The trusted source for air travel demand updates | ACI World

Montreal, 19 September 2024 – Airports Council International (ACI) World releases its second bi-annual Advisory Bulletin for air travel demand updates, pulling data from over 2,700 airports in more than 180 countries and territories worldwide.

Passenger traffic 2023–2024

Total passenger traffic for 2023 was confirmed this summer at 8.7 billion, nearly matching ACI World’s February 2024 forecast with 99.99% accuracy.

This volume milestone stands in contrasts with pre-pandemic expectations. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global passenger volume was expected to reach 10.5 billion in 2024, or 124% of the 2019 level. The current projection for 2024 estimates global passenger volume at approximately 9.5 billion, representing 104% of the 2019 level and a 10% year-on-year (YoY) growth from 2023.

ACI World confirms that by June 2024 year-to-date (YTD), total passenger traffic increased by 11% year-on-year (YoY), reaching 102% of the June 2019 YTD level. While the domestic market experienced a slower growth rate of 6% YoY, the international market drove recovery with a 17% YoY increase.

In 2023, the international passenger market showed significant recovery, with continued growth expected in 2024. By the end of 2024, international passenger traffic is projected to reach 4.1 billion, accounting for 43% of total passengers, while domestic passenger traffic is expected to reach 5.4 billion, making up 57% of the total.

Source: ACI World

Medium-term outlook

Despite positive macroeconomic developments, such as easing inflationary pressures, the medium-to-long-term outlook has become more cautious due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, unresolved labor market bottlenecks, and aircraft delivery constraints. While the gradual recovery of international passengers and the return to profitability for airlines signal positive momentum, travel costs remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies continues to grow.

* Estimated passenger traffic volumes are based on a broad range of inputs provided by ACI Regional offices and industry experts.

** The projected baseline (pre-COVID-19) scenario is based on a standard time-series forecast generated using the most up-to-date and complete historical data to Jun 2024. It also makes use of adjusted World Airport Traffic Forecasts (WATF) 2019–2040 and considers the latest insights provided by ACI Regional offices and other inputs.

Source: ACI World

Source: ACI World

Regional highlights

• Passenger traffic in Africa is projected to reach 244 million passengers in 2024, surpassing 2019 levels at 106%. However, there is some uncertainty that certain markets may experience a potential shortfall in domestic passenger traffic during the first half of 2024.

• The Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead in year-on-year (YoY) growth in 2024, with a 13% increase, reaching 3.4 billion passengers by year-end. While a few markets in the first half of 2024 may not fully recover to their 2019 levels—such as Thailand (85%), Indonesia (90%), Malaysia (88%), and New Zealand (89%)—the region’s growth is largely driven by China (99%) and India (112%). However, the Ukraine conflict and subsequent airspace closures have negatively impacted routes between Europe and Asia, leading to reduced flight schedules between the two regions.

• In Europe, passenger traffic in 2024 is expected to reach approximately 2.5 billion, or 102% of the 2019 level. However, large domestic markets in Western and Northern Europe have yet to fully recover to 2019 levels and may not do so soon.

• The Latin America-Caribbean region is estimated to reach 773 million passengers by the end of 2024, nearly 112% of its 2019 level. The region has shown a strong recovery since the early phase of the pandemic, but its elevated baseline may lead to a slowdown due to strong traffic in recent years.

• The Middle East is projected to reach 449 million passengers in 2024, representing 110% of its 2019 level. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the region has seen continuous growth in passenger numbers and is expected to maintain steady growth in the coming year.

• The North America region is estimated to reach 2.2 billion passengers in 2024, or 107% of the 2019 level, with a strong YoY growth of 7%.

Source: ACI World

Annex: 

About ACI

Airports Council International (ACI), the trade association of the world’s airports, is a federated organization comprising ACI World, ACI Africa, ACI Asia-Pacific, ACI EUROPE, ACI Latin America and the Caribbean, and ACI North America. In representing the best interests of airports during key phases of policy development, ACI makes a significant contribution toward ensuring a global air transport system that is safe, secure, efficient, and environmentally sustainable. As of May 2024, ACI serves 814 members, operating 2110 airports in 169 countries.