Big Dog’s Big 5 NFL bets: Week 3

“The Big Dog” Mitch Vosburg

Editor’s note: The following column is a loose transcription from a segment of the latest episode of Press Breakers. Listen to the latest podcast episode on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube today.

Week 2 was, yeah, that happened. I went 2-3 against the spread and 3-2 moneyline, bringing my totals in both categories to 5-5. The goal is to be above .500, so we’re moving at a good pace.

Here’s what I like entering Week 3.

All odds are provided by ESPN Bet. Please gamble responsibly.

San Francisco 49ers @ LA Rams

Line: 49ers -7

Over/Under: 45.5

Moneylines: 49ers -290, Rams +240

Big Dog’s play: San Francisco -7

Explanation: I love this play for a few reasons. First, 49ers head coach Kyle Shannahan has owned Rams head coach Sean McVay. More importantly, the Rams are decimated with injuries. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are out. Two starters on the offensive line and secondary are on injured reserve. The Rams are relying on nine defensive starters on rookie contracts and three rookies to hold the fort down. 49ers win, big

49ers 37, Rams 13

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: Buccaneers -7

Over/Under: 40.5

Moneylines: Buccaneers -290, Broncos +240

Big Dog’s play: Tampa Bay -7

Explanation: Tampa Bay, along with the rest of the NFC South division, looks much better than a year ago. Baker Mayfield is showing us all why he went first overall in 2018. Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix, and quite frankly the rest of the team, is still trying to piece things together. Sure, seven points is a lot, but I’ll take it in a Tampa Bay two-possession win

Buccaneers 27, Broncos 17

Mortal Lock Parlay

Leg No. 1

LA Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Line: Steelers -2

Over/Under: 35.5

Moneylines: Steelers -140, Chargers +120

The play: Los Angeles +2

Explanation: These teams have similar identities, but there’s one major difference. The Steelers are still trying to figure out their offensive tackles. The Chargers are set, and have both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. That’s the difference in a game that will see every possession matter.

Chargers 16, Steelers 13

Leg No. 2

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts

Line: Colts -1

Over/Under: 43.5

Moneylines: Indianapolis -115, Chicago -105

The play: Under 43.5

Explanation: I’ll give credit to the Bears, their defense is legit. The offense, well, need work. Only one offensive touchdown through two games is far from ideal, but there’s a lot of new pieces here.

Then there’s the Colts, who were absolutely embarrassed by the Packers thanks to a lackluster run defense. The main play here is the under 43.5 points. Offense won’t be the show stealer here. But, since the focus is on spreads and moneyline, Bears pull out the win.

Chicago 17, Indianapolis 10

Leg No. 3

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys

Line: Ravens -1

Over/Under: 47.5

Moneylines: Ravens -115, Cowboys -105

The play: Ravens -1

Explanation: Who had the Ravens starting 0-2 in their 2024 NFL season bingo card? Not me. I also didn’t have Dallas get embarrassed last week (the polar opposite, actually). It’s going to happen again.

Lamar Jackson is 20-3 all-time against the NFC with a completion percentage near 64% for 4,277 yards with 34 touchdown to eight interceptions.

Now add Derrick Henry to the equation against a defense that 190 rushing yards to the Saints last week.

Raven avoid falling to 0-3, Cowboys are left scratching their heads.

Baltimore 38, Dallas 20