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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 5 Fantasy Football

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Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 5 Fantasy Football

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 5 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

It’s wild this game is a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. This is a marquee matchup between two AFC title contenders.

The Bills are coming off their worst offensive showing of the year. The Ravens put together a good approach to slowing down Buffalo. Getting an early lead is essential, so the Bills can’t lean on you with their explosive power-run game but the defensive approach is the key. Baltimore played a ton of man coverage on the perimeter to glove up the Bills’ lesser outside receivers and then glove up the interior with tight zones to take away the tight ends, slot receivers and backs in the pass game.

Houston has been a top-12 pass defense by success rate and EPA allowed. Their edge rushers are a strong duo and the defense is 10th in pressure rate overall. They also have a star cornerback in Derek Stingley Jr. who can lock up those outside receivers. According to Fantasy Points Data, Houston allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points per dropback in man coverage. Don’t look for Keon Coleman or Mac Hollins to get rolling against this secondary outside. Meanwhile, slot receiver Khalil Shakir is dealing with an injury and hasn’t practiced this week. Buffalo needs to get Curtis Samuel involved.

This does look like the type of defensive unit that could slow down the Bills offense if they can get their own lead on that side of the ball.

The Texans offense has star power in the passing game but with the way Bobby Slowik wants to call plays, their lack of a run game has become a huge problem. The Texans’ early down offense is sinking the whole unit. Overall, the Texans are 28th in offensive EPA per play and success rate on early downs (first and second). If you take out Week 1 (the only game Joe Mixon started and finished) they rank 32nd in rushing EPA and success rate overall. There is a big gap between them and the 31st-ranked team, Las Vegas. It doesn’t help that they’re the most penalized team in the league (40) and have lost the second-most yards to penalty (-171).

A lot of that has been due to issues up front on the offensive line.

The lack of a strong run game and offensive line mistakes have consistently put the Texans in poor down-and-distance situations. Luckily, Houston has a superstar quarterback and an alpha wide receiver who is dominating against the type of coverage that is giving other offenses fits on late downs.

Collins might be the alpha of this receiver room but given the amount of zone coverage the Bills play, and for obvious narrative reasons, Stefon Diggs could pile up catches underneath. If Houston is going to build the lead they need to get the Bills offense out of its comfort zone, based on what we’ve seen so far, it will have to come from the passing game.

The more I look at this game on paper, the harder it is to imagine this is anything but another massive workload day for Derrick Henry. The Ravens’ run game got off to a slow start in the first two games but is peaking right now. Much of that is thanks to a formation Todd Monken and co. have used to blend the rushing styles of Henry and Lamar Jackson:

With the Henry addition now working toward its best possible outcome, the Ravens have fallen to 32nd in neutral pass rate in Weeks 3 and 4. Going against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st in rushing success rate allowed, it’s hard to see that changing. That makes the margin for error quite thin for a guy like Zay Flowers and anyone else in the passing game. Flowers is boom/bust and likely a guy who needs to score a touchdown in order to make it work for your fantasy WR3 spot.

The Bengals offense looks like it is finding its footing. With Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase both in the fold, we’ve seen Joe Burrow post his best yards per attempt figures in Weeks 3 and 4. The Ravens’ defense is coming off its best game but covering these two guys on the outside is a much bigger ask than what they faced in Buffalo’s wideouts last week.

The biggest story for fantasy football, though, is the Bengals backfield.

Coming out of a breakout game in Week 4, Chase Brown’s usage trending up. He played a season-high 40% of the snaps and owned 52% of the backfield carries. Most notably, he scored on two goal-to-goal carries, which you’d assume would be Zack Moss’ standalone gig. Brown totaled 92 yards on 17 touches. Brown has some juice and saw encouraging results on both outside runs and in-between-the-tackles work. Moss is a good veteran back who will remain involved, at the very least, and could always just hang onto the lead role.

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For now, Moss and Brown are volatile RB3 or flex plays when they’re both on the field. This isn’t a great matchup as it is against Baltimore. So this storyline is more for season-long possibilities than Week 5 options. Still, Brown getting more involved is good for the offense as a whole. They need more paths to explosive plays beyond Chase and Higgins and the ground game is a strong place to get it.

After four weeks, the Rams are 1-3, barely hanging on in the face of many significant injuries. Matthew Stafford is fighting and battling with a battered supporting cast, but it hasn’t been enough to keep the Rams in the win column consistently.

Beyond Stafford, the two bright spots have been Kyren Williams and Tutu Atwell. Williams has continued to produce and rarely leaves the field. He’s coming off his best rushing day of the season. The Packers have been much more vulnerable against the pass than the run, though. They rank top-10 in rushing success rate allowed but 28th in dropback success rate allowed. The Packers play single-high at the 11th-highest rate in the league. If Stafford can have time, he should be able to push the ball in the vertical area. Atwell has been his guy in this area on motion plays. He has led the team in yards over the last two weeks.

The Packers are dealing with issues in the wide receiver room. Christian Watson is facing a multi-week injury absence, and Romeo Doubs is questionable due to a personal matter. We know Jayden Reed is in line for a huge workload as the WR1 on this team but look for Dontayvion Wicks to once again draw a high target total.

Wicks is coming off a 13-target game against the Vikings and, despite his drops, there is a reason Jordan Love consistently looks for him when he’s on the field; Wicks is a high-end route runner at all three levels.

Wicks is a multi-positional threat who can win in various ways, ideal for modern NFL offenses. The Rams are 29th in dropback success rate allowed. In this matchup, with his talent and the opportunity ahead of him, he’s someone who is at least a fantasy WR3 with upside in Week 4.

The Rams also struggle to stop the run this year. This could be the week Josh Jacobs hits big in fantasy. Josh Jacobs is seventh in both carries and yards among running backs this year. Yet, he’s RB27 in fantasy. He just hasn’t found the end zone. That’s all it is, there’s no bigger meaning beyond his fantasy scoring or reason to panic.

The touchdowns will come with Jordan Love back under center and getting comfortable. It could be as soon as this week against a vulnerable Rams stop unit.

Most important Cowboys storyline: CeeDee Lamb’s alignment will be a storyline to track. The Cowboys love the matchup advantage he provides in the slot. He’s run 54.5% of his routes from the inside this season. With Brandin Cooks out for this game and likely longer, the Cowboys will be going deep into the roster to find another outside receiver alongside Jalen Tolbert when Lamb moves inside in 11-personnel. While Lamb can win outside and would almost certainly give them better reps than whoever else is on the depth chart, putting him there would get him in the crosshairs of Joey Porter Jr. One of the better young shadow corners in the league, Porter has only gone inside on 2% of his snaps this year, per Pro Football Focus. Using Lamb inside is the best pathway for him to reach the highest ceiling in Week 4.

Most important Steelers storyline: Justin Fields is now the QB6 on the season. We saw him playing his best football in a loss to the Colts in Week 4. Fields took a season-high 42 dropbacks while trying to come back in the contest. It was his best day as a runner with 10 carries, 55 yards and a pair of scores. Four of his carries were scrambles, and he amassed 16 yards and scored both touchdowns. That means that the designed runs were quite efficient, which wasn’t the case in the first three games. It was in a negative game script but this was the first time we saw Fields let off his leash as a passer.

The results were overall good as his 7.95 adjusted net yards per attempt was seventh-best among quarterbacks in Week 4. When Fields is rolling, it’s great news for George Pickens, who was third among pass catchers with 158 air yards. Obviously, this was in a losing effort but given the way their run game has left much to be desired this year, one has to wonder if the Steelers continue to let Fields do more as he continues to establish himself as their starter. It makes the offense more dynamic, there’s no denying that.

Most important Jets storyline: Garrett Wilson’s connection and his role in the Jets’ offense has been scrutinized this week. He has a 25% target share this season but the results have been middling so far with fewer than 65 yards in every game. Few teams have had a more brutal defensive schedule at the start of this season. It really doesn’t let up until Week 9 when they face the Cardinals. The Jets are doing the right things to move Wilson around the formation but he and Aaron Rodgers just haven’t been on the same page when it comes to downfield routes. Given Minnesota’s edge-rush pressure and suffocating zone coverage on the back end, the Jets should be trying to get the ball in Wilson’s hands on layup routes. Overall, given Wilson’s talent, the Jets’ clear intent to get him the ball and the juice left in Rodgers’ arm, Wilson can still be a great fantasy option even if he doesn’t return Round 1 value.

Most important Vikings storyline: Sam Darnold’s revenge game.

Allow me to pluck the low-hanging fruit. Darnold seems like an overall pleasant guy with a good perspective so I’m sure he doesn’t feel a great deal of bitterness toward the Jets but you have to imagine he still wants to get up for this one. Beyond the emotion, this is likely the biggest defensive test for Darnold and the Vikings offense. New York has had some issues dealing with the run but still ranks second in dropback success rate allowed. Darnold has shown well when working to secondary options like Jalen Nailor and Jordan Addison this season. If he’s able to stay comfortable in the face of New York’s interior pressure and make good decisions against a good secondary, Minnesota should carry this day.

Most important Saints storyline: Alvin Kamara averaged over 5.5 yards per carry in Weeks 1 and 2. In the last two weeks, he’s carried the rock 45 times to the tune of 3.7 yards per carry. That’s not a coincidence. New Orleans suffered multiple injuries to the interior of their offensive line in Week 3 and that’s shown in their ability to establish the run. The pre-snap motion to gain leverage in creating explosive plays and the deep play-action shots that have made the passing game so dangerous in New Orleans have gained the headlines. However, it’s a meat-and-potatoes efficient run game that was setting so many of the big plays up in the first two weeks. The Saints losing that edge, if that’s what happens, would be a big deal to the rest of their offensive projections.

Most important Chiefs storyline: Do we see Xavier Worthy run some different routes in the wake of Rashee Rice’s injury? The vast majority of Worthy’s route tree as a rookie has been comprised of downfield patterns. His primary role has been to stretch the defense to open things up underneath while being available for the occasional deep shot.

His role is going to have to be used in different ways to fill the target vacuum left behind by Rice, who was placed on IR this week. Worthy isn’t able to stand up to physical press man coverage on the outside but Rice’s absence will open up opportunities for more slot reps. I’d expect him to run at least 40% of his routes from the inside. I’m not sure who on this roster will be the primary outside receivers but making Worthy’s alignment work is the first priority.

Most important Panthers storyline: The Andy Dalton to Diontae Johnson connection has brought what looked like a floundering fantasy draft pick back to life. The stats back it up, with 27 targets for Johnson in Dalton’s two starts, but the quarterback’s faith in his receiver is easy to see, given how he talks to him.

But Johnson may not be the only fantasy viable option in Carolina’s receiver room, as rookie Xavier Legette had a breakout game in Week 4.

Legette was targeted on 29% of his routes run in Week 5 against the Bengals. The varied presnap alignment and his overall route deployment were exactly what I imagined for him in a best-case role while scouting him as a prospect. That was encouraging when projecting the rest of his rookie campaign. Of course, for this week, the Bears defense provides a much stiffer test than the Bengals did. Still, Legette should be in the mix for flex spots during the bye-week gauntlet ahead.

Most important Bears storyline: The Bears have many problems on offense. One of the bigger issues prior to last week was the lack of the running game. On the season, Chicago ranks 31st in rushing success rate. However, we got an eruption game in the box score from D’Andre Swift with 16 carries for 93 yards and a score to go along with 72 yards on seven targets. If Swift can come even close to that level of production in the coming weeks, it will be a huge help to Caleb Williams and an offense that’s rarely been in positive down and distance this season. The Panthers don’t offer much resistance on the interior defensive line against the run and just lost Shaq Thompson for the year. This is another spot for Swift to prove his reliability — which I’m overall still skeptical of given the body of work.

Most important Browns storyline: With Nick Chubb nearing a return, it’s worth speculating what type of offense Cleveland will roll out once he’s back on the field. The Browns have tried to make the offense more Deshaun Watson-centric this season but it’s been an abject disaster. Watson leads the NFL in dropbacks out of empty this year and he’s averaged a mere 0.81 adjusted net yards per attempt on those plays. Only Daniel Jones comes in lower among quarterbacks with 20-plus dropbacks out of empty. Watson’s 3.12 adjusted net yards per attempt on plays with three-plus receivers on the field is the lowest among quarterbacks to play four games this year.

You can engage in circular debates about whether his objectively poor play or a struggling offensive line is the main culprit, but the bottom line is that the plays do not work. All of that styling is pretty antithetical to Kevin Stefanski’s roots as a play-caller and several years into this experiment, it’s hard to argue that catering to Watson’s preferences has born any fruit.

Who knows where Chubb will be physically once he’s on the active roster but the type of heavy personnel, under center and condensed approach where Chubb is at the center of the attack has at least brought positive results to the Browns in the past.

Most important Commanders storyline: Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense will get their biggest test of the season on Sunday. The offense has been humming the last two weeks and Daniel, Kliff Kingsbury and all the players involved deserve their flowers. That can be true while still acknowledging that they’ve played two of the softest defenses in the NFL in Cincinnati and Arizona. Week 5 brings a matchup with a Browns defense that isn’t quite to the level they held in 2023 but is still far superior to those two foes. The Browns play a ton of cover-one, single-high defense and heat you up with blitzes. Cleveland’s 31.6% blitz rate ranks seventh in the league. Daniels will be great for fantasy because of his rushing but it’s worth noting that he had his least inspiring day as a passer in Week 1 against a blitz-heavy Todd Bowles Bucs’ defense. The protection plan under Kingsbury and the play of rookie left tackle Brandon Coleman against Myles Garrett will be under the microscope.

Most important Cardinals storyline: If it feels like the Cardinals have been hit or miss as games have worn on, you’re right. Arizona has been excellent on their opening script plays but has faded afterward.

This has been especially notable in Marvin Harrison Jr.’s production. The rookie has been targeted on 33% of his routes in the first half of games in Weeks 2 to 4, catching 10 passes for 184 yards and four touchdowns. He has just 55 yards on four catches in the second half. The scripted plays for Harrison have been excellent; he and Murray just have to work on their timing and chemistry on some of the other spots. The fact that Harrison is the WR9 on the season, despite a one-catch debut and there still clearly being meat left on the bone, is quite exciting.

Most important 49ers storyline: It needs to be said: Brock Purdy is playing really well right now and doing it in ways that most wouldn’t expect. Purdy ranks No. 1 in Next Gen Stats completion percentage over expected and is third in EPA per dropback. He is one of the most efficient passers in the NFL. That’s not unexpected but what’s different from the perception of Purdy is how he’s operating. Again, per NGS, the 49ers quarterback is fifth in deep-throw rate, second in air yards per attempt (10.7) and he’s throwing the second-highest rate of his passes into tight windows. He is operating this way despite no one from his Avengers supporting cast giving him great play for all four games.

Purdy is balling out right now and, once everyone is healthy and fully locked in, that raises the ceiling of this unit.

One reason to maybe watch: Ja’Lynn Polk quietly took a step forward last week. He ran a route on 82.1% of the dropbacks and led the team with 102 air yards. It was fascinating to see the Patriots offense give Polk some downfield contested targets, which seems to indicate their faith in him as a ball-winner. Polk likely needs Drake Maye and the theoretical upside his skill set brings to the table to truly hit a high ceiling as a fantasy player. Yet, we’re always on the lookout for late-season surging rookies and Polk continuing to earn playing time will increase his chances of being that guy.

One reason to maybe watch: The Colts’ passing game will be in the spotlight in this game. For one, it looks like the Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor in this game, so more of the burden will be on the aerial attack. We also aren’t sure if Anthony Richardson will start in this game or if Joe Flacco will get another moment to shine. Flacco would likely be a significant boost to the outlook of underneath and intermediate route runners like Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs than a physically compromised Richardson. Either quarterback will get a great matchup in this game, though. The Jaguars play man coverage at the highest rate in the league at 46.3%, per Fantasy Points Data, and it’s not gone well for them. Jacksonville ranks 30th in EPA per dropback allowed.

One reason to maybe watch: It appears that Davante Adams has played his last snap as a member of the Las Vegas Raiders. Adams is still a great receiver in his own right but his biggest impact is felt in how teams play coverage on the Raiders. Las Vegas has seen Cover 2 at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL because teams do not want to leave Adams on an island with corners.

That allowed Brock Bowers to feast on quick targets in Weeks 1 to 3 with Adams in the fold. Bowers was targeted on 15% of his routes in Week 4, per Fantasy Points Data, and I don’t view that as a coincidence. The Broncos defense has been an extremely underrated unit through four weeks of the season and how they go about defending an Adams-less Raiders will be fascinating. He just makes everything so much easier on the rest of the skill-position players.

One reason to maybe watch: The Giants are the ones sinking this game down to this level, as they’re unlikely to have Malik Nabers in the lineup this week due to a concussion. So all eyes here are on the Seahawks. In his first game back from injury, Kenneth Walker was absolutely electric and operated as the team’s clear lead back. Per Next Gen Stats, Walker was most efficient rushing from under center, finishing with 55 yards on six carries and 2 TDs (9.2 yards per carry) compared to 25 yards on six carries and a TD on shotgun runs.

One interesting note is that the Seahawks are not an under-center passing team. Geno Smith has just 25 yards on under-center play. He has the second-lowest adjusted net yards per attempt on under-center plays among quarterbacks with four games played this year. Oil-and-water effects on run and pass games within an offense always have me a bit spooked from a tendency perspective, but for now, this is just a trend to monitor.

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