Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/29 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Denver Broncos @ NY Jets -1.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Oh look, a bad team catching a touchdown in the NFL in the year 2024, wonder what could happen. Obviously anything when the NFL is acting like this, but the game I’m seeing here has a significant unquantifiable element that has me loving this teaser leg. There’s a short list of people in this world who like Aaron Rodgers and who Aaron Rodgers actually likes, but Nathaniel Hackett is right up near the top.

Hackett’s former employer and replacement are on the other sideline today, and I’m betting Rodgers makes them pay for a lot of the commentary surrounding Hackett’s dismissal in Denver. And it’s a tough spot for what is still a bad Broncos team despite winning last week, having to stay on the road and deal with the letdown of that shocking win. The Jets finally got extra rest for this game, and Rodgers doesn’t lose to rookie quarterbacks, especially not when his feelings have been hurt.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans +0.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I think the Jaguars might be just plain bad. Monday night’s demolition at the hands of Buffalo was a sign of a deflated and disinterested team, so I’m not buying too much into their potential for a big bounce back today. Especially not when Houston is looking for a bounce back of their own after the Vikings took them apart last week.

I’m losing faith in Trevor Lawrence overall, and he’s never been a good quarterback on the road with an 8-19 straight up record. He’s been a big part of the problem, but the defense showed they’re mostly incompetent against the pass, and here comes one of the best passing games in the league. The Jags will get a win eventually but not today, and being able to tease this to reflect that makes it a good bet in my mind. Ok NFL, go ahead, do your thing.

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Cincinnati Bengals/Carolina Panthers Over 40: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This is a tipping point game for Cincinnati, as a win keeps a sliver of hope alive but a loss could send the whole organization into a tailspin. So I think the offense shows up like it did on Monday night, as having Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins in the lineup significantly raises the scoring floor for the Bengals. But this defense is a massive liability, and a rejuvenated Panthers offense will have plenty of success today. Andy Dalton in a revenge game, and Dave Cannales being able to scheme offense with a competent quarterback, will score plenty of points again and push this over the adjusted total.

Pittsburgh Steelers/Indianapolis Colts Under 47: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

This total has come crashing down, but I’m able to move it well above the opening number here and I don’t see how these teams get there. The Steelers are going to want to continue to run the ball, and they should have no trouble against a Colts team that hasn’t shown any ability to stop it. And the Colts offense is not going to find success against a Mike Tomlin defense, as he torments inexperienced quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson, whose inaccuracy will make things even worse. The Steelers are allowing 8.7 PPG this season thanks to facing bad quarterback play, and that will keep this game under the adjusted total.

Washington Commanders/Arizona Cardinals Over 42: 3:05 PM CT on FOX

At some point the Washington offense will slow down – they’ll need their punter eventually. But this is a great team to face in a natural let-down spot after Monday’s big win combined with a short week and more travel. Arizona continues to be my vote as worst defense in the league, a couple of strange games the past two weeks notwithstanding. But the Commanders are right up there with them, so this should be a game where stops are in short supply. With two dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks facing off, Kliff Kingsbury looking to make a statement, and a bad defense on the field at all times, this game should have no trouble reaching the adjusted total.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Aaron Jones Over 85.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Aaron Jones Anytime TD (+120)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Reed Over 59.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+110)

0.5 Unit – Allen Lazard Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Chuba Hubbard Over 80.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Diontae Johnson Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)

0.5 Unit – Xavier Legette Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 105.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Chris Godwin Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Chris Godwin Alt Over 6.5 Receptions (+110)

1 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Caleb Williams Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Robert Woods Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jauan Jennings Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+165)

1 Unit – Kyler Murray Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – James Conner Over 88.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Brian Robinson Jr Over 86.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 3.5 Receptions (+110)

0.5 Unit – Terry McLaurin Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – JK Dobbins Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – James Cook Over 77.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zay Flowers Over 55.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Anytime TD (+130)

0.25 Unit – James Cook Anytime TD (+135)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +86.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.