Washington Dulles International Airport is expected to end 2024 with about one-fifth the air traffic to China it had in 2019, according to new projections.
That marks the one less-than-bright spot in an overall healthy rebound in international travel since COVID restrictions were eased and passengers again started taking to the skies.
“We are in a very strong position,” said Paul Bobson, who heads the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority’s efforts to recruit and retain air-carrier service at Dulles and Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.
The number of scheduled airline seats from Dulles to destinations in China for the full year represents only 21 percent of 2019 levels, slightly lower than but generally in line with the rate of 26 percent nationwide.
(Figures come from Innovata Airline schedules via Diio MI Online Portal, and were reported to members of the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority on Sept. 18.)
Service to all other international corridors is running above pre-pandemic totals at Dulles: Scheduled seats to Europe are at 119 percent of 2019 levels; to Latin America, 169 percent; to the Middle East, 121 percent; to Africa, 141 percent; and to Canada, which also includes flights from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, 109 percent. In every case, the figures for local airports are higher than those nationally.
Several top leaders of the airports authority spent part of the summer at various Asian cities, cementing existing bonds and promoting Dulles to prospective new service providers.
While the growth has been “truly impressive,” the airports authority must meet that growth with ongoing infrastructure improvements, said authority board member William Sudow (Virginia).
“I’m very concerned we’re going to experience adverse customer experiences,” said Sudow, who on Sept. 18 was attending his last meeting as a board member.
Authority president/CEO Jack Potter acknowledged some lag in addressing the growth. “We’ve recovered [from the pandemic era] much faster than anyone thought we would,” he said.
Newly ratified pacts with the airlines that use the airports will free up about $10 billion in capital funding, with about two-thirds of that to be used at Dulles and the remainder at National.
“We have many efforts under way. We’re going to be building, building, building,” Potter said.
For Asia excluding China, Dulles is anticipated to have 101 percent of the seat capacity it had in 2019, compared to 96 percent for airports nationwide.
Among individual destinations at Dulles, Tokyo is at 95 percent of pre-pandemic levels, Seoul at 100 percent and, fueled by an increase in flights from Air India, at 125 percent at Dehli.
“It’s incredibly important to have this service,” Bobson said of flights to India.
Service to China is not simply impacted by limitations imposed by that country’s government, but also by the difficulty posed for U.S. carriers that are no longer allowed to overfly Russia, often the quickest and most fuel-efficient routing option.
Other challenges for Asian-based airlines? Many “are still recovering from their [COVID-era] staffing and crew challenges,” Bobson said.
Another challenge for international service: The current strength of the U.S. dollar makes foreign travel cheaper for Americans, but may cause some living elsewhere to opt out of a trip to the U.S. because of higher costs.
Bobson told authority board members to consider the wooing of additional airline service as a marathon, not a sprint.
“It takes a lot to come together – years and years,” he said.
Authority board member Walter Tejada (Virginia), whose tenure on the body is expiring in several months, praised the efforts.
“It’s never too early to plan for the future,” he said.
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