Mobile Shopping Forecast to Heavily Drive Sales for the 2024 Holiday Season and Beyond

Mobile shopping has continued to be a dominant force for consumers — with it quickly taking over for shoppers who research, compare prices and share their selections online, all in one place.   

During the beginning of 2024, mobile spending has seen growth enough to rival desktop shopping. Adobe Analytics, which analyzed commerce transactions online covering one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and 100 million stock keeping units across 18 product categories, predicts a tipping point to come in the upcoming months.  

Namely during the upcoming holiday season, mobile shopping was a dominant force last year. And into 2025, Adobe forecasts that mobile commerce will quickly surpass desktop spending in the months outside of holiday spending.  

The shift to mobile spending has been a slow yet steady growth — the 2021 holiday season saw 43 percent of online sales driven by mobile commerce. However, consumer sentiment has shifted to demanding speedier and more convenient transactions and has been a major force in the uptick in mobile checkouts. This upcoming 2024 holiday season, Adobe predicts that 53 percent of online sales will be driven by mobile devices. 

In January 2024, mobile shopping made up nearly 47 percent of all online sales and by July 2024, the number increased to nearly 49 percent. The average mobile spending share averaged out to nearly 48 percent for the past seven months — which amounts to $280.4 billion spent on mobile devices from January to July of this year, a 10.2 percent growth year over year. 

Another major driving force has been the uptick in promotional events with mobile spending surpassing desktop spending during major shopping events such as Amazon’s Prime Day, Fourth of July and Memorial Day sales.  

The rise in mobile spending has strengthened the increase of e-commerce categories such as groceries and personal growth including cosmetics. Adobe Analytics reports 77 percent of online sales on mobile devices in July 2024 and growth in cosmetics resulting in $22.6 billion, an increase of nearly 8 percent year-over-year. Apparel has also seen mobile spending as a domineering force, with nearly 61 percent share of mobile spending in July 2024. 

Large retailers (defined as $1 billion or more in annual revenue) have seen a shift in shoppers using mobile devices amounting to nearly 53 percent of online sales on a monthly average. But this is a major contrast to smaller retailers (defined as $10 million to $100 million in annual revenue) who see mobile checkouts at a monthly average of 43 percent. Hence, the opportunity to grow in revenue — as mobile spending is seen as a major player in driving impulse shopping.  

“Adobe Analytics data shows that consumers have embraced mobile shopping for purchases that are more frequent and lower in price, but we expect larger purchases will begin to shift toward smaller screens as well,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. “Adobe’s data also shows that basket sizes on mobile are 32 percent smaller than on desktop, which presents both a challenge and opportunity for brands to refine mobile experiences and close the gap to drive revenue.”