Services PMI® at 51.5%; August 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 53.3%; New Orders Index at 53%; Employment Index at 50.2%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 49.6%

TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the second consecutive month in August, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The Services PMI^® registered 51.5 percent, indicating sector expansion in six of eight months in 2024. This month’s reading indicates sector expansion for the 48th time in 51 months.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In August, the Services PMI^® registered 51.5 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than July’s figure of 51.4 percent. The reading in August marked the sixth time the composite index has been in expansion territory in 2024. The Business Activity Index registered 53.3 percent in August, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 54.5 percent recorded in July and indicated continuing expansion after one month of contraction in June. The New Orders Index expanded to 53 percent in August, 0.6 percentage point higher than July’s figure of 52.4 percent. The Employment Index expanded for the third time in 2024; the reading of 50.2 percent is a 0.9-percentage point decrease compared to the 51.1 percent recorded in July.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49.6 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in July. The index remained in contraction territory for the second straight month — indicating faster supplier delivery performance — in August after two months in ‘slower’ territory. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 57.3 percent in August, a 0.3-percentage point increase from July’s reading of 57 percent. The Inventories Index returned to expansion territory in August after two consecutive months of contraction, registering 52.9 percent, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from July’s figure of 49.8 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (54.9 percent, down 8.3 percentage points from July’s reading of 63.2 percent) expanded for the 16th consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index returned to contraction territory for the second time in the last three months, registering 43.7 percent in August, a 6.9-percentage point decrease from the July reading of 50.6 percent.

“Ten industries reported growth in August. The Services PMI^® has expanded in 18 of the last 20 months dating back to January 2023, and the August reading is equal to the 51.5 percent index average for 2024.”

Miller continues, “The increase in the Services PMI^® in August is due to all directly factoring indexes (Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) with readings close to or above 50 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index was in mild contraction (faster) territory in August. For a second straight month, the slow growth indicated by the Services PMI^® reading was reinforced by panelists’ comments. Slow-to-moderate growth was cited across many industries, while ongoing high costs and interest-rate pressures were often mentioned as negatively impacting business performance and driving softness in sales and traffic. Although the Inventories Index increased by 3.1 percentage points into expansion territory in August, many respondents indicated their companies are still actively managing down their inventories.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 10 services industries reporting growth in August — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Educational Services; and Utilities. The seven industries reporting a decrease in the month of August — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Generally, business is good. However, there are concerns of slowing foot traffic at restaurants and other venues where our products are sold.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• “Housing market continues to be dampened by higher borrowing costs. All segments of the industry are affected. Single-family homes for sale, build for rent, and multifamily units are all feeling the effects.” [Construction]
• “Activity is increasing.” [Finance & Insurance]
• “Business continues to be strong.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “Overall business is improving.” [Information]
• “Hiring of employees, contractors and consultants continues to decline as companies look to control costs during a period of economic and political uncertainty. Employee layoffs continue across a broad range of companies and industries.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• “Business has slowed, and it is harder than ever to find talent, but less jobs available as well.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Up in business and activity.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
• “Steady interest rates are impacting investment in nonregulated business silos.” [Utilities]
• “High food costs are impacting customer demand, and weak sales performance has resulted in negative growth overall. Business activity is stable, and supplier costs are generally flat.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Construction Contractors (8); Construction Trades; Electrical Equipment; Food (2); Labor (45); Labor — Construction (2); Lumber — Softwood; and Maintenance Supplies.

Commodities Down in Price
Copper Wire; Diesel Fuel; and Steel Products (4).

Commodities in Short Supply
Appliances; Electrical Equipment (3); Labor — Construction; and Transformers (3).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

AUGUST 2024 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In August, the Services PMI^® registered 51.5 percent, a 0.1-percentage point increase compared to the July reading of 51.4 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the August Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is expanding for the second straight month. Miller says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for August (51.5 percent) corresponds to a 0.8-percentage point increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 53.3 percent in August, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 54.5 percent recorded in July, a second month of expansion after contracting in June for the first time since May 2020. The Business Activity Index has been in expansion territory for 50 of the 51 months since its coronavirus pandemic lows. Comments from respondents include: “Warehouse pallet throughput activity and customer physical occupancy is up month over month” and “While our production levels are roughly the same, our sales volume has softened.”

The nine industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of August — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; and Public Administration. The four industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of August are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 53 percent in August, 0.6 percentage point higher than the reading of 52.4 percent registered in July. The index was in expansion for the second consecutive month after contracting in June for just the second time since May 2020. Comments from respondents include: “Busy season” and “New service lines opening, with new sites of care coming online.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of August — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector indicated growth in August for the second consecutive month and for the third time in 2024. The Employment Index registered 50.2 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from the July figure of 51.1 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Filling vacancies and replacing contractors across all disciplines” and “Hiring freeze in place; not backfilling positions as people are (laid off), retire, or leave our organization.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in employment in August — listed in order — are: Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Utilities. The seven industries reporting a decrease in employment in August, listed in order, are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Educational Services; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade.

Supplier Deliveries
In August, the Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster performance for the second consecutive month. The index registered 49.6 percent, up 2 percentage points from the 47.6 percent recorded in July. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Original equipment manufacturer (OEM) is in much better inventory and distribution shape” and “Shortage of truck drivers.”

The four industries reporting slower deliveries in August are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Utilities; and Transportation & Warehousing. The four industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of August are: Wholesale Trade; Information; Construction; and Finance & Insurance. Ten industries reported no change in in supplier deliveries in August.

Inventories
The Inventories Index returned to expansion territory after two consecutive months of contraction. The reading of 52.9 percent was a 3.1-percentage point increase compared to the 49.8 percent reported in July. Of the total respondents in August, 49 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Business activity is up, and we are adding new products” and “Right-sizing to pre-COVID-19 supply chain conditions.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in August — in the following order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Information; Retail Trade; Construction; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in inventories in August are: Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Seven industries reported no change in inventories.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in August for the 87th consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 57.3 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the 57 percent recorded in July. The August reading is the 26th in a row near or below 70 percent (including 15 of the last 16 months at or below 60 percent), following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent from September 2021 to June 2022.

Thirteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of August, in the following order: Construction; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The three industries reporting a decrease in prices paid in August are: Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index contracted in August for the third time in 2024, and the second time in the last three months. The reading of 43.7 percent is 6.9 percentage points lower than the 50.6 percent reported in July and the lowest reading since August 2023, when the index registered 41.8 percent. Of the total respondents in August, 40 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “With the same production levels and softer sales, our backlog has shrunk somewhat” and “Canceled orders.”

The six industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in August — in the following order — are: Educational Services; Retail Trade; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The eight industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in August — in the following order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Wholesale Trade.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies increased in August for the fourth consecutive month after contracting in April and expanding for 11 of the 12 months before that, with the lone contraction in October 2023. The New Export Orders Index registered 50.9 percent, a 7.6-percentage point decrease from the 58.5 percent reported in July. Of the total respondents in August, 70 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S. Respondent comments include: “Spending cutbacks by customers” and “Recovery outside of the U.S. has seen greater improvement.”

The four industries reporting an increase in new export orders in August are: Mining; Other Services; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in August are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Twelve industries reported no change in new export orders in August.

Imports
The Imports Index expanded for the second consecutive month in August, registering 50.3 percent, 3 percentage points lower than the 53.3 percent reported in July. The index has indicated expansion in 19 of the last 24 months, with contractions in June and May of this year, March 2023 and December 2023, and an “unchanged” status (a reading of 50 percent) in May 2023. Sixty-five percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials. Respondent comments include: “We are monitoring our inventories closely. The need for replacement product is not as great as in previous months” and “Increasing life-cycle cost spend with multiyear purchases.”

The three industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of August are: Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Information. The three industries reporting a decrease in imports in August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. Twelve industries reported no change in imports in August.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the 16th consecutive month in August after one month of contraction in April 2023, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction from August to November 2022. The index registered 54.9 percent, an 8.3-percentage point decrease from July’s figure of 63.2 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The 11 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in August — listed in order — are: Mining; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Other Services; Retail Trade; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The two industries reporting feeling that their inventories were too low in August are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Public Administration.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2024.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM^® Report On Business^®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January, the report is released on the fourth business day of the month.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring September 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, October 3, 2024.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management