Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/05 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Ravens/KC Chiefs Under 47.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

It’s here. Seemed like forever at times, but our long national nightmare of baseball season finally gives way to the NFL, and the league gets it started with a great one. I know everyone is excited to dive in and bet on NFL again, and that generally means the tendency is to bet the over, but I can’t get there on this one.

First of all, unders in Week 1 of the NFL season have been the dominant trend lately, hitting at 65% the past three seasons. Throw in the trend of primetime games going 79-48 to the under and the trends definitely support a lower-scoring game tonight.

I’m also seeing aspects of both teams that make me think we see the under cash here, despite both defenses losing key pieces and the Ravens having a new coordinator. The offenses are installing new pieces as well, especially in the KC passing game, with a lot of uncertainty on both offensive lines.

And the Ravens didn’t go get Derrick Henry so that Lamar Jackson could drop back 45 times a game, so expect them to utilize their new toy and not make the same mistakes they did in the AFC Championship. That should help slow this game down, keep the clock running, and hold it under the total.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115)

0.5 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-125)

0.25 Unit – Rashee Rice Alt Over 6.5 Receptions (+130)

0.5 Unit – Zay Flowers Over 55.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 40.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

The Mystics keep playing some good basketball, cashing their first half overs along the way, so I’m not stopping with them now. I think this is a good matchup for them as the Phoenix defense has not been sharp the past couple weeks, and plays right into Washington’s hand. The Mercury allow the most three-point attempts in the league, along with the second-most makes per game, so the high-volume shooting from deep that the Mystics rely on should have success. They’ve already exploited the Mercury defense in two meetings this season, putting up 46 and 40 first half points in the two meetings, so at this price I’ll expect them to get into the 40’s once again.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pablo Lopez Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 12:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This is some run that Pablo is on, and I want to back him to keep it going in this situation. Lopez has gone three starts and just over 20 innings of scoreless pitching, which is an incredible stretch no matter how you look at it. The fact that it’s come against some strong offenses makes it even more impressive, and he won’t have to worry about a strong offense today. The Rays are a bottom 2 or 3 team in all of baseball for average, scoring, and OPS against righties, along with 24th in weighted runs created. Their roster also has a cumulative .189 average and .453 OPS against Pablo for their careers, so at this price I’m glad to back him to hold Tampa under multiple runs today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +101.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.