UFC 306 gambling preview: Will Sean O’Malley retain his title against Merab Dvalishvili?

“The greatest live sporting event of all-time” takes place this Saturday when UFC 306 goes down in Sphere in Las Vegas. Headlined by a bantamweight title fight between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili, “Riyadh Season Noche UFC” also features a women’s flyweight championship trilogy between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, and eight other pivotal matchups. Who walks away as winners on Saturday and how can you profit? Let’s dive in.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Sean O’Malley (-146)

I’ve got a full breakdown of this matchup coming, so read that for a deeper dive into my thought on the main event this weekend, but it boils down to one very simple idea: Dvalishvili cannot finish this fight and O’Malley can. 25 minutes is a long time to fight perfectly and that’s what Dvalishvili has ahead of him, where for O’Malley, it only takes one good shot. If Dvalishvili comes out and gets 100 takedowns, then he will win, but I think O’Malley’s ability to control range will help him avoid most takedowns and he’s so far ahead on the feet that I like his chances to retain the title.

Brian Ortega (+146)

Ortega takes on Diego Lopes in the featured fight of the evening and it’s a testament to how popular Lopes is that he’s a considerable favorite over the more proven Ortega. And I intend to take advantage of that.

Personally, I dislike Ortega’s game (specifically his complete disdain for defense) but the man is undeniably effective. Against all but the absolute top tier of competition, Ortega has found a way to win, and Lopes has not. That’s not to say he can’t, but it’s unproven thus far. Give me plus money on the more proven winner.

Esteban Ribovics (+182)

Ribovics fights Daniel Zellhuber, and this one is going to be a banger. Both are young, high-action fighters who are going to get in there and chuck ‘em. Zellhuber does have the advantage of being a bigger person, but Ribovics is tough as nails and comes to scrap and I think he’s got a much better chance to get his hand raised than the odds indicate.

Norma Dumont (-108)

Dumont takes on Irene Aldana in the prelim main event, and I think she’s in good shape to get a win. Like the main event, this is a striker vs. grappler matchup, and while on paper Aldana is a good defensive wrestler, I think that’s a bit misleading. Amanda Nunes, Macy Chiasson, and Holly Holm all had great success scoring takedowns on Aldana and Dumont should have the same success, leading her to a straightforward win.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Prop Bets

Alexa Grasso by Points (+200)

That’s right, I, the driver of the “Bullet” train, am jumping off the Shevchenko bandwagon. It hurts me to do so, but at this point, it must be done. Grasso and Shevchenko have now fought each other for over 40 minutes, and while Shevchenko has won much of that time, I personally believe she lost both fights overall.

On top of that, Shevchenko isn’t getting better. She’s pushing 37 and has been fighting for 20 years. Conversely, Grasso is still improving. So if a better version of Shevchenko couldn’t beat a worse version of Grasso, why would she win this time around? It hurts my soul to say but it’s Grasso’s time right now and Shevchenko should move up to 135.

That being said, I’d be surprised if she got a finish. Shevchenko could always try another ill-fated head-and-arm throw and get choked out again, but after twice failing in the same way, I suspect this time she won’t, meaning we’re in for a decision win for Grasso.

Wrap Up

Wow. It’s been a hot minute since we last did one of these! Last time we were here it was UFC Vegas 96 and we did at least walk away with a winning week. Can we do it again? Let’s hope.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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