Gamrot, Hooker has a very good chance to win this one.

Gamrot is all cardio chain wrestling, and Hooker, for his faults, is a very solid defensive wrestler and grappler. He will be able to stuff many of Gamrot’s shots, if not all of them, and he has the superior striking game. Plus, Gamrot isn’t much risk to hurt Hooker on the feet, so my biggest concern for Hooker isn’t in play this fight.

Casey O’Neill (+130)

I’m not sold on Luana Santos, at least not yet. Santos certainly has talent but she’s also been somewhat mercurial in her performances while O’Neill was on her way straight up the rankings before getting upended by Jennifer Maia. No shame in losing to a veteran like Maia, but the loss to Ariane Lipski afterwards has but O’Neill’s back to the wall and I expect to see her fight like it. As long as she doesn’t get overrun in the grappling, O’Neill’s high pace and output on the feet give her a clear path to victory.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Prop Bets

Tai Tuivasa To Win By KO/TKO/Decision (+250)

Picking a man who is currently on a four-fight losing streak to break that streak with a finish may not be the smartest idea I’ve ever had, but it’s one I’m committed to.

Tuivasa takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a main card heavyweight title, and despite his run of terrible performances, he’s got a decent shot in this one. Rozenstruik is also a kickboxer but doesn’t have a bulletproof chin and is prone to getting into sloppy engagements. That’s where Tuivasa makes his money.

If Tuivasa gets knocked out in this one, it’s probably the end of his career. But I’m betting he’s got a little more left in the tank. And when Tuivasa wins, it’s almost exclusively by knockout, so take the extra edge with the prop.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

In 25 career fights, Prates has gone to a decision three times. The man is simply an exceptional get-or-get-got fighter who hasn’t even seen the third round since 2019. Jingliang certainly has a few more decisions under his belt but in his 16 fights in the UFC, “The Leech” has only seen the scorecards six times and he’s coming off a nearly two-year layoff. I expect this fight to be violent.

Photo by Brenton Ho/Zuffa LLC

Parlay of the Week

When there’s a gimmick to be had, I’ll parlay it and there are two available this week. First is the former KSW champion gimmick with du Plessis and Gamrot, but since I’m fading Gamrot, we can’t do that. So instead we’ll have to fade the brothers!

This card features FOUR fighters who have brothers in the UFC: Alex Reyes (Dominick Reyes), Herbert Burns (Gilbert Burns), Valter Walker (Johnny Walker) and Junior Tafa (Justin Tafa). You may also notice from that list that each of these men’s brothers are better than they are, with one exception (it’s debatable but Junior appears to be better than Justin).

Fortunately, that works in our favor as Tafa and Walker are scheduled to fight each other anyway, so let’s we have a very simple “Fade The Less Good Brother” parlay available which is both deeply silly and quite fun.

Parlay these three bets together for +115 odds.

Wrap Up

I’ve been waiting for this main event for a long time so I’m pumped for this weekend. Hope y’all are as well.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

All information in this article is provided to readers of MMA Fighting for entertainment, news, and amusement purposes only. It is the responsibility of the reader to learn and abide by online gambling laws in their region before placing any online sports betting wagers.