The Boeing strike is so big it could dent the jobs report

As the machinist strike at Boeing continues into its second week, some analysts suspect the impact might show up in some unexpected places. Researchers at Oxford Economics believe the labor action could reduce the Labor Department’s monthly payrolls count by as many as 50,000 jobs.

“One clear downside risk is that the strike activity at Boeing (BA) could knock the employment data off course,” a recent report from the organization says.

The dent would be formed by two sources. On the one hand, the striking workers are 30,000 in number. On the other hand, furloughed workers might bring the total up by another 20,000. By a quirk of the way the jobs report is compiled, the strike isn’t likely to affect the September numbers released in October, but if it drags on long enough it could show up in the November report.

“Close to 30,000 machinists walked out on September 12, the Thursday of the reference week for September payrolls,” Oxford’s economists wrote. “That means those workers will still be paid for at least part of the pay period and therefore count as employed, though average hours worked could take a hit.”

The machinists went on strike earlier this month after voting down a union contract that would have given those represented by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers a 25% raise. They had been seeking a 40% bump during negotiations. In a strike update posted on Sunday, their union implored them to stay in front of Boeing’s gates to make sure their voices are heard.

“A picket line isn’t just a symbol; it’s a powerful way to draw attention to our cause and inform the public why we are striking,” the union said. “In real-time, it demonstrates to the company that we are prepared to stand together until we get the contract we deserve. When we hold the line, we show the world, the media, our neighbors, and all workers that we are willing to take action for a better contract, one we deserve.”