Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/17 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Mystics +10 @ NY Liberty (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV

It’s certainly possible the Liberty are out for blood in the final two games of the season this week to get back on track after Sunday’s loss to the Lynx, and to secure the top playoff seed. But laying double digits against the Mystics is just too much, as has been proven all season long in this matchup. Washington might be 0-3 against the Liberty, but they’ve gotten the money every time and it’s because they’ve faced inflated spreads. Let’s not forget that the Mystics are fighting for their playoff lives here, so I think they give New York another tough game tonight and keep it within single digits.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Washington Mystics/NY Liberty Over 160.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

While the Mystics have been consistent in covering against the Liberty, these teams have also been consistent in getting into high-scoring affairs. All three meetings have cleared this total fairly easily, with 171.7 points on average. The Mystics can’t stop New York and their elite offense, but they can keep up with them, and I see that as the case again tonight. And if the Liberty decide to roll Washington tonight, that kind of blowout is another path to the over here and creates insurance against the Mystics failing to cover.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 37.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Consistency is a consistent theme in my handicap of this game, and another example is in this number. The Mystics have been able to have their usual big first halves against New York in the three meetings, easily clearing this total each time with 44.3 points on average. With this game in DC, the Mystics are even more likely to have one of their patented big first halves, and this number is the lowest I’ve seen for them in months so I’m jumping in.

MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers/Miami Marlins Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on SportsNet LA

With the MLB regular season winding down, I’m looking to back heavily supported trends like overs in Miami. Things have been wild at loanDepot Park this year, with Marlins home games hitting the over at a 71.8% clip and having the second-highest plus/minus to the total of any stadium. With the two starting pitchers tonight, I see another fairly easy one even if this is a higher number than usual for a Marlins game.

With Bobby Miller starting for LA, this could get wild right away as he’s been atrocious all season. Everyone eats against Miller, especially on the road where his 7 starts have seen him compile an 11.12 ERA, a 2.17 WHIP, and .362 opponent on-base average, so a Marlins lineup that’s dangerous at the top should easily get to him. And with a fully healthy Dodgers lineup facing converted reliever Darren McCaughan, it’s fairly easy to assume they’ll contribute how they usually do, and I think that sends this game well over the number.

MLB (0.75 Unit) KC Royals First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

The Royals took a tough loss last night that probably knocks them out of the AL Central chase, so my expectation is that they come back with a vengeance today. They’re one of the highest-scoring teams in the league for home games, and have scored 6.4 runs per game against Detroit this season, but I’m looking to the first 5 innings for a few reasons.

First is that the Royals crush Tigers starter Casey Mize, with their bats having a composite .439 average and 1.099 OPS against the Detroit righty. I think they’re able to jump on him early, and I also want to avoid having to need runs against a Tigers bullpen that has been elite for weeks. It’s also a question of price, as this first 5 number has better juice than the full-game team total, so I’ll count on a hot start from the KC bats tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Salvador Perez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Perez hasn’t gone over this number for a few games, and actually isn’t having a great September by his standards. But this should be an opportunity for him to turn it all around against a pitcher he owns. He is the Royals hitter with the most experience against Casey Mize, and it’s been good experience as he has a .478 average and 1.196 OPS for his career. Salvy is going to break out of this mini-slump eventually, and I think it’ll be tonight given this matchup.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +96.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.