Yahoo Sports Top 25 rankings: Which teams will make cut in first season of new College Football Playoff?

Welcome to the first part of the Yahoo Sports 2024 preseason college football Top 25.

With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams this season, we figured we’d reveal our top 25 a little differently than usual. Below are previews for the teams that are ranked Nos. 13-25 in our top 25 and we’ll roll out previews for the 12 teams we think will make the playoff in the coming days.

It’s important to note that we believe the teams ranked at Nos. 13 and 14 in our top 25 will finish higher than that in the final College Football Playoff rankings. The CFP format includes the top five conference champions and seven at-large bids. Since five conference champs are automatically included, it’s very possible — and maybe even likely — that a team in the top 10 of the final rankings misses the playoff since it didn’t win its conference.

Let’s get to the rankings. (Last year’s record in parentheses.)

Yahoo Sports Top 25

No. 25 USC (8-5 in 2023)

Miller Moss and Jayden Maiava are competing to replace Caleb Williams at quarterback in an offense that needs to replace a lot of talent. The Trojans don’t bring back Williams, the last year’s top two rushers in MarShawn Lloyd and Austin Jones, and the top two receivers in Tahj Washington and Brendan Rice.

We’re confident Lincoln Riley will get the offense rolling and Moss appears to be the favorite to start at QB. The bigger question is on defense. D’Anton Lynn comes over from UCLA and inherits a defense that brings back nine starters … and allowed nearly 35 points and over six yards a play in 2023. We’ll find out about USC’s defense in September. The Trojans’ first four games include matchups with LSU, Michigan and Wisconsin.

No. 24 Texas A&M (7-6)

The Aggies bring back 18 starters and hope to get a full season out of QB Conner Weigman. He started the season well but played in just four games because of a foot injury. An offensive line that was young in 2023 returns all five starters and the Aggies should average more than the 3.9 yards per carry they did a season ago under new offensive coordinator Collin Klein.

New head coach Mike Elko was very successful in his two years at Duke and knows Texas A&M well from his time as defensive coordinator with the Aggies. Games against Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU and Texas are tough, but all four are at home. The Aggies should have a better record than they did in 2023.

No. 23 Louisville (10-4)

The Cardinals capitalized on a weak ACC schedule and a win over Notre Dame to start the 2023 season 10-1 before losses to Kentucky and Florida State ahead of a Holiday Bowl defeat to USC.

QB Jack Plummer is out of eligibility and replaced by former Oregon and Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough. He’s shown flashes when healthy, but Shough hasn’t played in more than seven games in any of his six previous seasons of college football.

The defense returns its top two tacklers in TJ Quinn and Devin Neal but the schedule is much tougher in 2024. Trips to Notre Dame, Clemson and Kentucky loom along with a home game against Miami. Four of the Cardinals’ final five games of the season are on the road, too.

No. 22 Arizona (10-3)

Brent Brennan arrives in Tucson from San Jose State and doesn’t have anything like the rebuilding job he had with the Spartans. Arizona has improved dramatically over the past three seasons and is positioned to compete for the Big 12 title in its first season in the conference.

Getting QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan to stay after coach Jedd Fisch left for Washington was massive. The Wildcats scored nearly 35 points per game a season ago and the offense should be explosive once again. The big question is the sustainability of the defensive improvement Arizona displayed in 2023. After giving up almost 37 points per game and 6.6 yards per play in 2022, the Wildcats allowed just 21 points per game and 5.4 yards a snap a season ago.

No. 21 Oklahoma (10-3)

Outside of Georgia, Oklahoma is the only other SEC team to have Alabama, Texas and Mississippi all on the schedule in 2024. Oh, the Sooners also have to go to Missouri and LSU and host Tennessee. Welcome to the SEC.

The success of the offense hinges largely on Jackson Arnold. The former five-star recruit takes over at QB for Dillon Gabriel after starting the team’s Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona. RB Gavin Sawchuk is back along with five of the top six leading receivers from a season ago.

The defense improved mightily in Brent Venables’ second season and returns its top six tacklers. Improving on last year’s total of 24 sacks is key.

No. 20 Miami (7-6)

Look, the Hurricanes have the talent to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff. But can you blame anyone for taking a wait-and-see approach after Miami has gone 12-13 in Mario Cristobal’s first two seasons?

Cam Ward arrives from Washington State and should immediately become one of the best QBs in the ACC. He’ll have receivers Xavier Restrepo (1,092 yards in 2023) and Jacolby George (864) to throw to. The defense loses safety Kam Kinchens but brings back Francisco Mauigoa and Rueben Bain. They combined for 15 sacks last season. The ACC schedule includes a trip to Florida State at the end of October, but is otherwise very manageable. Did we mention we’re in wait-and-see mode?

No. 19 Oklahoma State (10-4)

The Cowboys return 19 starters from a team that made the Big 12 title game a season ago after September losses to South Alabama and Iowa State. This year’s early schedule is tougher. The Cowboys open with home games against FCS champion South Dakota State and Arkansas before finishing the month with Utah and Kansas State.

We should know a lot about Oklahoma State and its playoff chances by the time the calendar flips to October. Star running back Ollie Gordon Jr. can be a Heisman contender, but QB Alan Bowman needs to be better to take pressure off Gordon. Bowman threw 15 TDs and 14 interceptions a season ago. Gordon needs some help carrying the offense in 2024.

No. 18 Iowa (10-4)

Iowa fans got their wish: The Hawkeyes enter the 2024 season with a new offensive coordinator. Brian Ferentz is gone and replaced by former Western Michigan coach Tim Lester. A scheme change and some injury luck could do wonders. The Hawkeyes bring back 10 starters on that side of the ball, including QB Cade McNamara. The Michigan transfer suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2023.

The defense should be stout like it always is. The top four tacklers from last season are back and the schedule is about as favorable as you can get in the Big Ten. Iowa doesn’t have to play Penn State, Michigan or Oregon. If you’re looking for a team outside the top four in the conference to play in the conference title game, don’t look any further than the Hawkeyes.

No. 17 Kansas State (9-4)

The Wildcats have a lot to replace on offense, including four starters on the offensive line and the top two receivers. But QB Avery Johnson is back after he split time with Will Howard in 2023, and so is RB DJ Giddens after rushing for over 1,200 yards and 10 TDs. Barring any offensive line hiccups, Johnson and Giddens will wreak havoc on the ground.

Kansas State has given up less than 22 points per game in each of the past three seasons and brings back eight starters on defense. Opposing QBs completed just 56% of their passes a season ago. Utah isn’t on the schedule this year, but K-State has to go to Tulane in Week 2 and then hosts Arizona in Week 3 in what’s considered a non-conference game.

No. 16 Tennessee (9-4)

Nico Iamaleava showed the promise he had when he arrived at Tennessee in the Volunteers’ 35-0 drubbing of Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. With Joe Milton gone, he enters the season as the undisputed starter and a sleeper Heisman favorite. He could thrive in Josh Heupel’s offense.

Dylan Sampson is in line to replace RB Jaylen Wright, and WRs Squirrel White and Bru McCoy are both back. The defense returns just five starters but the pass rush should be very good once again. Tennessee had 41 sacks a year ago and James Pearce is back after recording 10 of them. The Vols have both Alabama and Georgia on the schedule this season and a neutral-site matchup with NC State in Week 2 that could be very tricky.

No. 15 Clemson (9-4)

The Tigers again largely stayed out of the transfer portal in the offseason and are counting on another season in offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s system. The Tigers averaged fewer points per game and fewer yards per play in 2023 than they did in 2022.

Cade Klubnik was inconsistent in his first full season as a starter and returns a supporting cast that looks a lot like it did in 2023. RB Phil Mafah is back after rushing for 13 TDs and the receiving corps brings back four of its five leading pass catchers.

There’s a lot more to replace on the defense, but that’s always been an strong suit under coach Dabo Swinney. A trip to Florida State on Oct. 5 could serve as an ACC title game preview.

No. 14 LSU (10-3)

The Tigers are looking to avoid a major drop-off on offense and be much better on defense than they were a season ago. QB Garrett Nussmeier takes over for Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and the Tigers also need to replace receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. Joe Sloan takes over as the team’s play caller following Mike Denbrock’s departure to Notre Dame.

The defense has a new coordinator too. Former Missouri DC Blake Baker is tasked with improving a unit that gave up 6.1 yards a play in 2023. Major Burns, Greg Penn and Harold Perkins are all back on that side of the ball as LSU is still trying to best utilize Perkins. After a breakout season on the edge as a freshman, Perkins played off the ball a lot more a season ago.

No. 13 Penn State (10-3)

The Nittany Lions should be in the thick of the playoff race and a four-game stretch during the middle of the season will likely decide Penn State’s playoff fate. Penn State travels to USC on Oct. 12 before a game at Wisconsin two weeks later. After that, the Nittany Lions host Ohio State and Washington.

The rest of the schedule is very, very manageable. Going 3-1 in that span could be good enough for a playoff spot.

Offensive improvement is a must for the Nittany Lions in 2023 after that side of the ball was exposed against both Ohio State and Michigan. Drew Allar threw 25 TDs and just two interceptions in 2023 but completed less than 44% of his passes and threw for just two scores against the Buckeyes and Wolverines. He also failed to complete 50% of his passes in the Peach Bowl loss to Ole Miss. We’ll see what new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has in store to invigorate what was a stale and predictable attack at times last season.

The defense should be strong again despite the losses of Chop Robinson and Curtis Jacobs and a new coordinator in former Indiana coach Tom Allen. It’s easy to be bullish on Penn State’s chances of hosting a playoff game, but it’s also OK to be a little wary too.

No. 12 Boise State (8-6)

The Broncos got off to a sluggish start a season ago. Boise State was blown out in the season opener at Washington and then lost at home to UCF. A loss at Memphis dropped the team to 2-3 and Boise State needed a late surge to get back to .500.

That late surge came as the team changed coaches. Andy Avalos was fired in November as the Broncos were 5-5 following a win over New Mexico. Boise State won its final two games of the season under interim coach Spencer Danielson to make the Mountain West title game. There, the Broncos beat UNLV.

We think the Broncos have the best chance of any Group of Five team to make the playoff for a few reasons. Liberty has a great chance to go undefeated in Conference USA again, but the Flames’ blowout loss to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl a season ago may cause the selection committee to value schedule strength more than it did in 2023.

No. 11 Utah (8-5)

The Utes entered the season without both QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe and neither made an appearance on the field. Kuithe missed the season after suffering a season-ending knee injury in September of 2022 and Rising was out after he suffered a serious knee injury during the Rose Bowl at the end of the 2022 season.

Without Rising — and a top receiving target like Kuithe — the Utah offense struggled. After averaging nearly 39 points per game in 2022, Utah scored just 23 points per game in 2023. The defense was exceptional as it always is — the Utes gave up just 19 points per game — but the offense’s struggles capped the team’s ceiling.

If Rising stays healthy, the Utes should make the playoff. The veteran returns for what will be his seventh and likely last season of college football. He emerged as Utah’s starter in 2021 after transferring from Texas ahead of the 2020 season and was even better in 2022. He threw for over 3,000 yards and 26 TDs with just eight interceptions two seasons ago. He also rushed for 465 yards and six scores on the ground.

No. 10 Florida State (13-1)

Everything changed for Florida State against Northern Alabama last year. After an 11-0 start to the season, FSU’s playoff hopes came crashing down with the broken ankle that QB Jordan Travis suffered against their FCS opponent.

The Seminoles went on to beat Florida 24-15 in the regular season finale and the defense dominated Louisville in a 16-6 win in the ACC title game. But FSU’s offensive struggles without Travis were enough bump them out of the four-team playoff and many of the team’s key contributors opted out of the Orange Bowl loss to Georgia.

The Seminoles have a lot of top players to replace in their bid to repeat as ACC champions. But we’re confident they’re the favorites to win the conference ahead of Clemson and Miami.

FSU added former Clemson and Oregon State QB D.J. Uiagalelei for his final season of college football. He’s the stopgap replacement for Travis, though you can imagine coach Mike Norvell will tweak the offense to Uiagalelei’s strengths. Uiagalelei hasn’t completed more than 62% of his passes in each of the last three seasons. He could surpass that mark this season.

No. 9 Missouri (11-2)

The Tigers were one of the surprise teams of a season ago. A 61-yard field goal got the Tigers a win over Kansas State in September and Mizzou only lost to LSU and Georgia. For the second straight season, Missouri was Georgia’s toughest SEC East win.

The Tigers return nine starters on an offense that was one of the most efficient in college football a season ago. Luther Burden III may be the best wide receiver in the country and will move all over the field for the Tigers again in 2024. Burden had 86 catches for 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns as a sophomore.

The rushing attack needs to replace All-SEC RB Cody Schrader after the former Division II player rushed for 1,627 yards and 14 TDs. That’s not an easy task and it’ll likely be done by committee. Missouri added former Appalachian State RB Nate Noel and former Georgia State RB Marcus Carroll through the transfer portal. Each player has a 1,000-yard season to his name and Carroll had 1,350 yards a season ago.

No. 8 Michigan (15-0)

National champions. The end result of last year’s season can be encapsulated in two words. The story of the season could be a book series. Coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended at both the beginning and end of the regular season because of unrelated issues. The first related to his lack of cooperation in an NCAA investigation. The second came via the Big Ten because of the Connor Stalions sign-stealing scandal.

There’s still plenty of talent remaining at Michigan after its NFL exodus. Alex Orji is the favorite to take over for JJ McCarthy at QB and has shown flashes. The run game should be in good hands as RB Donovan Edwards returns and the offensive line should still be very, very good despite the loss of four starters.

The defense brings back five starters and could look a lot different schematically than it did a season ago. Minter was replaced by longtime NFL defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. And as NFL fans know, Martindale loves to blitz, blitz, blitz.

No. 7 Notre Dame (10-3)

Marcus Freeman’s second season at Notre Dame went a lot better than the first even though the Irish improved by just one win. The Irish blew out nearly every opponent it beat. Notre Dame’s closest win was a 21-14 victory at Duke after a tough, late loss to Ohio State. Every other victory was by three scores or more and the season was capped off with a 40-8 blowout win over Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.

The Fighting Irish bring back a bunch of talent, added a strong QB via the transfer portal for the second straight season and have a very manageable schedule. That’s a great recipe for a playoff appearance.

Notre Dame is, however, ineligible to get a first-round bye in the playoff. Since the top four seeds in the 12-team playoff go to conference champions, the Irish can only get a spot as an at-large team and the highest seed Notre Dame can be is No. 5.

No. 6 Ole Miss (11-2)

The Rebels made a three-win jump in 2023 as their only two losses were at Alabama and at Georgia. The season ended on a high note with a 38-25 win over Penn State in the Peach Bowl. The victory — and Ole Miss’ performance against both Alabama and Georgia — solidified the Rebels in the second tier of the SEC behind those two teams.

The Rebels bring a ton of talent back from the 2023 team and supplemented it with some key transfer portal additions. Throw in a schedule that includes two of its toughest games of the season at home and you can see why Ole Miss is aiming for the playoff.

QB Jaxson Dart took a big step forward a season ago in his second season as the Rebels’ starter. He threw for 3,364 yards and completed 65% of his passes. He also averaged 9.4 yards per completion and tossed six fewer interceptions. Three of the team’s four leading receivers are back too, including WR Tre Harris. He had 54 catches for 985 yards and 8 TDs in 2023.

No. 5 Alabama (12-2)

It’s a massive season of change at Alabama. That will be the theme across the Crimson Tide’s 2024 season as the football program embarks on its first season of the post-Nick Saban era.

Kalen DeBoer is fresh off a playoff appearance at Washington as the Huskies went 25-3 in his two seasons with the program. Overall, DeBoer is 37-9 as a head coach at the FBS level with Washington and Fresno State, and he was 67-3 in five seasons as a head coach at NAIA Sioux Falls.

There will be an adjustment period for sure. But there’s also no reason to think that Alabama won’t be very good again in 2024. Jalen Milroe rebounded after an early season benching in 2023 to throw for over 2,800 yards and rush for over 500. His growth over the course of the season was remarkable and he enters 2024 as one of the early Heisman favorites.

(The rest of the rankings will be revealed in the days leading up to kickoff.)