Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/23 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces @ Minnesota Lynx +2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ION

The Lynx have basically demolished the Aces in the past two meetings, making up for an early season loss. So I’m not understanding why this line moved from the opener of Minnesota favored by a couple points to here. Yes, Vegas has a tendency to exact revenge after losses, but the Lynx are looking like the better team here and the Aces are trading on name recognition to a significant degree. The Aces just can’t figure out the defensive end of the floor while the Lynx have easily the second-best defense in the league, so I’ll punch back against the steam here and take the points.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Minnesota Lynx Team Total Over 82.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

The Lynx have dropped 100 and 98 points in their past two wins over Vegas, and even including the dud in the first meeting they’re averaging 88.0 points against them this season. It’s an issue of three-point shooting, which the Lynx are best in the league at while the Aces are second-worst in defending. If those shots are dropping like they have in the past two meetings, the Lynx should find their way over this team total regardless of the game outcome.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 41.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

Any time the Mystics are at home I’m looking at their first half team total, especially against bad defenses. While they laid an egg in their last game, they just couldn’t find the range in the first half against a solid perimeter defense. They will not face a solid perimeter defense tonight, as the Sparks come to town with the worst three-point percentage defense in the league. Washington loves to fire away from deep, so if those are dropping against one of the league’s worst defenses, they should clear this total that’s below what they average for home games.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs/Miami Marlins Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

These two starting pitchers are really struggling, and I think it leads to another over in loanDepot Park tonight. Miami has been where overs go to thrive, with Marlins home games 46-18-2 to the over which is well ahead of any other stadium. The main reason for the overs having such success there is lower totals like this being posted because it’s supposed to be a pitcher’s park, but that just has me pouncing on a more attainable number.

I think Max Meyer has another rough outing here against a sneaky-good Cubs offense, continuing his awful August where he’s compiled an 8.38 ERA. But a Marlins offense with plenty of pop at the top of the order should also get to Kyle Hendricks, who has been atrocious on the road this season with a 7.28 ERA. With both bullpens also struggling, I see an opportunity here for plenty of scoring all game long.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +94.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.