Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/21 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Arkansas/Auburn Over 56 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

I like this total here as long as it’s at or below the key number of 56 points. These are two underrated offenses, ranked 13th and 24th in success rate, squaring off against two defenses that I simply don’t trust. Auburn rebounded from an ugly Week 2 loss by putting 45 points on a bad New Mexico defense, and they can continue having success against an Arkansas unit that has only stopped Pine Bluff’s offense.

That’s not going to get it done against SEC offensive talent, but the Razorbacks should be able to score easily tonight as well. Auburn struggled at times last week against a mobile quarterback, and in comes an upgraded version with Taylen Green today. Arkansas has looked much better offensively in three games than they have in a couple years thanks to Green’s dual-threat ability, and it should lead to enough scoring here to push this over the total.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Youngstown State/Pittsburgh Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on ACC Extra

This Pittsburgh offense is fun, with an up-tempo and pass-happy attack led by Eli Holstein who’s off to a great start. The Panthers have torched two bad defenses in their home games, and they’ll see one today that simply is not a fair fight. Youngstown State from the FCS has faced three fellow FCS opponents this season and allowed 25.7 PPG, so the high-powered Panthers should make this about as ugly as it gets for the Penguin defense.

But Pitt has given up plenty of points this season as well despite a soft schedule, most notably allowing feeble Kent State to put up 24 in the opener. If Youngstown gets anywhere near that level of production this game will fly over, but I think a big day out of the Panthers offense takes care of the majority of what’s needed to clear this number.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Miami @ South Florida +17 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Miami has gotten off to a fantastic start and has serious CFP aspirations. But they still have Mario Cristobal as their head coach, and that means things are going to get nervy for the Canes at some point. I think it comes today, as they have to face a tough team that can hang with just about anyone.

South Florida really had Alabama nervous for the second straight year, this time in Tuscaloosa, before some late-game craziness made the margin look bigger than reality. With the electric Byrum Brown at quarterback leading an excellent run game, the Bulls will control the ball and give Miami the first true test they’ve had this season. Getting 17 points on top of home field where the crowd will be nuts, I’m not trusting Cristobal and an overvalued Canes team to run out a good and motivated opponent on the road.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Toledo/Western Kentucky Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I was bullish on this Western Kentucky offense maintaining it’s high-octane form this season, and adding a new element with TJ Finley’s mobility. After a slow start that’s finally beginning to show, and I think this is a spot to actually buy somewhat low on the offensive potential. The Hilltoppers tore up Middle Tennessee last week for 49 points, and can do the same thing to Toledo who has yet to face an elite offense.

The Rockets meanwhile are on fire, having just put 41 points on an SEC defense in a road game, which is very impressive no matter how you look at it. Tucker Gleason is the kind of accurate pocket passer with just enough mobility that can go shot-for-shot with WKU’s attack, and I think that creates a shootout here.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Wyoming/North Texas Over 55.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This total is sitting in a great spot just below the key number of 56, and it’s all because of Wyoming’s record. The Cowboys have looked terrible on offense, no doubt about it, but they’ve played three opponents with stingy defenses and ball-control offenses. That changes today, as they’ll face a North Texas team that is all gas and no brakes.

The Mean Green want to throw it all over the yard, and do just that with Chandler Morris. They’ve gotten into shootouts of 87 and 90 total points with their two FBS opponents so far, and should exploit a Wyoming defense that will melt in the Texas heat. UNT really can’t stop much, and don’t care to given their style of play, making this a good spot for Wyoming to exceed their offensive expectations. With an advantageous number based on priors that go out the window tonight, look for these teams to easily clear this total.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Ole Miss First Half Team Total Over 30.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on SEC Network

Ole Miss should be able to name their score in this game against a bad defense. Georgia Southern has been better on that side of the ball the past two weeks against awful competition, but still has the shame of Boise dropping 56 on them in the opener. It’s important to note that the Eagles have not played a power conference opponent, and today will see maybe the most dynamic offense in the country.

The Rebels have feasted on the weak opponents that have visited Oxford, dropping 52 and 31 points before halftime. I think they do it again here in their final tune-up before SEC play, and probably want to get starters out of the game fairly early in preparation for Kentucky next week. That should see them run it up early and clear this first half number.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Fresno State/New Mexico Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:30 PM CT on truTV

I’m riding New Mexico overs until the wheels fall off, as this defense can’t stop a nosebleed. They’ve allowed 61 and 45 points to their two FBS opponents and even let FCS Montana State hang 35 on them in the opener, resulting in a 3-0 over record with 76.7 points on average. With an up-tempo Fresno State offense coming to town, I don’t see them slowing the Bulldogs down tonight. What I do see however is a duel between two excellent dual-threat quarterbacks in Mikey Keene and Devon Dampier, who should trade shots all game long. Fresno will not be shy about throwing early and often, so this game should see a fast start that sparks a shootout.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +94.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.