Presidents Cup betting guide: 5 picks our gambling expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Presidents Cup, which gets underway Thursday in Montreal, Canada.

It was on more than a few occasions this past golf season that we referenced players possibly having additional motivational factors leading into a particular golf tournament — and in many of those cases, we were talking about wanting to play well enough to qualify for the Presidents Cup or to catch the eye of their respective team captain.

The rosters for both the International and United States sides were completed via the captain’s picks three weeks ago and now, here we are, ready for the bi-annual competition to begin at Royal Montreal Golf Club in Montreal, Canada, the oldest golf course in North America.

Royal Montreal was the site of the 2007 President’s Cup and held the RBC Canadian Open in 2014. Canadian Mike Weir captains the International side while Jim Furyk does the honors for the U.S. Many of the players we noted throughout the season as having a little something extra to play for were Canadians, wanting to represent the International team playing in their home country. Three Canadians are on Weir’s team this week: Corey Conners, Mackenzie Hughes, and Taylor Pendrith.

I have been wanting to find a way to bet the heavily Canadian-influenced International side for a little while now, with the “home field advantage” feeling like it might carry some extra weight this week. But the fact is, I haven’t been able to get there. The United States team has each of its 12 players ranking in the top 25 in the OWGR. The Internationals have only four of its 12 ranking as such and maybe the oddsmakers are leaning on the Canadian influence as well because, frankly, the -250 price on the United States seems cheap.

This will be the 15th edition of the Presidents Cup. The U.S. has dominated the competition, winning the last nine in a row with an overall record of 12-1-1. The golf course is a par 70 that measures just under 7,300 yards. Whether it’s a Ryder Cup or a Presidents Cup, it seems the American opponent is always trying to negate the power off the tee — a characteristic that so many U.S. teams seem to have. I’ve heard that Weir is aiming for a similar golf course set-up, one that favors driving accuracy with fairways that are bordered by very thick, penal rough.

If you look at the leaderboard of the 2014 RBC Canadian Open, Tim Clark was your winner. Jim Furyk was runner-up. Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, and Graeme McDowell also finished in the top-10. If that lineup doesn’t scream “driving accuracy” I don’t know what does. The problem for the Internationals here is you have Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, and Brian Harman on the U.S. side, all ranking inside the top 20 on Tour in Driving Accuracy. And Furyk’s experience and success here probably doesn’t hurt either. It is worth noting that there has been a lot of rain in Montreal recently and the forecast is calling for more on Wednesday and Thursday. A wet, soft, golf course will keep more balls in the fairway and lessen the demand for precision accuracy off the tee.

I have narrowed it down to three skill sets that I believe will ultimately be the most important on this course and that is Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach (Iron play), and Scrambling. Again, the United States is pretty dominant over the Internationals in each of these categories. So, how are we going to bet this competition? I don’t mind laying -250 on the U.S. side but I’m going to see if I can thread the needle a bit and get a better price.

United States to Win the President’s Cup by 4-6 points (+340)

With a total of 30 matches scheduled to take place, this margin of victory wager affords us the possibilities of 17-13 in favor of the U.S., 18-12, or 17.5 to 12.5 for your winning score.

Top United States Scorer: Collin Morikawa (+650)

We’ve been talking about Morikawa quite a bit down the stretch of this 2024 golf season because he has certainly been the best player in the world to have not recorded a win this year. If there is anyone on the U.S. side that you would think would be motivated to make some noise here, you would think it would be Morikawa. Obviously, Scheffler and Schauffele have accomplished so much already this season — Morikawa makes some sense to be one that still has some added hunger for success this week. He also happens to be second on Tour in Driving Accuracy, 10th in Scrambling, and has gained strokes on the field on approach in nearly every tournament he’s played going back to April when his season really took off at the Masters.

Honorable Mention: Sam Burns (+700), because he finished the season playing so well in his last four starts.

Top International Scorer: Si Woo Kim (+800)

Hideki Matsuyama is the top player on the International side and comes off of a recent win in Memphis at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. But I like going down the board a little further to a player wjo might be a better fit for this golf course and should see quite a bit of playing time. That is part of the handicap too: Who is going to even play in enough matches to possibly get to the top spot in points? This will be Kim’s third Presidents Cup, so Weir knows that he has the experience. Overall, Kim’s Presidents Cup record is 4-3-0. He ranks 13th in Driving Accuracy on Tour, is 18th for SG: Approach, and 22nd in Scrambling.

Honorable Mention: Taylor Pendrith (+1400), because he has been so good recently throughout what has been his best-ever season. He may emerge as the local hero this week.

Players to fade: Mackenzie Hughes, Wyndham Clark, Min Woo Lee. Outside of McKenzie Hughes’ short game (Scrambling) these players rank at or near the bottom in our key statistics this week.