Xponential Fitness, Inc.’s (NYSE:XPOF) Popularity With Investors Under Threat As Stock Sinks 25%

Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE:XPOF) shares have retraced a considerable 25% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 36% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Xponential Fitness’ P/S ratio of 1.3x, since the median price-to-sales (or “P/S”) ratio for the Hospitality industry in the United States is also close to 1.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

View our latest analysis for Xponential Fitness

How Xponential Fitness Has Been Performing

Xponential Fitness could be doing better as it’s been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S ratio from falling. You’d really hope so, otherwise you’re paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

If you’d like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Xponential Fitness.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Xponential Fitness’ P/S ratio would be typical for a company that’s only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 15% gain to the company’s top line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 176% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the eleven analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 1.6% over the next year. With the industry predicted to deliver 13% growth, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Xponential Fitness is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Xponential Fitness’ plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn’t be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it’s quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Given that Xponential Fitness’ revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we’ve spotted 4 warning signs for Xponential Fitness you should be aware of, and 2 of them are potentially serious.

It’s important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.