Big Ten football gambling guide: Regular season win totals

College football is back! Week Zero has come and gone (we sure do need Northwestern back in the Ireland game) and with Inside NU beginning its week of full-scale football previews ahead of Saturday’s season-opener against Miami (OH), let’s dabble into an undeniably critical interest of the college football-watching community: gambling.

I am no high-wagering sharp, but I consider myself a ball-knower with enough credibility to offer some (responsible) betting advice. In this article, we will focus on Big Ten regular season win totals. All of the totals come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and for clarity, I’ll separate each team into one of three categories: plays where I like the over, plays where I like the under and win totals I would choose to stay away from.

Intriguing Overs

Ohio State Buckeyes: 10.5 wins (-160)

Ohio State, tied with Oregon, has the highest preseason win total of any team in the conference, but I still like them to exceed Vegas’ lofty expectations. Roster-wise, it’s an easy projection. They return most of the major contributors for a defense that ranked second in the nation in points allowed per game (11.2), trailing only Michigan. On offense, the improvement from Kyle McCord to transfer quarterback Will Howard, plus the addition of Quinshon Judkins to form a dynamic two-headed rushing attack makes it easier to stomach the loss of Marvin Harrison Jr.

I actually project the Buckeyes to improve on both sides of the ball in 2024. Despite all the success a season ago, Ohio State surprisingly finished with a negative turnover margin, forcing under one takeaway per game. Year-to-year, that statistic tends to fluctuate, and with a roster as talented as Ohio State, I’d say the Buckeyes are due for positive regression.

Schedule-wise, OSU should easily start the year 4-0 and in my eyes have only three potential trip-up games (I feel confident in the Buckeyes at home against Iowa): at No. 3 Oregon, at No. 8 Penn State and vs. No. 9 Michigan. While I don’t love that two of these three are on the road, I believe in Ohio State’s talent over Oregon’s, Ryan Day is undefeated against James Franklin and Michigan has to come to Columbus without the core responsible for its 2023 success. Not to mention, Day is a perfect 40-0 in conference play against all teams that are not the Wolverines.

Northwestern Wildcats: 4.5 wins (-122)

Homer bias? Maybe, but this line just seems egregiously low to me. Northwestern did not lose enough talent to justify a three-win drop-off from a 7-5 regular season mark in 2023. And those losses are largely made up for in new talent and coaching improvements. As long as Northwestern’s offensive line is passable, this jumps out as one of the best bets on the board.

Although I just mentioned that turnovers are not a sticky statistic (and Northwestern seems almost guaranteed to fall back to Earth from their ridiculous +1.1 turnover margin/game pace in 2023), the Wildcats seem incredibly likely to make major jumps in rushing efficiency (averaged just 2.8 yards per rush, 121st in the country), sack rate (126th) and, crucially, fourth-down conversion percentage (23.08%, 130th).

Looking at the schedule, only the matchups with Michigan and Ohio State seem unattainable. NU’s first five games of the season are at home versus Miami (OH), Duke, Eastern Illinois, and away at Washington and Indiana. I think all five of those are super winnable, but let’s play it safe and call that 3-2. From there, the ‘Cats need just two more wins to hit the over and have matchups against Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois, all of which Northwestern defeated a season ago, and Maryland and Iowa. None of these are obvious gimmes, but with a strong defense and methodical style of play, Northwestern will play in a lot of close games and seems more likely to finish with six wins than four.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 6.5 wins (+100)

My favorite sleeper team in the Big Ten this season is Greg Schiano and Rutgers. For starters, I’m a huge fan of Kyle Monangai and firmly believe he has a chance to lead the Big Ten in rushing. Greg Schiano’s defenses always play hard, and even if I wasn’t blown away by what quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis put on tape at Minnesota, his arrival to Piscataway will allow the offense to be functional in ways it simply could not achieve in 2023.

Last season, Rutgers’ passing offense was dreadful, completing just 46.9% of passes for under 135 yards per game. With Kaliakmanis, the offense should open up a little more, allowing Monangai to face lighter boxes at times. The new gunslinger should also hopefully help the Scarlet Knights improve on a 36.5% third-down conversion rate from a season ago.

Last year, Rutgers went 6-6 with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all on the schedule. This year, Rutgers faces none of those heavy hitters. Of the six Big Ten teams ranked in the preseason, Rutgers only faces one (No. 23 USC, who, I have concerns about — spoilers for below!). Every game on this schedule is winnable, with several of the more contentious bouts coming on home turf, including Washington, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Other overs I like: Iowa Hawkeyes (8.5 wins, +152), Oregon Ducks (10.5 wins, -118), Nebraska Cornhuskers (7.5 wins, -134)

Tempting Fades

Indiana Hoosiers: 5.5 wins (+124)

I think the Hoosiers took major steps in the right direction this offseason with the hiring of Curt Cignetti, but bowl eligibility feels like asking too much for a team that won a single game in conference play last year. I know Indiana brought in lots of new talent from Cignetti’s previous home at James Madison, as well as experienced quarterback Kurtis Rourke, but getting plus-value on the under is too good to pass up.

With a new coaching staff and so much roster turnover, I’m inclined to mostly throw out 2023 statistics, so I’ll focus more on the schedule — which is the one thing that scares me about this bet. With a non-conference slate of Florida International, Western Illinois and Charlotte, Indiana may have the most ready-made path to three wins in the Big Ten. Matchups with Ohio State and Michigan seem like uphill battles, but if Indiana is going to double its win total from 2023, playing a schedule including weaker conference foes like UCLA, Northwestern, Michigan State and Purdue is a good place to start. But even with all that, I’m fading year one of the new regime.

USC Trojans: 7.5 wins (+118)

I’ll actually start this one by addressing the counterargument. Yes, Lincoln Riley is a terrific offensive mind, and USC’s bugaboo has been its bottom-of-the-barrel defense. So with the removal of much-maligned defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, the unit SHOULD improve. But I’m going to push back on the assumption I see many making that this should automatically boost USC’s win total by a game or two.

I’m not breaking any news by pointing out that USC no longer has Caleb Williams under center, but as much as Riley’s offenses at Oklahoma and USC have always had great quarterbacks and been wildly efficient (and I like Miller Moss!), it feels like any improvements from the defense will be counterbalanced with regression from the offense. I just don’t see USC maintaining an offense with the second-highest points per game and points per play in the nation. Heck, this isn’t the Big 12 or Pac-12. We play defense here in the Big Ten.

And unlike Indiana, who benefits from a breezy non-conference schedule, USC gets No. 13 LSU and No. 7 Notre Dame among its extra games. And there are zero gimmes for USC in the nine conference games. On paper, the easiest matchup may be the rivalry bout with UCLA, which is a road clash with a team that has defeated the Trojans in two of the last three seasons. With questions remaining on defense, regression is likely to come on offense. And with a gauntlet of a schedule, fading USC seems like the move in 2024.

Minnesota Golden Gophers: 5.5 wins (-120)

Minnesota is a tough projection because they went 6-6 a season ago, but fell apart down the stretch. The Gophers are painfully due for improvements in some areas and drastic drop-offs in others. Starting with where Minnesota will get better in 2024: the passing offense with Max Brosmer is very likely to improve from the inefficient marks last season. Defensively, the Gophers can’t be much worse in the red zone than they were in 2023, and also look poised to get off the field more on third and fourth down.

Conversely, the offense is due for regression in some of those same areas. Notably, fourth-down conversion percent, which Minnesota ranked best in the nation last season, as well as red zone scoring percent, where the Gophers also ended in the top five. Although it’s a credit to P.J. Fleck and his staff, and generally can be repeated year-over-year, more likely than not the Gophers will also decline from their national-best three penalties per game for only 27.1 yards (second-best).

Looking at the schedule, Minnesota has a tough Week One matchup against UNC and plays four of the six ranked Big Ten teams. Of their remaining five Big Ten contests, four are on the road. Much like USC, it’s just difficult to pick out clear wins on the Gophers’ schedule.

Other unders I like: Purdue Boilermakers (4.5 wins, -178), UCLA Bruins (4.5 wins, +118)

Not touching it with a 10-foot pole

Michigan Wolverines: 8.5 wins

The reigning national champs can lose three games and still cash the over! Easy money, right? Not so fast. Aside from the obvious fact that Jim Harbaugh, Jesse Minter, J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum and a ton of pieces on defense are gone, there are a few reasons to stay away from betting Michigan in 2024.

Sherrone Moore certainly proved he can win last season with an impressive stint in relief for Harbaugh, but it’s unlikely Michigan can retain its dominance with so much staff and roster turnover. Even with some all-star individual talent, Michigan probably won’t finish as the top defense in points per game allowed and yards per game allowed. Michigan’s +19 turnover margin will be tough to repeat, especially with unproven talent at quarterback. That said, we all watched this team last year. I don’t want to bet against the Wolverines’ punch-you-in-the-mouth style, especially with the likes of Donovan Edwards, Will Campbell and Mason Graham on the roster.

A truly brutal schedule that puts Michigan toe-to-toe with the No. 2 (Ohio State), No. 3 (Oregon) and No. 4 (Texas) teams in the country officially clinches its status as a stayaway.

Washington Huskies: 6.5 wins

From one national champion participant to the other, a trend is emerging. I’m steering clear of talented teams with new coaches and new quarterbacks. Both Jedd Fisch and Will Rogers are pretty great, but even at a discounted price, Washington simply lost too much talent for me to feel good about any bets. Seven picks in the top 100 of the NFL Draft is both a testament to how good this team was in 2023 and how steep of an uphill battle they face in 2024.

Schedule-wise, Washington faces five of six ranked Big Ten teams, three of which are on the road. So why not bet the under? Well, the Huskies do have games against Weber State, Eastern Michigan, Washington State, UCLA, Indiana and Northwestern. They’ll be favored in all of those. Win that slate, and that’s already six of your seven wins. I’d rather save myself some stress and enjoy the Huskies from afar.

Other bets I’m staying away from: Illinois (5.5 wins), Maryland (6.5 wins), Michigan State (4.5 wins), Penn State (9.5 wins), Wisconsin (6.5 wins)