Job growth set to be revised down by 818,000 jobs – Washington Examiner

The government’s figures for job growth over the past year are set to be significantly revised down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The agency said that total employment growth through March of this year is set to be revised down by 818,000. That is 0.5% of total jobs, a larger revision than normal.

The revisions, which are part of the agency’s routine process for updating its estimates of job growth, are preliminary. The final revisions will be made with the jobs report for January of next year.

The BLS re-benchmarks its payroll employment numbers, which are based on a monthly survey of establishments, to a comprehensive count of jobs, a process that can result in major revisions.

That comprehensive count, the BLS’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, is a quarterly assessment of employment and wages reported by employers, covering more than 95% of U.S. jobs.

Still, it is possible that the QCEW is understating true job growth. 

One reason that might be the case is that it is less likely to capture the employment of unauthorized immigrants. A recent analysis from the Congressional Budget Office, which incorporated data from the Department of Homeland Security regarding the numbers of people crossing the border without authorization, found that the influx of illegal immigrants over the past few years has resulted in faster population growth and higher employment than reported by the BLS.

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Goldman Sachs economists noted in a recent commentary that the QCEW is based on comprehensive unemployment insurance records, but unauthorized immigrants generally don’t qualify for unemployment benefits.