Mattel CEO eyes the crucial holiday shopping season amid flagging toy demand

Toy shoppers won’t be too far removed from election fatigue come the start of the crucial holiday season.

And how that impacts demand for everything from Lego building sets to Barbie dolls is a great unknown that has top industry execs taking a cautious approach to their fourth quarter outlooks.

“We expect the industry to still decline but less than what we thought at the start of the year overall,” Mattel (MAT) chairman and CEO Ynon Kreiz told Yahoo Finance at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference on Monday (video above).

“The industry is doing better than initially projected,” Kreiz added. “The fundamentals of the toy industry are very healthy.”

The toy industry has shown some respectable trends this year on the backs of Lego building sets, Hot Wheels cars, and Fisher-Price toys from Mattel.

But to say the business is rip-roaring ahead of the holidays would be a stretch.

Sales of toys for the G12 countries fell 1% to $24.5 billion from January to June 2024, according to data from industry research firm Circana. The average selling price for toys was relatively unchanged at $11.57.

Only 4 of the 11 toy “super-categories” experienced sales growth from the G12 countries, underscoring the pressure the category is under.

One bright spot: Sales of building sets rose 20% in the first half of the year.

Toy sales have “stabilized,” said Circana global toys industry adviser Frederique Tutt.

“As we move through the second half of the year and prepare for the holiday season, we expect to see more new products being launched that will deliver excitement for children and adults alike. The industry will continue to gain traction in product categories including building sets, plush, robotic interactive pets, and collectibles,” Tutt added.

Mattel’s second quarter sales fell 1% year over over year to $1.1 billion. Adjusted earnings improved to $0.19 from $0.10 a year ago as Mattel continued to benefit from cost cuts and share repurchases.

For the full year, Mattel sees sales relatively unchanged at $5.4 billion. Adjusted earnings are pegged to increase 14% year over year at the mid-point of Mattel’s guidance of $1.35 to $1.45 a share.

“While we are encouraged by the first half performance, we continue to believe the upcoming year will be a challenging operating environment for the toy space. Mattel is lapping difficult comparisons from last year’s Barbie movie with a lackluster movie slate ahead,” Jefferies analyst Kylie Cohu said in a client note.

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Cohu rates Mattel shares at a Hold.

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