Is MWC dissolution coming? UNLV now holds keys to future in fight between Pac-12 and Mountain West

In a matter of hours on Monday, during one of the wildest days in college sports realignment history, the Mountain West went from surviving with its eight football members together in a binding agreement to now on the brink of complete dissolution.

The Pac-12’s rebuilding effort could, ultimately, result in the destruction of its sister conference if UNLV accepts its offer to join. Such a move could trigger a domino effect that may lead to the Mountain West dissolving itself, presumably including the elimination of exit fees and other penalties for those members departing the conference.

Sources with knowledge of the Mountain West policies spoke to Yahoo Sports about the possibility, of which many officials in both the MWC and Pac-12 are aware of.

As Tuesday arrives, attention is on a decision from UNLV, a school thrust into the heart of this realignment madness — the potential linchpin in a fight between the Pac-12 and Mountain West.

UNLV’s decision looms as significant for more than one reason.

The Rebels, for one, would be the new Pac-12’s eighth commitment, the number that the league needs to meet NCAA and CFP minimum requirements. They would join Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Fresno State and Utah State in what is a conglomeration of the top half of the old Mountain West and the bottom of the old Pac-12.

UNLV’s departure would do something else: It would decrease the Mountain West membership to six football members and five full members (Hawaii is a partial member only competing in football).

UNLV’s exit would likely send Air Force into more serious negotiations with the American Athletic Conference. AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti has been in discussion with the school now for more than a week about acquiring, at the very least, the Air Force football program as a partial member to join military brethren Navy and Army.

If it agrees to leave, Air Force would be the seventh member to exit the conference. According to Mountain West bylaws, support from nine of the 12 football members is necessary to dissolve the conference.

In short, two of the five remaining Mountain West members — Wyoming, Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada and New Mexico — would have to vote in support of dissolution.

The question looms: Would the Pac-12 invite two of them to avoid what amounts to more than $120 million in exit and penalty fees?

“That’s the play, honestly,” says one athletic director with knowledge of the situation.

Such a move is bold. A dissolution of a league means shuttering the conference office, the elimination of dozens of staff members and the disappearance of the league brand itself.

Most expected the Big Ten and Big 12’s poaching of the Pac-12 to result in the full destruction of that brand and conference as an entity. Instead, that very conference is doing to the Mountain West what the bigger leagues tried to do to it.

There are plenty more hurdles to cross before it comes to that, but it remains more than just an outside possibility, according to those who have discussed the matter.

The first hurdle is a decision from UNLV, which, in many respects, controls the future of the Mountain West and expansion decisions of the Pac-12.

Late in the day Monday, the Rebels expressed their commitment to the Mountain West, agreeing to terms that bound all remaining eight universities and secured the league’s future. However, the agreement required the support of eight members to be a legally binding document (a reminder: the FBS minimum is eight football-playing members).

In a stunning revelation, the Mountain West Conference office received signed agreements from seven of the eight schools, including UNLV, according to those familiar with the matter.

“Utah State was waiting for UNLV to sign before signing,” said a Mountain West official. “When UNLV signed, Utah State did not.”

Utah State’s decision to leave the conference effectively voids the deal without an eighth member school. Any expansion intended for the Mountain West to rebuild to eight members would likely necessitate a new agreement.

In short, the Aggies’ decision may set off a chain of events that leads to the full destruction of their old conference. Or, UNLV officials could decide to remain with the Mountain West and accept a more than $10 million signing bonus, much of which is derived from said exit fees to be paid to the MWC from those departing schools.

UNLV’s decision comes with political strings. While it is not bound to its in-state rival, Nevada-Reno, separating from them could get messy.

The Nevada System of Higher Education and its board of regents governs both schools and must approve decisions related to conference affiliation. The current governor of the state, Joe Lombardo, is a graduate of UNLV. The president of University of Nevada-Reno, Brian Sandoval, is a two-term governor of the state who holds respect and power among the regents.

A decision from UNLV is expected soon, as early as Tuesday.

While Utah State’s decision was not unexpected — USU received the Pac-12 expansion presentation last week — the Aggies’ move capped a whirlwind day that began with AAC members Memphis, Tulane and South Florida receiving term sheets from the Pac-12.

A courtship that began more than a week ago finally culminated in a more official proposal. AAC school administrators balked at the terms: projected annual revenue figures or $10-15 million, a five-year grant of rights through 2030-31 and little financial assistance ($2.5 million per school) with an AAC exit fee that may eclipse $20 million.

Their decision sent the Pac-12 back West to again raid its little sister — a move that could ultimately lead to the real destruction of a conference.