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When to book holiday travel this fall: ‘That window of low prices is brief,’ economist says

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When to book holiday travel this fall: ‘That window of low prices is brief,’ economist says

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If you want — or need — to travel this holiday season, start planning now because the ideal time to book Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s travel is fast approaching. 

“The most important thing is for travelers to continue to think about planning now and booking in October,” said Hayley Berg, lead economist at travel site Hopper. “That window of low prices is brief, but it can really pay off.”

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But travelers who miss that window might have a last resort: so-called Travel Tuesday, which is the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday. 

That day, “pretty much the whole travel industry goes on sale,” said Berg.

Whenever you decide to confirm your reservations, keep in mind that traveling during the holiday season can be fraught with complications, said Sally French, a travel expert at NerdWallet.

“The holidays are a difficult time to travel because not only are you dealing with what’s likely to be tougher holiday weather, but also working with bigger crowds,” said French.

Here’s how to make sure you’re getting a good value. 

When prices will be at their lowest

Prices for holiday travel are slightly higher compared to this time last year, said Berg.

On average, round-trip flights for Thanksgiving — defined as departures from Nov. 24 to 28 — currently cost about $298, according to Hopper’s 2024 Holiday Travel Outlook report. That is up 10% from a year ago and 3% from pre-pandemic levels, the travel site found. 

Prices are expected to fall by about $40 on average until they reach their lowest level in early October, when prices will likely be in line with 2023 levels, the report noted.

Similarly, airfare for Christmas trips — defined as the week of Dec. 21 to 25 — are hovering at an average $406 per round-trip booking, up 4% from a year ago and 13% from pre-pandemic, per Hopper.

However, prices are expected to fall by about $80 from current levels until they reach their lowest point in October, according to the report.

“It’s really important for travelers to be thinking about booking their travel now, so that when October rolls around, they’re ready,” said Berg. 

If you are “super last-minute and want to book something for Christmas or New Year’s,” according to Berg, “one good day to bookmark” is Dec. 3, or this year’s Travel Tuesday. 

“You might get lucky and … swing something last minute,” said Berg, as the deals that day can include major discounts on hotel stays, airfare and rental cars. 

How to avoid holiday the travel ‘domino effect’

During the holiday season, disruptions are more likely to happen because airlines and airports are operating more flights than usual, and bigger crowds can lead to “domino effect” issues, experts say.

An example: if one flight is 15 minutes late pulling away from a gate, that can affect the flow of air traffic for an entire terminal, said Berg.

But the “biggest risks” are usually inclement weather and technical malfunctions, she said.

You might get lucky and … swing something last minute.

Hayley Berg

Lead economist at Hopper

Here are four key things to consider:

  • Avoid flying on peak days. For example, around Thanksgiving, avoid the Sundays before and after the holiday, experts say. In the past years, the Sunday after Thanksgiving set records as the busiest day to fly, or the number of travelers passing through TSA checkpoints, said French.
  • Take the first flight of the day. Try to book one of the first flights of the day because you avoid being affected by delays and cancellations, said Berg. You’re two times more likely to be affected by flight delays or cancellations after 8 a.m., she said.
  • Allow time for delays and cancellations. If it’s critical for you to be at your destination, “bake in extra time to get there,” and travel a few days in advance, said French. “If it’s really important that you’re there for actual Christmas dinner, fly in a few days early,” she said.
  • Broaden your search. It can be helpful to know what other airports are nearby, said French. If you know of other airports, it may help you find more affordable options. It could end up being a longer drive to get to your destination, but it can make sense if it’s critical you get there, she said.
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