Israel Prepares for ‘Limited’ Ground Incursion Into Lebanon

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Israeli forces preparing to invade southern Lebanon, snap elections in Japan, and China’s record-breaking stock growth.

Imminent Incursion

Israeli and U.S. officials indicated on Monday that Israel appears ready to mount an imminent, “limited” ground invasion of southern Lebanon, with some saying it could start as early as today. On Monday, Israel’s military declared part of the country’s north near the border with Lebanon as a “closed military zone.”

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Israeli forces preparing to invade southern Lebanon, snap elections in Japan, and China’s record-breaking stock growth.

Imminent Incursion

Israeli and U.S. officials indicated on Monday that Israel appears ready to mount an imminent, “limited” ground invasion of southern Lebanon, with some saying it could start as early as today. On Monday, Israel’s military declared part of the country’s north near the border with Lebanon as a “closed military zone.”

While initial plans suggested a major incursion, officials report that Israel has scaled down its strategy to center on destroying Hezbollah rocket launchers and weapons caches as well as other militant infrastructure in order to allow Israelis living in northern Israel to return to their homes. “The understanding is that they are not going to do another Gaza,” a source familiar with the operation told the Washington Post.

“We held talks with the Israelis regarding the possibility of ground action. So far, they have told us that these are limited operations that will focus on Hezbollah’s infrastructure near the border,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Monday.

Acting Hezbollah chief Naim Kassem vowed on Monday to continue fighting Israel even though “the battle could be long.” This was the first time a senior figure of the militant group has addressed the public since Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed by an Israeli airstrike on Friday. Kassem is a founding member of the militant group and will remain in charge until Hezbollah’s leadership elects a successor, who will likely be Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah who oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs.

Kassem said Hezbollah’s fighters were ready to counter an Israeli incursion, denying reports that Israel’s attacks have significantly hampered the group’s fighting power or weapons arsenal. In the past 10 days, Israeli strikes have killed Nasrallah and at least six of his top commanders and officials; Kassem said those leaders were replaced and that substitutes are already lined up if something were to happen to them. More than 1,000 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon in the past two weeks, according to Lebanon’s Public Health Ministry. Of those, nearly a quarter have been women and children.

The Israeli military said it has hit thousands of militant targets across Lebanon and parts of Syria, confirming on Monday that it had also killed Hamas’s top commander in Lebanon, Fatah Sharif. The operation targeting Sharif was the first known airstrike within Beirut’s city limits since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Another suspected Israeli airstrike in central Beirut on Monday killed three Palestinian militants with the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.

“There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Monday in comments directed at Iran, which backs both Hezbollah and Hamas. “There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country,” he added. Also on Monday, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Tehran would not send forces to Lebanon or Gaza to help confront Israel, adding that Hamas and Hezbollah “have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression.”

Hezbollah has significantly increased its attacks on Israel in the past week, reaching several hundred strikes a day. However, most launches have been intercepted or have fallen into open areas. The Israeli military said 35 projectiles crossed the border into Israel on Monday, though none inflicted major damage or casualties.

As many as 100,000 people have fled Lebanon for Syria since the fighting first escalated, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi posted on X on Monday. On Sunday, the European Commission announced an additional $11.2 million in humanitarian aid for the Lebanese people. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its attached destroyers to remain in the region and is sending additional air-support capabilities as well.

Miller said on Monday that the Biden administration continues to pursue a proposal for a 21-day cease-fire in Lebanon, but he reiterated that the United States supports Israel’s right to defend itself against a terrorist organization and return its citizens to their homes.

Today’s Most Read

The World This Week

Tuesday, Oct. 1: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosts Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Washington.

The Japanese House of Representatives formally appoints Shigeru Ishiba to be the country’s new prime minister, Claudia Sheinbaum assumes the Mexican presidency, and former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte becomes NATO’s secretary-general.

Jammu and Kashmir hold the third phase of legislative elections.

Wednesday, Oct. 2: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hosts Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in separate meetings in Brussels.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe kicks off its three-day parliamentary assembly in Dublin.

Thursday, Oct. 3: G-7 interior ministers hold a two-day meeting in Italy.

Sunday, Oct. 6: Tunisia holds a presidential election.

Kazakhstan holds a referendum on whether to build a nuclear power plant.

Bosnia and Herzegovina holds local elections.

Brazil holds municipal elections.

What We’re Following

Snap elections. Incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Monday called for snap elections to be held on Oct. 27 to decide which party will control parliament’s lower house. “It is important for the new administration to be judged by the people as soon as possible,” he said. On Friday, Ishiba was elected as the new leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in one of the country’s closest leadership races to date. He will be formally appointed on Tuesday. The LDP has held nearly unbroken power in Japan since the end of World War II.

Ishiba replaces Fumio Kishida as the leader of the world’s fourth-largest economy and has expressed support for the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to help curb inflation. The Nikkei 225 index fell 4.8 percent on Monday, which some attributed to a market correction after previous expectations that LDP candidate Sanae Takaichi, who advocated for maintaining low interest rates, would be elected over Ishiba.

Among Ishiba’s other top campaign issues, he has proposed an Asian version of NATO and suggested a more equal Japan-U.S. security alliance.

Optimistic outlook. Chinese stocks on Monday marked their single-biggest gains in 16 years. The Shanghai Composite Index surged 8.06 percent in its best day since September 2008, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased 10.9 percent its best day since April 1996. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also advanced 2.4 percent on Monday to hit around 24 percent for the year, surpassing Taiwan to become Asia’s best-performing stock market.

Stock gains first surged last week, when Beijing announced new stimulus measures to bolster the country’s weak property market. These included lower borrowing costs on roughly $5.3 trillion in mortgages, at least $113 billion in liquidity support, and other banking policies. Experts argue that these actions are some of China’s strongest attempts to address the COVID-19 pandemic’s devastating economic impact on the country.

Far-right gains. Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) on Sunday secured the country’s first major far-right parliamentary win since the end of World War II. With about 29 percent of the vote, the Freedom Party does not have a majority in the lower house of parliament—but now, neither does the ruling Austrian People’s Party and center-left Social Democrats coalition.

FPO party leader and former Interior Minister Herbert Kickl wants to replace Karl Nehammer as chancellor. But several of Austria’s other parties refused on Monday to form a coalition with him. This could leave Austria with a hung government at a time when the far right is gaining popularity across Europe.

Founded in the 1950s by a former Nazi lawmaker, the FPO wants to restrict migration and asylum claims, end sanctions against Russia, and leave the German-led missile defense European Sky Shield Initiative. Much of its “Austria first” policies have adopted Nazi language, such as Kickl saying he wants to be a “Volkskanzler,” a term that Nazis used for Adolf Hitler. Right-wing leaders in Germany and the Netherlands congratulated Kickl on his win.

Odds and Ends

Instead of the usual London traffic, sheep crossed the River Thames on Sunday to honor a centuries-old herding tradition. More than 1,000 Brits given the honorary title of Freeman of the City of London donned black hats and red cloaks to shepherd livestock over Southwark Bridge. Among those participating included actor Damian Lewis, who said he was pleased to be part of “this eccentric, very British day.”