Our AP top 25 ballot: Where Alabama, Tennessee fell and Texas A&M rose

Saturday was a reminder that the college football Saturdays that look lame on paper often create the most drama.

Like a pair of top-five teams (Alabama and Tennessee) losing to Vanderbilt and Arkansas, plus Texas A&M crushing Missouri. My weekly Associated Press top 25 ballot, then, felt like a crapshoot outside the top two (Texas and Ohio State).

Where I ranked Alabama

Though the Crimson Tide fell from the top spot in my rankings, I still think they’re the best one-loss team. So, where should I slot them compared to the undefeated squads?

I think Oregon has done enough to be ahead of Alabama. Same with Miami. The Hurricanes’ comeback at Cal was remarkable, especially given the after-dark kickoff and the fact that it was the Golden Bears’ biggest game in a long time.

Then came my line of demarcation. Penn State is still perfect, but the Nittany Lions’ strength of schedule is 95th nationally by one metric, and a tight win over Bowling Green last month gives me pause. Penn State’s marquee games are coming, starting with this week against USC. For now, I don’t feel confident putting the Nittany Lions ahead of Alabama. That means ‘Bama fell to fifth, one spot ahead of Georgia.

Another factor I considered: Based on stats from the game, ESPN’s analytics said Vanderbilt had less than a 2% chance of the upset. That suggests it was a statistical anomaly.

Where should Tennessee be ranked?

The Volunteers were in a similar boat. Tennessee had been one of the most impressive teams with three blowouts and a double-digit win at Oklahoma. But blowing a 14-3 second-half lead is concerning.

I settled on dropping the Vols two spots to seventh (again, just ahead of Penn State). Part of my decision stemmed from the fact that Arkansas (4-2) might be good; the Razorbacks’ close loss to Texas A&M looks better after the Aggies blew out Missouri.

That 31-point triumph moved the Aggies up 13 spots to 12th on my ballot. Some of that jump is a product of what happened elsewhere (losses by USC and Michigan), but Texas A&M has rebounded well from its Week 1 loss to Notre Dame.

Other AP top 25 thoughts

Clemson moved up four to 11th after winning by double digits at Florida State. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers make the playoff.

Indiana soared eight spots to 16th. The Hoosiers are 6-0 and have beaten every opponent by at least two scores. A weak schedule weighs them down, but it’s hard to keep churning out double-digit victories like this.

Michigan dropped 10 spots but stayed on my ballot at 22nd after losing at Washington. Why? Because the Wolverines have wins over USC and Minnesota (which just beat USC). I think the Trojans are worthy of being ranked, and advanced metrics tend to agree. If I’m going to rank USC, I have to rank Michigan given those relevant performances.

SMU’s win at Louisville put the Mustangs on my ballot and knocked Louisville out. Arizona dropped out after a loss to Texas Tech. Utah is gone, too; its loss to Arizona looks worse, and its best win was to an Oklahoma State team that has dropped three in a row.

My final spots went to 5-0 Pitt and Vanderbilt. The Commodores earned that ranking by beating Alabama, of course, but I also justified it by looking at their two losses (one in double-overtime to Missouri, another in the last 15 seconds to Georgia State). Among the other teams I considered: Army, Navy, Colorado, Tulane, Washington, Arkansas and Illinois.

Matt Baker’s AP Top 25 ballot

1. Texas

2. Ohio State

3. Oregon

4. Miami

5. Alabama

6. Georgia

7. Tennessee

8. Penn State

9. Mississippi

10. Notre Dame

11. Clemson

12. Texas A&M

13. LSU

14. Iowa State

15. BYU

16. Indiana

17. Kansas State

18. Missouri

19. Oklahoma

20. Boise State

21. SMU

22. Michigan

23. USC

24. Pitt

25. Vanderbilt