Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/17 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 1:00 PM CT on CBS

These teams have met twice this season, with very consistent outputs from Washington of 67 and 68 points, with 36 and 37 coming before halftime. Both of those games were at Target Center though, and I don’t know that this total is doing enough to adjust for Washington’s performance in home games. It doesn’t seem to matter who visits DC, the Mystics get hot in first halves at home this season.

Washington is averaging 45.0 first half points per game at home, while going 10-2 over this total with 9 straight. Even better defenses than Minnesota’s have come through and been humbled early by a Mystics squad that usually finds the range with their high-volume three-point shooting. And now that the Mystics are fully healthy with Karlie Samuelson back in the lineup, they should get the home court boost needed to clear this total.

MLB (0.6 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This game features two teams in their worse hitting splits up against two quietly solid starting pitchers, a combination that I think creates another slow start tonight. The Twins have pitched their way to two wins so far in Texas, and David Festa should give them another strong start in this one. After a rough intro to the show his past four outings have been impressive, and with the Rangers struggling so much against righthanded pitching, he should continue that here.

But the Twins on the road against a quality righty is no recipe for offense either, and Nathan Eovaldi’s home numbers of a 3.09 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and .193 opponent on-base average are very impressive. I think both offenses struggle and we see another early pitcher’s duel early on in Arlington.

NFL Preseason (0.5 Unit) Arizona Cardinals/Indianapolis Colts Over 36.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NFL+

Handicapping the preseason is an exceedingly difficult guessing game most of the time, but one thing I do know is that Shane Steichen likes to turn these games into high-scoring affairs. The young Colts coach is now 4-0 to the over in preseason games, with none of them going below 40 points including last week’s shootout with Denver. Every Indianapolis quarterback got a shot in that game, and every one of them was trusted to throw the ball and execute the up-tempo offense. I’m hoping we get a look at Kyler Murray in this game as that would really stress the weak Colts defense, but either way I see an easy path to plenty of points here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +99.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.